Shinjiro KANAE, Prof.

, Department of Civil Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology

Monitoring, RemoteSensing
Satellite Remote-sensing
Climate Change Simulation

Weather Forecast

In-situ Monitoring
Warnings

Data Integration Assimilation

Land Hydrological Modeling

Future Projection

Socio-Economic Information

Disaster Risk Reduction

Sustainable Future Planning

Social and Land use change

Climate Change
Modeling & Numerical Simulation & Application Application: Water resources assessment Flood risk assessment Drought risk

Global Water Resources Assessment and Virtual Water Trade

Shinjiro Kanae Department of Civil Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology
3

Water Crisis?
In August 1995, Dr. Ismail Serageldin warned (Director(?), Library of Alexandria, and Vice President of World Bank in 1995, and (is/was?) a board member of E-JUST.) "if the wars of this century were fought over oil, the wars of the next century will be fought over water.

Aral Sea

The Deminishing Sea

1989 2003

[MODIS, 2003]
Yoshihiro Shibuo, Forskardagarna 2013-06-11

The Aral Sea in 2009

MODIS, May 2009 9

Yoshihiro Shibuo, Forskardagarna

2013-06-11

Yellow River

1990s Flow Termination

: 100-km

250 200

150 100 50 0 1972 1982 1992

1970s (6 ) (km) 521

1980s (7 ) 536

91 16 131

92 83 303

93 60 278

1990s 94 74 308

95 122 683

96 136 579

97 226 700

100300 100660

Freshwater looks Crisis However, water-withdrawal (water-use) is about 4000 km3/year which is only 10% of water availability = about 40,000 km3/year.

Why water scarcity? Why water crisis?

I want to have your opinion.

A hint: Water Cycle

Oki and Kanae, 2006, Science

Characteristics of water availability

Amount (km3/yr) Precipitation111,000 Runoff 45,500
(incl. GW recharge)

Renewable resources

Oil coal

water

Evaporation: 65,500 Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int. Uneven spatial distribution

Stock (not renewable) Flow (renewable)

Uneven temporal distribution

Upper Chao Phraya River in Thailand streamflow

Oki and Kanae, 2006, Science

Fekete et al., 2002, Global Biogeochem. Cy.

14

Characteristics of water use

Water withdrawalkm3/yr Increase of water use [km3/yr]
Water Withdrawal
3200 2400 1600 800

Total withdrawal3,800 Domestic Industrial 380 770

Agricultural 2,660

World Agricultural Industrial Domestic 2000 2025

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

1900

1950

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

Uneven spatial distribution

Uneven temporal distribution

Rice crop calendar in the Chao Phraya Delta in Thailand streamflow

Main crop

2nd crop

Population of the world

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw

15

Uneven Water Availability (Monthly)

Uneven water availability (= daily river discharge)

Answer to why water scarcity in the world?

[As I already introduced], spatio-temporal variability of water-availability and spatio-temporal variability of water-use. (Not the total amount, but the mismatch/imbalance)
Water should be a cheap resource. Water is a resource, if it is available at a place where it is required, at a time when required, with a quality better than required, with sufficient/vast amount, and at a low enough cost.

Another point to mention

How to assess the imbalance between water-availability and water-use?

(= water resources assessment)

How to compute water scarcity/stress

Population Country-based GDP Statistics of Landuse water use Irrigation area
Hydrological
Model

Global river map

W: water withdawal

(water availability)

Q: river discharge

W/Q

Water Stress/Scarcity

(A conventional) water scarcity/stress index

Several indices have been proposed to quantify water scarcity (water stress).
Water scarcity index = Mean annual water withdrawal (water use) Mean annual runoff (water availability)

Oki and Kanae, 2006, Science

High water stress

21

Characteristics of water use

Water withdrawalkm3/yr Increase of water use [km3/yr]
Water Withdrawal
3200 2400 1600 800

Total withdrawal3,800 Domestic Industrial 380 770

Agricultural 2,660

World Agricultural Industrial Domestic 2000 2025

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

1900

1950

Shiklomanov, 2000, Water Int.

Uneven spatial distribution

Uneven temporal distribution

Rice crop calendar in the Chao Phraya Delta in Thailand streamflow

Main crop

2nd crop

Population of the world

http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw

22

World Food Production and Supply Food, Population, and Water

2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1960

Ratio to the 1961 Value

irrigated land, which is 16% of cropland, produces 40% of crops

Population-Estimates Agricultural Area Irrigated Area Area Harv: Cereals, Total Yield: Cereals, Total Production: Cereals, Total Cal/Cap/Day

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

(based on FAOSTAT & AQUASTAT)

Future Projection of water withdrawal (based on IPCC SRES scenarios)

12000 10000
A1b A2 B1 B2

10146 8891 7318 6202 6634 5717 5938 5167 3824 3188 5283 6323 5234 6753

Withdrawal (km3/y)

8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1960

2615

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

(Shen et al., Hydro. Sci. J., 2008)

Virtual Water
Professor John Anthony Allan from Kings College London and the School of Oriental and African Studies has been named the 2008 Stockholm Water Prize Laureate. Professor Allan pioneered the development of key concepts in the understanding and communication of water issues and how they are linked to agriculture, climate change, economics and politics.
People do not only consume water when they drink it or take a shower. In 1993, Professor Allan, 71, strikingly demonstrated this by introducing the virtual water concept, which measures how water is embedded in the production and trade of food and consumer products.

The Question on VWT

Is Virtual Water Trade bad/guilty or good/encouraged?

26

Virtual Water refers to the water used in the production of a good or service, in the context of trade.
(wikipedia)

28

Which is the largest? Which is the smallest?

Required Water for Fast Food

Beef Bowl Hamburger Sandwich Chicken Burger Buckwheat noodle Pasta (Udon)

Regular JY280

2 regular Small Fries JY268

Teriyaki Burger Regular Fries JY430

With Egg JY300

Plain JY290

710kcal

745kcal

911kcal

377kcal

341kcal

530L 1890L 2020L

750L

120L

(M. Sato, 2003, Thesis, The Univ. of Tokyo.)

Total Imported VW of Japan

Etc 33

Figure 49 389
140

14 22 13 3 3

Unit = 0.1 billion m3/ (m3/year)

25 36 22 13 145

Pork

Maize

Beef
Bean
121 20 24

89

25
Wheat
94

Rice

Total Import64 billion m3

Japanese Water for Irrigation59 billion

Unit Requirement of Water --Crops-(m3/t)

3,600

2,600 2,500

2,000 1,900

Unit Water Requirement of Major Crops

(based on crop yield in JapanFAOSTAT mean 1996-2000)

0
Beef

Unit Water Requirement Meat 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

5,900 4,100 4,500 3,000 3,200 14,400

(m3/t)

25,000

20,600

Whole Beef
Pork

Whole Pork Poultry Whole Poultry

Egg

560 m3/t for milk

Unit Water Requirement of Major Meat

(based on crop yield and the way of raising in Japan)

Model life of a cow

Dairy Cow Beef Cattle

Virtually Required Water Trade between Regions in 2000 (cereals only)

78.5

USSR

North America

Western Europe 38.8North West Africa Central Caribbean

33.5Middle

East
57.5

East & South East Asia South Asia

America
36.4

South America

West Africa

46.2

Oceania

Importer based, over 5 km3/y

km3/y
1~5 5~10 10~15

15~20

20~30

30~50

50<

(Based on Statistics from FAO etc., for 2000)

Virtual Water Balance in Countries (m3/c/y) in 2000

Major crops and meat Blue: Exporting Red: Importing

Exporting

Importing

What do you find in this figure??

Or, in the previous figure??

The Question
Is Virtual Water Trade bad/guilty or good/encouraged? As far as I know, in Egypt, about a half of consumed water is virtual water.
35

Water in the environment/socioeconomic development discourse: sustainability, changing management paradigms and policy responses
Kings College London/SOAS Water Research Group

Tony Allan

Virtual water solves the big water problem without armed conflict But it seriously sub-optimises MENA water policy-making, as its ready and subsidised availability makes it appear that the availability of water is a future problem
MENA = Middle East North Africa

38

Nexus among Water, Energy, and Food

Water
?
? ? ? ?

Energy
?

Food

39

Nexus among Water, Energy, and Food

Desalination Pumping Purification Hydropower Cooling bio-fuel irrigation

Water

virtual water trade

Energy
Cultivation/Fertilizer

Food

AS A SUMMARY, IF ITS POSSIBLE,

I MAY LET YOU LISTEN TO AN AUDIO.

40

The Question
Is Virtual Water Trade bad/guilty or good/encouraged?

41

Globalization Efficiency

42

Water in the environment/socioeconomic development discourse: sustainability, changing management paradigms and policy responses
Kings College London/SOAS Water Research Group

Tony Allan

It requires 1000 tonnes (m3) of water to produce a tonne of wheat. Importing a tonne of wheat means that 1000 m3 of water does not have to be mobilised locally

Virtual water

Types of water
Small water - 10% for drinking, domestic use and industry comes from freshwater Big water - 90% for food - can come from freshwater or soil water

Two orders of scarcity 1 The water scarcity 2 The scarcity of adaptive capacity

Coping with water scarcity The second order scarcity is much more important than the scarcity of the water.

Virtual water is a politicians dream. It is economically invisible and politically silent. All those allocating scarce resources, at whatever level of management, want invisible and silent solutions.

Virtual water solves the big water problem without armed conflict But it seriously sub-optimises MENA water policy-making, as its ready and subsidised availability makes it appear that the availability of water is a future problem
MENA = Middle East North Africa

Virtual water slows the adoption of innovative policies to use water economically and with environmental consideration

10000m3

Water resource status of the economy 1000m3 [m3 ppy as an indicator]

Water rich but adaptively poor

Water rich and adaptively rich

10m3 The two $10 ppy $1000 ppy $100000 ppy dimensions of water Adaptive status of the economy & society poverty [Annual GDP per head as an indicator]

Water poor and adaptively poor

Water poor and adaptively rich

52

Another similar concept

Water Footprint Very simply speaking, really required water is water footprint.

53

Virtual Water import and the external Water Footprint

Importing country (Japan)
Wheat 1000kg 1600kg 1kg 1000kg 1kg

Exporting country (USA, Canada)

VW import to Japan1,600,000 kg (of water) External WF of Japan: 1,000,000 kg (of water) WF of USA, Canada: 1,000,000 kg (of water)
Term Virtual water import1 The external water footprint2 Definition the volume of water that is virtually needed to produce commodities in an importing country the volume of water consumption required to produce commodities in an exporting country

Virtually Saved Water in the World

VW and WF (crop & meat) 1961-2000
12000 10000

/ km3 /y x0.1

8000 6000 4000 2000 0

In 2000 WF: Really Required Water: 680km 3 Virtually Required Water: 1,130km3 Saved 450km3

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

Cf. Total Agricultural Water Usage in 2000: 3,270 km3

Y ear Real Virtual Saved

Virtually Requied Water = Sum of Importing VW in each country (1), WF: Really Requied Water = Sum of Exporting RW in each country (2), Saved = (1)-(2) (Oki and Kanae, 2004)

1999