A simulation

imitates a real situation Is supposed to give similar results And so acts as a predictor of what should actually happen It is a model in which repeated experiments are carried out for the purpose of estimating in real life

Used to solve problems using experiments when it is difficult to calculate theoretically Often involves either the calculation of:
The long-run relative frequency of an event happening The average number of visits taken to a full-set

Often have to make assumptions about situations being simulated. E.g. there is an equal chance of producing a boy or a girl

Maths online

AC/on RUN <Exe> OPTN F6 PROB Ran#

1.

To Simulate tossing of a coin

Ran#
Heads: 0.000 000 -0.499 999 Tails: 0.500 000 0.999 999

2.

To simulate LOTTO balls

1+40Ran#, truncate the result to 0 d.p., or 0.5+40Ran#, truncate the result to 0 d.p.

3. To simulate an event which has 14% chance of success

100Ran#, truncate the result to 0 d.p.

0 13 for success, 14-99 for failure, or

1+100Ran#, truncate the result to 0 d.p.

1-14 for success, 15-100 for failure

Assume each day has equal probability (1/7) Use spreadsheet function RANDBETWEEN(1,7) Generate 4 random numbers to simulate one family Repeat large number of times

Day of the week Sunday Monday Tuesday

Random Number 1 2 3

Wednesda 4 y Thursday Friday Saturday 5 6 7

The description of a simulation should contain at least the following four aspects:

Tools
Definition of the probability tool, eg. Ran#, Coin, deck of cards, spinner Statement of how the tool models the situation

Trials

Definition of a trial Definition of a successful outcome of the trial

Statement of how the results will be tabulated giving an example of a successful outcome and an unsuccessful outcome Statements of how many trials should be carried out

Results

Calculations Statement of how the calculation needed for the conclusion will be done Number of successful results Long-run relative frequency =
Number of trials

Mean =

Number of successful results Number of trials

Tool: First digit using calculator 1+10Ran# Odd Numbers stands for Boy and Even Number stands for Girl Trial: One trial will consist of generating 4 random numbers to simulate one family. A Successful trial will have 2 odd and 2 even numbers. Results: Trial Outcome of Result of trial
trial 1 2 2357 4635 Unsuccessful Successful

Number of Trials needed: 30 would be sufficient Calculation: Number of successful results Probability of 2 boys & 2 girls = Number of trials

Tool: Generate random numbers between 1 & 6 (inclusive), each number

stands for each toy.

Trial: One trial will consist of generating random numbers till all
numbers from 1 to 6 have been generated.
Count the number of random numbers need to get one full set

Results:

Trial Toy 1 1 2 Y Y

Toy 2 Y Y

Toy 3 Y Y

Toy 4 Y Y

Toy5 Y Y

Toy6 Y Y

Tally

Total Visits 10 19

Number of Trials needed: 30 would be sufficient

Calculation:
Average number of visits = Total visits Number of trials

Tool: The probability that Mary guesses a question true is one half. First digit using calculator 1 + 10Ran# 1to 5 stands for correct answer 6 to 10 stands for incorrect answer Trial: One trial will consist of generating 3 random numbers to simulate Mary answering one complete test. A successful outcome will be getting atleast 2 of the 3 random numbers between 1 and 5.
Results: Trial
1 2 Outcome of Trial 122 167 Result of Trial Successful trial Unsuccessful trial

Number of Trials needed: 30 would be sufficient Calculation: Estimate of probability of passing the exam =
Number of successful results Number of trials

The probability that Mary guesses a question true is one half. First digit using calculator 1 + 10Ran# 1to 5 stands for correct answer 6 to 10 stands for incorrect answer Trial: One trial will consist of generating 8 random numbers to simulate Mary answering one complete test. A successful outcome will be getting atleast 4 of the 8 random numbers between 1 and 5. Results: Trial Outcome of Trial Result of Trial
1 2 12236754 13672987 Successful trial Unsuccessful trial

Tool:

Number of Trials needed: 30 would be sufficient Calculation: Number of successful results Estimate of probability of passing the exam = Number of trials

Problem:
Lotto 40 balls and to win you must select 6 in any order. In this mini Lotto, there are only 6 balls and you win when you select 2 numbers out of the 6. Design and run your own simulation to estimate the probability of winning (i.e. selecting 2 numbers out of the 6) Calculate the theoretical probability of winning.

Tool: 4) Trial:

Two numbers (between 1 and 6) will need to be selected first (say 2 & First digit using calculator 1 + 6Ran#, ignore the decimals. One trial will consist of generating 2 random numbers Discard any repeat numbers A successful outcome will be getting 2 of the 6 random numbers generated
Trial 1 2 Outcome of Trial 24 13 Result of Trial Successful trial Unsuccessful trial

Results:

Number of Trials needed: 50 would be sufficient Calculation: Estimate of probability of winning = Number of successful outcome Number of trials Theoretical probability in this case is 1/15