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Time
Problem - 1
Activity Optimistic Most Likely time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 Pessimistic time 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 3. 1. Draw Network Diagram
2.
Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average time 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33
Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average Standard time deviation 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4
Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average Standard time deviation 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4 Variance 4 4 16 1 4 4 16 1 16
Problem 1 . . . contd
14 5
11 7
1-2-3-5-8 = 7 + 14 + 11 + 4 = 36 1-2-4-5-8 = 7 + 5 + 7 + 4 = 23
11.33 7
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Problem 1 . . . contd
Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic time time time 1-2 1-6 2-3 2-4 3-5 4-5 6-7 5-8 7-8 3 2 6 2 5 3 3 1 4 6 5 12 5 11 6 9 4 9 15 14 30 8 17 15 27 7 28 Average Standard time deviation 7 6 14 5 11 7 11 4 11.33 2 2 4 1 2 2 4 1 4 Variance 4 4 16 1 4 4 16 1 16
Sum of variances of critical activities = 4 + 16 + 4 + 1 = 25 Standard deviation = square root of sum of variances = 5
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Problem 2 (Practice)
Activity Preceding Activity a b c
A
B C D E
A B
2
8 3 2 2
4
8 15 14 8
3
8 8 5 2
F
G H 1. 2. 3.
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C
D,E F,G
1
1 6
5
3 14
3
2 10
Draw Network Diagram Find Project Duration Calculate Standard deviation & variance
10
E
F G H
B
C D,E F,G
2
1 1 6
8
5 3 14
2
3 2 10
3
3 2 10
1
0.67 0.33 1.33
1
0.44 0.11 1.78
11
1
8 C 8.33
F
4 3 6
H
7 10
12
Sum of variances of critical activities = 0 + 1 + 0.11 + 1.78 = 2.89 Standard deviation = square root of sum of variances = 1.70
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Normal Distribution
x-
Z =
0.5 0.5
Z
0 0.5
Z
1
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Problem - 3
Time in weeks
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 2-5 3-5 4-5 4-6 5-6 Pessimistic 21 27 8 3.5 10 1.7 9 5 Most likely 7.5 8 8 2 10 1 7.5 3 Optimistic 3 3 8 0.5 10 0.3 3 1
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Problem 3 . . contd
Activity 1-2 1-3 2-4 2-5 3-5 4-5 4-6 5-6 Pessimistic 21 27 8 3.5 10 1.7 9 5 Most likely 7.5 8 8 2 10 1 7.5 3 Optimistic 3 3 8 0.5 10 0.3 3 1 Average 9 10.33 8 2 10 1 7.00 3 Std Deviation 3 4 0 0.5 0 0.23 1 0.67 Variance 9 16 0 0.25 0 0.05 1 0.44
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Problem 3 . . contd
1. 2. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it What is the expected project completion time 1-2-4-6 = 9 + 8 + 7 = 24 2 8 9 7 2 3 10 5 4 1-2-4-5-6 = 9 + 8 + 1 + 3 = 21 1-2-5-6 = 9 + 2 + 3 = 14 6 3
1
10.33
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Problem 3 . . contd
3. What is the expected project completion time with a confidence of 90%
Activity 1-2 Pessimistic 21 Most likely 7.5 Optimistic 3 Average 9 Std Deviation 3 Variance 9
1-3
2-4 2-5
27
8 3.5
8
8 2
3
8 0.5
10.33
8 2
4
0 0.5
16
0 0.25
3-5
4-5 4-6 5-6
10
1.7 9 5
10
1 7.5 3
10
0.3 3 1
10
1 7.00 3
0
0.23 1 0.67
0
0.05 1 0.44
Variance = 9 + 0 + 1 = 10
Z = (x - ) /
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Problem 3 . . contd
x-
Z =
0.5 0.5
Z
0 0.5 0.4 1
x = 28.05 weeks
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Problem 4 (Practice)
Data: = 25 days, = 1 What is the expected project completion time with confidence of 88% x-
Z =
0.5 0.5
Z
0 0.5 0.38 1
x = 26.17 days
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Problem - 5
Time in weeks
Activity A Preceding activity a 1 b 3 c 5
B
C D
A A
2
3 5
4
6 6
6
15 7
E
F G
C
D B
5
6 7
7
8 9
9
10 11
E, F,G
1. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it 2. What is the expected project completion time 3. Find the probability of completing the project no more than 4 weeks later than expected
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Problem 5 . . contd
Time in weeks
Activity A B C D E F G H Preceding activity A A C D B E, F,G a 1 2 3 5 5 6 7 2 b 3 4 6 6 7 8 9 3 c 5 6 15 7 9 10 11 4 T 3 4 7 6 7 8 9 3 0.67 0.67 2 0.33 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.33 Variance 0.44 0.44 4 0.11 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.11
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Problem 5 . . contd
1. 2. Draw the network diagram and identify the paths through it What is the expected project completion time C 7 6 D 5 B 4 3 G 9 8 6 H 3 7 F E 7
2 A 3
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Problem 5 . . contd
3. Find the probability of completing the project no more than 4 weeks later than expected
Activity
A B
Preceding activity
-
a
1 2
b
3 4
c
5 6
T
3 4
0.67 0.67
Variance
0.44 0.44
C
D E
A
A C
3
5 5
6
6 7
15
7 9
7
6 7
2
0.33 0.67
4
0.11 0.44
F
G H
D
B E, F,G
6
7 2
8
9 3
10
11 4
8
9 3
0.67
0.67 0.33
0.44
0.44 0.11
()1 = 20
Problem 5 . . contd
x - 1
Z1 =
1
Z1 = (24 20) / 2.23 Z1 = 1.785
0.5
0.5
Hence
So, probability of completing the project in not more than 4 weeks later than expected duration = 0.5 + 0.4625 = 0.9625 = 96.25%
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Problem 5 . . contd
x - 2
Z2 =
2
Z2 = (24 20) / 1.053 Z2 = 3.80
0.5
0.5
Hence
So, probability of completing the project in not more than 4 weeks later than expected duration = 0.5 + 0.4999 = 0.9999 = 99.99%
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Problem - 6
Data: Expected project duration = 36 days Standard deviation = 5 Find: a) The probability that project will take more than 41 days b) The probability that project will be completed in 31 days or less time
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Problem 6 . . contd
a) The probability that project will take more than 41 days x-
Z = Hence
0.5 0.5
Z
0 36 41 1
Probability that project will take more than 41 days = 0.5 0.3413 = 0.1587 = 15.87%
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Problem 6 . . contd
b) The probability that project will be completed in 31 days or less time x-
Z =
Hence
0.5 0.5
Z
0 31 36 1
Probability that project will take more than 31 days = 0.5 0.3413 = 0.1587 = 15.87%
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Problem - 7
If in a PERT network the expected duration of critical path is 36 months and sum of variances of the activities on the 2 then what is the probability critical path is 25 (months) 2 that the project will be completed not earlier than 30 months and not later than 42 months
= 36 months
Variance = 25 = 5
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Problem - 7 . . contd
Probability that project will be completed not earlier than 30 months x-
Z =
Hence
0.5 0.5
Z
0 30 36 1
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Problem - 7 . . contd
Probability that project will take not more than 42 months x-
Z = Hence
0.5 0.5
Z
0 36 42 1
Probability that project will take not less than 30 months and not more than 42 months = 0.3849 + 0.3849 = 0.7698 = 76.98 %
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