Our Planet: Changing and Sinking

Presented by:

Tathagato Chakraborty

Abrupt variability in observed climatic phenomena. Change in temperature, Ocean level rise, Concentration of GHGs, Glacial retreat. Various causes, the most influential being anthropogenic one. Physical factors are also influenced by the human induced cause.

Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues?

Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago Originally very hot Suns energy output only 70% of present Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years

Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago

Produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) Earth went through periods of cooling (Snowball Earth) and warming

Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago

The Earth is about 33OC warmer than expected if we consider only the amount of solar energy received and reflected. Trace atmospheric gases, H2O and CO2, trap infrared radiation that would otherwise be re-emitted into space. This effect is known as the Greenhouse Effect - the mechanism that keeps greenhouses hotter than we might expect.

Nitrogen (N2) Oxygen (O2)

Water (H2O) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4)

NonGreenhouse Gases 99%

Greenhouse Gases 1%

What changes climate?

Changes in:
Suns output Earths orbit Drifting continents Volcanic eruptions Greenhouse gases

Kilimanjaro 1970

Ice on Kilimanjaro
Area (km2)
15 10 5

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year

Kilimanjaro 2000

Earths climate varies naturally because of a variety of cosmological and geological processes.
Climate change refers to an additional, and relatively rapid, change induced by human actions. The additional change several degrees C within a century will disrupt the foundations of life on Earth.

Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a narrow band of climatic-environmental conditions.

Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000

Atmos CO2 conc Atmos N2O conc Atmos CH4 conc

Atmos ozone loss

Av surface temp (NH)

Climate disasters

Fully exploited fisheries Coastal shrimp farms Coastal N2 flux

Loss of trop forest, woodland Domesticated landGlobal biodiversity

From: Steffen et al. In press 2004

Carbon (109 metric tons)

8 7 6

5
4 3 2 1

Total Liquid fuel Solid fuel Gas fuel

0 1750

1800

1850 1900 Year

1950

2000

Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet 2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles 3 ft: Would inundate Miami Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies Half of the worlds population lives along coasts Big question: Ice sheets

U.K.: Train rails buckle

Germany: Lowest river levels this century France: >14,000 deaths Switzerland: Melting glaciers, avalanches

Portugal: Forest fires

2003 European Heat Wave

1990 IPCC certified the scientific basis for global climate change.
Kyoto Conference in 1997 - 161 countries were represented. Binding emissions targets were set for six greenhouse gases for 38 countries; the goal was to reduce emissions by 5% around 2010. Emissions credit trading was established.

Emissions credit could also be given by helping developing nations reduce emissions through improved technology.

New agreements reached in 2001 in Bonn

The U.S. did not participate. 84 countries signed and 37 countries have ratified the treaty, including the European Union as a bloc, and Japan. The sticking point for the U.S. has been (starting with the Clinton administration) the failure to agree on limits for key developing countries. Russia signed in 2004 in exchange for WTO status

China wants it both ways $ 100B yr-1 promised to developing nations Targets for reductions submitted by 38 countries January 31, 2010 Reducing intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) seems like an end around to me If US and BRIC could reach consensus thats maybe 80% of the problem

Much if not all recent increases in global temperatures are due to anthropogenic sources.
Global temperatures and CO2 concentrations in ice cores are strongly correlated. The shapes of molecules can be understood using VSEPR theory. Only certain vibrations of molecules will absorb infrared radiation and be effective greenhouse gases.

The relative importance of various greenhouse gases is given by their relative abundance and global warming potential.
Controlling population growth and economic development, energy conservation, alternate energy sources, and CO2 sequestration are key elements in mitigating climate change.