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Outline

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Introduction Term Structure Definitions Pure Expectations Theory Liquidity Premium Theory Interpreting the term structure Projecting future bond prices Summary and Conclusions

Introduction

Recall that interest rates are the price of money (borrowing or lending) and, in equilibrium, interest rates equate the amount of borrowing to the amount of saving. The term structure of interest rates refers to different interest rates that exist over different term-to-maturity loans. In the most basic sense, theories to explain the term structure are still based on interest rates equating the supply and demand for loanable funds. Different rates may exist over different terms because of expectations of changing inflation and differing preferences regarding longer-term vs. shorter-term saving. Two main theories exist to enrich this explanation and help explain different rates over different maturity terms.

Introduction (continued)

Sample Term Structure

If we observe r1 = 8%, r2 = 9%, r3 = 9.5%, r4 = 9.75% and 1 2 3 4 5 r5 = 9.875% then the Term to Maturity (Years) current term structure of interest rates is The curve plotted through the above represented by plotting points is also called the yield curve these spot rates against their terms-to-maturity.

8% 7%

Spot Rate

11% 10% 9%

The term structure of interest rates is the relation between different interest rates for different term-to-maturity loans.

The n-period current spot rate of interest denoted rn is the current interest rate (fixed today) for a loan (where the cash is borrowed now) to be repaid in n periods. Note: all spot rates are expressed in the form of an effective interest rate per year. In the example above, r1, r2, r3, r4, and r5, in the previous slide, are all current spot rates of interest. Spot rates are only determined from the prices of zero-coupon bonds and are thus applicable for discounting cash flows that occur in a single time period. This differs from the more broad concept of yield to maturity that is, in effect, an average rate used to discount all the cash flows of a level coupon bond.

The one-period forward rate of interest denoted fn is the interest rate (fixed today) for a one period loan to be repaid at some future time period, n. I.e., the money is borrowed in period n-1 and repaid in period n. E.g., given the data plotted previously, we find f2 = 10.0092593% is the rate agreed upon today for a loan where the money is borrowed in one year and repaid the following year. Note: forward rates are also expressed as effective interest rates per year. Investing $1,000 in the two year zero coupon bond @ r2=9% gives $1,188.10 in 2 yrs. This is equivalent to investing in the one year bond at 8%, giving $1,080 after 1 year, and then investing in another 1 year bond @ X% for the second year to get $1,188.10. Solve for X . . . the forward rate.

To calculate a forward rate, the following equation is useful:

where fn is the one period forward rate for a loan repaid in period n

1 + fn = (1+rn)n / (1+rn-1)n-1

(i.e., borrowed in period n-1 and repaid in period n)

The t-period forward rate for a loan repaid in period n is denoted n-tfn The following formula is useful for calculating t-period forward rates:

E.g., 2f5 is the 3-period forward rate for a loan repaid in period 5 (and borrowed in period 2)

Given the data presented before, determine 1f3 and 2f5 Results: 1f3=10.2577945%; 2f5=10.4622321%

Current spot rates are observable today and can be contracted today. A future spot rate will be the rate for a loan obtained in the future and repaid in a later period. Unlike forward rates, future spot rates will not be fixed (or contracted) until the future time period when the loan begins (forward rates can be locked in today). Thus we do not currently know what will happen to future spot rates of interest. However, if we understand the theories of the term structure, we can make informed predictions or expectations about future spot rates. We denote our current expectation of the future spot rate as follows: E[n-trn] is the expected future spot rate of interest for a loan repaid in period n and borrowed in period n-t.

You are considering locking in your mortgage rate for one year or for five years. You would use the longer term if you thought interest rates would be much higher in one year. I.e., if you expect future spot rates in one year to be much higher, you will choose the longer term mortgage right now so, yes, it matters for your personal life. As a financial manager, you must decide whether your firm should borrow long term or short term. You would prefer to borrow short term as these rates are currently lower, however, you are concerned about what rates you will face when you refinance your loan. I.e., you are concerned about future spot rates at the time you refinance and your expectations will affect your current decision to finance long or short term so, yes, it matters for the corporation.

Notation Review

rn fn

n-tfn

spot rate for a loan negotiated today and repaid in period n forward rate for a one-period loan repaid in period n forward rate for a t-period loan repaid in period n and borrowed in period n-t

E[n-trn] our current expectation for the future spot rate of interest for a t-period loan repaid in period n and borrowed (and contracted) in period n-t.

A flat term structure means constant forward rates equal to todays spot rates and thus Expectations for the same future spot rates as today if you believe in the Pure-Expectations Hypothesis Expectations for declining future spot rates compared to today if you believe in the Liquidity-Preference Hypothesis A declining term structure means declining forward rates and thus Expectations for similarly declining future spot rates under the Pure-Expectations Hypothesis Expectations for more sharply declining future spot rates under the Liquidity-Preference Hypothesis

An increasing term structure means increasing forward rates and thus

Expectations for similarly increasing future spot rates under the PureExpectations Hypothesis Expectations for future spot rates that increase to a lesser degree or possibly remain flat or decrease (depending on the size of the Liquidity Premiums) under the Liquidity-Preference Hypothesis

Consider a three-year bond with annual coupons (paid annually) of $100 and a face value of $1,000 paid at maturity. Spot rates are observed as follows: r1=9%, r2=10%, r3=11% What is the current price of the bond? What is its yield to maturity (as an effective annual rate)? What is the expected price of the bond in 2 years?

assume f3 overstates E[2r3] by 0.5%

The Term Structure of Interest Rates shows the relation between interest rates for different term-tomaturity loans. Two theories to explain the Term Structure are the Pure-Expectations Hypothesis and the LiquidityPreference Hypothesis. Empirical evidence is most consistent with the Liquidity-Preference Hypothesis. Knowledge of the Term Structure and the theories is useful for predicting future interest rates and future bond prices. This is useful for individuals and financial managers when deciding whether long- or short-term loans should be used for financing.

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