Arab Spring

Riots, Rabble and Revolutions: Causes and Consequences

Outline of talk
I.

What is a revolution? Does the Arab Spring constitute a revolution? II. The Arab Spring in comparative perspective

A. Causes B. The fate of revolutionary movements

III. The possible outcome of the Arab Spring Scenarios for the future

I. What is a revolution? What is in a name?

Industrial revolution (Britain 1750s on) Social revolution (the 1960s) Cultural revolution (again the 1960s; China) Political revolutions (American 1776, French 1789; USSR 1917, etc.etc.) Revolution in military affairs (todays high tech warfare)

Narrowing the field: Revolutions that involve political change

A working definition of political revolution (Jack Goldstone)

"an effort to transform the political institutions and the justifications for political authority in society.. accompanied by formal or informal mass mobilization and noninstitutionalized actions that undermine authorities."

But even then Types of Political Revolutions:

Republican

revolutions

(English 1640; American 1776; French 1789) (Russia 1917, China 1949)

Marxist

Against

dictatorship
communism

(Iran 1979)

Against

(East Europe, USSR 1989)

Mapping revolutions is thus complex:

Multiple dimensions are involved Revolutions are short and intensebut what is the relevant time frame? Sometimes multiple revolutions within the same time span (6 in France 1789-1800) We only get a full picture in hindsight. Thus: The owl of minerva

II. Revolutions in Comparative Perspective

Thinking

about the Arab Spring by reflecting on clearcut cases of revolution:

England 1640-1649; American Revolution 1776-1783 French Revolution (1789-?) Russian Revolution 1917 (March and October);

A. Causes of Revolutions

1. External context and pressure: Economic pressures and taxation (American; French; English 1640) International war (English 1640, Russian 1917), Turkish WW I); Colonial intrusion (Japan and Meji transformation post 1853) Globalization today? (USSR 1991)

2. Existing internal structural tension

Economic divisions (class tensions; unemployed, etc) Groups that lack political voice (Colonies vs. Metropole) Inherited privilege vs. meritocracy (French bourgeois vs. feudal prerogatives, 1789) Groups excluded from economic opportunity or appointments (corruption)

B. What is at stake in revolutionary episodes?

Moments of Madness(Aristide Zolberg)

Everything appears possible because political events change human consciousness (Christopher Hill on English Revolutionthe rise of Ranters, Levellers, Diggers)

The world turned upside down

Two important interim conclusions

1. Revolutions create space for alternative conceptions of social, political, and cultural order fundamental transformation of society, culture and politics

 2.

Revolutions create opportunities for a) Charismatic leaders

Non-routine, not rule bound, and not beholden to their followers The charismatic leader advances an alternative comprehensive world view, a new future The leader re-defines the realm of the possible

b) Organizations and institutions that have a comprehensive alternative view

The Communist partys Iron Vanguard of the Revolution Religious organizations (Islamic theocracy in the wake of Iranian Revolution 1979)

C. The Fate of Revolutionary Movements

External Pressure and Structural tensions

Discontented groups
Demands on govt.

Govt. reforms or resists

Revolutionary movement wins the struggle

Success then disunity

Revolutionary stages
Impetus

behind the revolution: External pressure plus pre-existing internal disaffected groups
Often not the poor or dispossessed but intermediate or rising groups without voice

1st phase: limited demands:

e.g. 1789 French bourgeois revolution. (anti-feudal) Broad alliance of disaffected groups Easy to define what one is against

The monarchy, dictatorship, absolutist rule, since they bundle all authority

2nd phase. Various scenarios Government meets demands (controlled reform) revolution is averted Government succeeds in repressionrevolution is suspended but latent Government falls--moderates ascend3rd phase commences

3rd phase: Moderates cannot fulfill demands.

Challenges by conservatives and radicals Difficulty in re-aligning with conservatives or crushing revolutionary comrades Moderates have broad membership (loose alliance) vs. radicals with unifying ideology (sometimes charismatic leadership) Short time frame for moderates to demonstrate change

4th phase: Radicals ascend

E.g.: Cromwell; Robespierre in French Revolution). Agitation against counter-revolutionaries; revisionists Rhetorical and political moves against the moderates. Political Outbidding

Language of the Chinese Cultural Revolution revisionist dogs=USSR; imperial lackeys=those accused of being pro western or pro-dtente; public trials; public self criticism; neighbor surveillance

5th phase: Dictatorship but less radical in intent.

Radicals turn on each other and the revolution burns itself out Revolution turns external (nationalist fervor)

D. Where does the Arab Spring fit?

Is

it a revolution?
Yes (multiple dimensions; large group mobilization; existing political hierarchy has been challenged) Self description by the participants as a revolutionary movement: The intent to overthrow the regime and transform society, culture

E. Causes of the Arab Spring?

1.

External pressure: economic retardation Rank of some MENA countries in economic development

Rank in unemployment rate (CIA 2010): Egypt 101; Tunisia 136; Libya 176; Yemen 181; Gaza strip 183; But particularly high among the young and educated Inflation: Algeria 128;Tunisia 128; Syria 129; S.Arabia 155; Gaza 163; West Bank 168; Egypt 205 (11 %)

Perception

of relative stagnation

 2.

Internal dissatisfaction Corruption rankings (Transparency International)

Tunisia 73: Morocco 80; Algeria and Egypt 112 (tied); Yemen 164; Libya 168;

Age distribution (Egypt 33% younger than 14 years, Syria 35 % compare US 20%; Germany 13%) Lack of democratic input (Syrian Assad family in power since 1970)

Unrest due to the gap between rising expectations and outcomes

Educational opportunities improved in some countries but not economic upward mobility. In Tunisia in 2001 those with higher education (college) and those with no to little education faced an 11 % unemployment rate. By 2010 almost 25 % of those with higher education were unemployed, compared to 6 % of those will little education.

E. What next? What might unfold in the MENA region?

Politicians

and predictions

Do political scientists fare better?

Steven Weber on business cycles (1997) crisis

Global capital markets are increasingly efficient at managing risk, and providing shock absorbers that cushion economic fluctuations. And the wider array of funding sources and more sophisticated risk management techniques are stabilizers for a globalizing economy.

 Oops

Nevertheless:

can we integrate the Arab Spring in a wider understanding of revolutionary movements and ask intelligent questions about the future?

III. Possible outcomes of the Arab Spring. Concerns for Democracy

General

point made earlier: Charismatic leaders and strong organizations win out in revolutionary struggles Who are the leaders and institutions with alternative, comprehensive views? Who are well organized?

Islamic groups, e.g. Egypt:

Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) 77 of 156 parliamentary seats Salafists (Sunni but traditionalist) Salafi alliance 33 of 156 seats

Salafists tend not to be politically involved as long as the leader adheres to the faith. If the leader does not then violent opposition is legitimate. There is no clear line of distinction between Salafists and the membership of the Muslim Brotherhood. (Jonathan Brown)

Tunisia: Ennahda party 89 of 217 seats

But prior to elections polled only at 20 % Conclusion: ability to mobilize the vote (Other parties 2nd largest CPR, Center-Left-Secular 29 seats, Aridha-former govt?- 26)

Why have Islamic groups been successful?

Natural

organizational structure (religious leadership; historical roots) Comprehensive world view in many aspects Cross link with multiple social functions (charities, etc.) Discipline and voter turn out

Ennahda polled 20 % in Tunisia but got almost 40% of the vote, similar development in Egypt with Muslim Brothers and Salafi alliance

 The

Military

Algerian response to Islamic parties Traditionally highly respected

In Egypt: external wars with Israel Residue from colonial liberation struggles (Tunisia, Morrocco, Algeria)

Both

Islamic parties and Armed Forces might become obstacles to fundamental democratic reform

B.) Why should we care about democratic reform in MENA?

1. Democratic Peace Theory 2. Normative concern with human rights

Richard Williamson: the Freedom Agenda.

3. The effects of repressive regimes spill across borders

Refugee flows

C. Do revolutions have to end up in radicalism or authoritarianism ? Can Democracy take root?

The

American Revolution !

But is the U.S. an exception given the exit of the opposition? Opponents left.

American

Revolution does provide other insights

Content of ideas? Presence of alternative conceptions of order Institutional design Role of third parties?

Other positive scenarios for the future?

Another wave of democracy ? (East European transformation) But there:

Consensus on available alternative model (liberal democracy and capitalism) Existing societal networksrapid party formation Third party support (US, EU extension)

Many of the East European characteristics are not present

multiple rival conceptions of order in MENA societal capital available (Putnams Bowling clubs and democracy)but not proto democratic institutions instead religious groups etc. Limited role for western third parties

Models?
Algerian

model ?

Military rule with oil rents

Turkish

model?

Some questions about future of democracy there (journalists in prison; roll back of womens rights; policy towards Israel, Iran)

Theocracy

? (Iran, some groups in Iraq)

D. Conclusions from Political Science Research (A. Roberts)

1.Economic

wealth correlates with democracy

2.

Less clear conclusions on which institutions lead to economic development

3. Competing arguments whether external intervention can help create democracy 4. A slight majority believes Islam does NOT harm prospects for democracy

E). Factors that influence possible democracy in MENA

1. One Arab Spring?

The diversity in the MENA region Monarchical dynasties (Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Morocco) Homogeneity (Egypt) vs. multiple identities (religious, linguistic, ethnic, tribal, clan) Natural resources (oil haves and have nots) Role of the military Secular nature of government (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya) and religious standing (Saudi Arabia)

2. Some key differences

Monarchical dynasties
Limited

reforms in Jordan, Morocco, Gulf and Saudi Arabia in response to limited demands One exception: Bahrain (Sunni minority and Shia majority)

Homogeneity of the population

Homogeneity

is not a pre-condition for democracy. Heterogeneous countries can be democratic (US, Canada, India, etc.) However this depends to some extent on:

Overarching national identification Crosscutting rather than overlapping and reinforcing cleavages (e.g. economic differences should not overlap with religious) Political power sharing among different groups

Natural resources (oil) curse or blessing?

Economic

consequences of oil

The Dutch disease: Inflationary pressures Displaces investment in manufacturing, production, etc Forestalls fiscal adjustment (overly generous welfare payments) Of 23 developing countries reliant on natural resource exports, only 2 had annual growth rates over 2% between 1970-1995.

Political consequences of oil rents

1. Can lead to conflict if unequally distributed (Nigeria) 2. Allows for poor economic policy as long as oil prices remain high (Venezuela) 3. Can entrench oligarchy

Political consequences of oil rents

The long shadow of Magna Carta !!

What??
(61) SINCE WE HAVE GRANTED ALL THESE THINGS for God, for the better ordering of our kingdom, and to allay the discord that has arisen between us and our barons, we give and grant to the barons the following security: The barons shall elect twenty-five of their number to keep, and cause to be observed with all their might, the peace and liberties granted and confirmed to them by this charter.

Taxation and representation

Baronial control over the monarch, the royal councils prerogative to confer and discuss (parler) No taxation without parliamentary approval Baronial tax exemption absolutism

(Absolutist France, Spain, Eastern Europe)

Oil rents limit the need for taxation, thus limited demands for input and voice Oil rents allow rulers to make sidepayments to opponents (Saudi Arabia) or concede economic benefits while limiting political reform Oil (natural resources) correlates negatively with democracy No taxation no representation !!

The role of the military

Egypt:

military controls 5-40% of the economy (Marina Ottoway) Dominant political position Affinity with U.S. armed forces (positive) If democratic reform diminishes their role in favor of Islamists their support for democratic reform might weaken (Algerian scenario)

E) New revolutionary dynamics

1. The collective Action Problem

Rebellion comes at individual cost, overall social benefit free ride Overcoming the collective action problem: leadership and prior organization Knowledge of co-actionists; knowledge of central governments reaction The role of new technology?

2. Tipping points and cascade effects: authoritarianism is easier to challenge

Is communications technology a sufficient glue for a loose revolutionary movement?

Home Secretary Theresa May was to chair a discussion with companies including BlackBerry, whose encrypted instant chat service took much of the blame for allowing rioters to coordinate the four nights of unrest in EnglandSocial networking sites Facebook and Twitter would also be represented at the central London meeting, said a statement from the Home Office.

(Associated Press August 2011)

New communications can serve as a means of mobilization, but also undirected mobs. They might serve as a check on undemocratic developments but perhaps not as a long term organizing force

Final observations
Historically

most revolutions get captured by well organized groups led by charismatic leaders Who will be these organized groups in MENA? How do various Islamic movements comport with democracy?

Outcomes across the MENA region will differ

Monarchical dynasties with oil, will likely engage in limited reforms Heterogeneous societies (Libya) will face multiple challenges Heterogenous societies with oil might be particularly difficult to govern (Iraq; Sudan) External interventions can bring regimes down but not necessarily create a democracy