Mutually Exclusive Events

Events do not occur

simultaneously

A and B does not contain
any sample points, thus
P(A B) = 0
+
Mutually Exclusive Events
1
S
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example
Events + andv are Mutually Exclusive
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Suit.
Outcomes
in event
Heart:
2
v
, 3
v
, 4
v
, ..., A
v
Sample
Space:
2
v
, 2
+
,
2
+
, ..., A
+
Event Spade:
2
+
, 3
+
, 4
+
, ..., A
+
2
EXAMPLE

New England Commuter Airways recently
supplied the following information on their
commuter flights from Boston to New York:

Arrival Frequency
Early 100
On Time 800
Late 75
Canceled 25
Total 1000


EXAMPLE continued
If A is the event that a flight arrives early, then
P(A) = 100/1000 = 0.10

If B is the event that a flight arrives late, then:
P(B) = 75/1000 = 0.075
The probability that a flight is either early or late is:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
= 0 .10 + 0.075 0 = 0.175
Note :
P(AB) = 0 because a plane cannot be early and late at the same
time so they are mutually exclusive events.

Conditional Probability
5
Conditional Probability
1. Probability that an event will occur given that
another event has already occurred
2. If A and B are two events, then the conditional
probability of A given B is written as
3.
P(A | B)
and read as the probability of A given that B has
already occurred or known.
6
Conditional Probability
4. The formula for conditional probability is
P(A | B)
=
P(A and B)
=
P(A B)
P(B) P(B)
7
Conditional Probability Using Two
Way Table
Draw 1 Card. Note Kind & Color . What is the
probability of getting Ace given that the card is Black?
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace
24
24 48
Total 26 26 52
8
Conditional Probability Using Two
Way Table
Answer:
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace
24
24 48
Total 26 26 52
P(Ace Black) 2/ 52 2
P(Ace | Black) =
P(Black) 26/ 52 26

= =
9
1. Event occurrence does not
affect probability of another
event
Toss 1 coin twice
3. Tests for independence
P(A | B) = P(A)
P(A B) = P(A)*P(B)
Statistical Independence
10
Using the table then the formula, whats the probability?

Thinking Challenge
1. P(A|D) =
2. P(C|B) =
3. Are C & B
Independent?
Event
Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
11
Solution*
Using the formula, the probabilities Are:
Dependent
P(A | D) =
P(A D)
P(D)

= =
2 10
5 10
2
5
/
/
P(C | B) =
P(C B)
P(B)
P(C) =

5
10

= =

1 10
4 10
1
4
1
4
/
/
= P(C | B)
12
13
CHAPTER 3
Question:
A petrol station manager did a survey on his customers and found
the following information.








Payment
Customer Credit Card Cash
Regular 40 70
Non-Regular 25 45
14
CHAPTER 3
Question:

(v) Assume we know that the customer is regular. What is the
probability that he will pay in credit?

(ii) Assume customer has paid in cash. Whats the probability
that he is a regular customer?

(iii) Are the two events, being a regular customer and paying
in cash, statistically independent? Explain.










Multiplicative Rule
15
Multiplicative Rule
1. Used to get compound probabilities for
intersection of events
Called joint events
2. For Dependent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A B)
= P(A)*P(B|A)
= P(B)*P(A|B)
3. For Independent Events:
P(A and B) = P(A B) = P(A)*P(B)
16
Multiplicative Rule Example
Experiment: Draw 1 Card. Note Kind, Color & Suit.
Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
4 2 2
52 4 52
| || |
= =
| |
\ .\ .
P(Ace Black) = P(Ace)P(Black | Ace)
17
Thinking Challenge
1. P(C B) =
2. P(B D) =
3. P(A B) =
Event
Event C D Total
A 4 2 6
B 1 3 4
Total 5 5 10
Using the multiplicative rule, whats the probability?
18
Solution*
Using the multiplicative rule, the probabilities
are:
P(C B) = P(C) P(B| C) = 5/10 * 1/5 = 1/10

P(B D) = P(B) P(D| B) = 4/10 * 3/4 = 3/10

P(A B) = P(A) P(B| A) 0

=
19
Exercise 1
Events A and B in a sample S have the following
probabilities:

P(A) = 0.4 , P(B) = 0.3 , P(A B) = 0.2

Find
(i) P(A B).
(ii) P(A|B).
(iii) Are A and B statistically independent events?


20
Exercise 2
Two thousand randomly selected adults were asked if
they are in favor of or against cloning. The following
responses were given.
Opinion
Gender
In Favor Against
Total
Male
500 700
Female
300
500
Total
21
Exercise 2
If an adult is selected at random from this group, find the
probability that this adult is:

(i) in favor of cloning.

(ii) against cloning.

(iii) in favor of cloning given the person is female.

(iv) a male given that the person is against cloning.


22