QTT201: QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES

Lecture-I

Mr. Abhishek Kumar Jha

Assistant Professor,

Room No.-309, Block-14, Lovely School of Business

Email-id:abhishek.17814@lpu.co.in

Some Facts
According to a Global Web Index study it is: Mobile number of people accessing the internet via a mobile phone increasing by 60.3% to 818.4 million in the last 2 years. Older users adoption On Twitter the 55-64 year age bracket is the fastest growing demographic at 79% since 2012. The fastest growing demographic on Facebooks and Google+s networks are the 45 to 54 year age bracket at 46% and 56% respectively. 751 million mobile users access Facebook every month Twitters fastest growing age demographic is 55 to 64 year olds, registering an increase in active users of 79% YouTube: 1 billion unique monthly visitors, 6 billion hours of videos are watched every month

Is these statistics surprised You? Have you ever given a thought while watching a YouTube video or using social site on mobile?

Course Content
Unit I: Introduction to Statistics: Introduction, Function of Statistics, Application of Statistics, Limitation of Statistics, Usefulness in Survey analysis Unit II: Diagrammatic and Graphic Presentation: Bar Diagrams, Pie Diagrams, Histogram, Frequency Polygon, Cumulative Frequency curve Data Collection : Classification of Data, Method of Collecting Data, Primary and Secondary Data, Sources of Secondary Data, Qualitative and Quantitative Classification, Tabulation- Tabulation of Data, Types of Tables, Formation of Discrete and Continuous Frequency Distribution Unit III: Measures of Central Tendency: Arithmetic Mean, Average and its importance, Characteristics of an ideal average, Measures of Concept of Central Tendency, Decile, Geometric Mean, Harmonic Mean, Median, Mode, Percentile Methods, Quartile Measures of Dispersion : Range, Mean deviation, Standard deviation, Variance, Skewness, Karl Pearson co-efficient of Skewness, Coefficient of Variation

Unit IV: Correlation Analysis and Regression Analysis: Scatter Diagram,, Karl Pearson's and Rank Method, Regression- Lines of Regression, Coefficient of Regression, Deviation taken from Arithmetic Mean Analysis of Time Series : Concept of Time Series and Its Components, Method of Semi-Average, Method of Moving Average,, Method of Simple Average, Method of Ratio-to-Trend, Method of Ratio-to-Moving Average, Method of Link Relative

Course Content Contd..

Unit V: Index Number: Methods of Constructing Index Number- Laspeyres Method,
Methods of Constructing Index Number- Paasche Methods, Methods of Constructing Index Number-Bowley's Method, Methods of Constructing Index Number-Fisher Method, Methods of Constructing Index Number- Marshall- Edgeworth Method, Chain base Index, Consumer-Price Index

Unit VI: Probability: Definition and its concept, Addition Theorem, Multiplicative Theorem
Probability Distribution : Concept of probability distribution, Binomial Distribution, Poison Distribution, Normal Distribution

Learning Objectives
To learn the basic concepts of statistics and quantitative techniques. To understand various quantitative approaches towards problem solving and decision making. To make them understand and apply the practical

aspects of various tools and techniques of statistics.

Evaluation:
Component Class Assessment (CA) Mid Tem Exam(MTE) End Term Exam(ETE)

Attendance

Academic Tasks (Case Presentation, Quiz, Test) 20 (Best two out of three) 25 50

Marks

Text Book:
1. Statistics for Management, 7/e by Richard I. Levin, David S. Rubin, Sanjay Rastogi, Masood Husain Siddiqui, Pearson Education, 7th Edition, (2012)

Reference Books:
1. Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making by Ken Black, Wiley India Pvt . Ltd, 4th Edition, (2012) 2. Business Statistics by Naval Bajpai, Pearson India Pvt. Ltd.

Statistics

Statistics is a science dealing with the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of numerical data.

Variables
A variable is any characteristics, number, or quantity that can be measured or counted. A variable may also be called a data item. Age, gender, business income and expenses, no. of births in country, capital expenditure, class grades, eye color and vehicle type are examples of variables. It is called a variable because the value may vary between data units in a population, and may change in value over time.
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Some Important Definitions

A population (universe) is the whole collection of things under consideration A sample is a portion of the population selected for analysis A parameter is a summary measure computed to describe a characteristic of the population A statistic is a summary measure computed to describe a characteristic of the sample

Population and Sample

Population

Sample Use statistics to summarize features

Use parameters to summarize features

Inference on the population from the sample

Statistical Methods
Descriptive Statistics
Collecting and describing data about that same group only

Inferential Statistics
Drawing Conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based only on sample data

Descriptive Statistics
Collect Data
e.g. Survey

Present Data
e.g. Tables and graphs

Characterize Data
e.g. Sample Mean =

X
n

Inferential Statistics
Estimation
e.g. Estimate the population mean weight using the sample mean weight

Hypothesis Testing
e.g. Test the claim that the population mean weight is Drawing 120 pounds conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a population based on sample results.

Functions
1. Presents facts in. simple form: condenses the whole mass of figures

into a single figure and makes the problem intelligible.

2. Reduces the Complexity of data: simplifies complexity of data and make it simple and intelligible by using different statistical measures like graphs, averages, dispersions, skewness, kurtosis, correlation and regression etc. 3. Derives valid inferences: Statistical methods mainly aim at deriving inferences from an enquiry, used to draw inferences regarding population parameters on the basis of sample information.

4. Facilitates comparison: Compares different sets of observation to reach on

conclusion. 5. Testing hypothesis: Formulating and testing of hypothesis and thus helps in

developing new theories. So statistics examines the truth and helps in innovating
new ideas. 6. Formulation of Policies: Helps in formulating plans and policies, used by

planners, economists, scientists and administrators to prepare different plans and

programmes. 7. Forecasting: forecast the trend and tendencies. For example a producer forecasts

his future production on the basis of the present demand conditions and his past
experiences. Similarly, the planners can forecast the future population etc. considering the present population trends.

Applications
Accounting auditing and cost estimation Economics regional, national, and international economic performance Finance investments and portfolio management Management human resources, compensation, and quality management Management Information Systems performance of systems which gather, summarize, and disseminate information to various managerial levels Marketing market analysis and consumer research International Business market and demographic analysis Business analytics to develop new insights and understanding of business performance & opportunities

Why A Manager Needs to Know About Statistics?

To know how to properly present information To know how to draw conclusions about populations based on sample information To know how to improve processes

To know how to obtain reliable forecasts

Limitation of Statistics
Statistics can analyze only aggregated observation or data: statistics analyses a collection of data, individual observation does not belong to statistics Statistics describes only numeral information: does not analyze quality aspect of a variable or the subjective phenomenon like honest, poor, rich etc.

Statistical laws are not exact: statistical laws are true only on average i.e. hold good only under certain conditions. They cannot be universally applied and has less practical utility.

 Incapable in decision making: It is not always possible for statistics to take proper decision, as it always depends on proper data. But the data is statistics are often collected by unskilled persons.
Use inappropriate information: Unskilled, idle and inexperienced person often collect data. As a result, erroneous, puzzling and partial information is collected. As a result, very often improper decision is taken.

Usefulness in Survey Analysis

Presents the data collected through survey in the meaningful form. Simplifies the raw data collected through survey. Helps in formulating and testing of hypothesis. Reaching on valid inferences and enhance decision making.