Determining Exchange Rate

3
Topic
C4 - 2
Discussion Objectives
To explain how exchange rate movements are measured;
To explain how the equilibrium exchange rate is determined;
To examine the factors - basically economic conditions&
market fundamentals - that affect the equilibrium exchange
rate; and
To assess how exchange rates affect (unhedged cashflows)
an MNC value /
Managing for Value : Impact of Exchange Rate Determinants
on Coca Colas ash Flows.
Discussion notes:
A. USD-INR Exchange Rate Is Rupee Headed for Depreciation?
B. Market Realities: RBI to add Yuan to rupee index
Blades Inc. Case: Assessing the future exchange rate
movements
Small Business Dilemma: Assessing the sports exports co., of
factors that affect the British sterlings value
C4 - 3
Measuring
Exchange Rate Movements
An exchange rate measures the value of
one currency in units of another currency.
When a currency declines in value, it is
said to depreciate. When it increases in
value, it is said to appreciate.
On the days when some currencies
appreciate while others depreciate against
the dollar, the dollar is said to be mixed
in trading.
C4 - 4
Measuring
Exchange Rate Movements
The percentage change (% A) in the value
of a foreign currency is computed as
S
t
S
t-1

S
t-1

where S
t
denotes the spot rate at time t.
A positive % A represents appreciation of
the foreign currency, while a negative % A
represents depreciation.
C4 - 5
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1992 1996 2000
Approximate
Spot Rate of
$
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
1992 1996 2000
Approximate
that could be
Purchased with
$10,000

-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1992 1996 2000
Approximate
Annual % A
%
Fluctuation of the British Pound
Over Time
C4 - 6
Factors that Influence Exchange Rates
The following equation summarizes the
factors that can influence a currencys spot
rate:
C4 - 7
Value of
Quantity of
D: Demand for
$1.55
$1.50
$1.60
S: Supply of
equilibrium
exchange rate
Exchange Rate Equilibrium
An exchange rate represents the price of a
currency, which is determined by the
demand for that currency relative to the
supply for that currency, domestic or
foreign.
C4 - 8
Exchange Rate Equilibrium
Foreign Exchange Demand and Supply
Conditions:
effect of price being below equilibrium
effect of price being above equilibrium OR
competitive price. What are the
possible FX market conditions?
Quick Quiz: managers elaborate?
C4 - 9
$/
Quantity of
S
0

D
0

r
0

Case of U.S. inflation |
| U.S. demand for
British goods, and
hence .
D
1
r
1
S
1
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
1. Relative Inflation Rates
+ British desire for U.S.
goods, and hence the
supply of .
This relation sometimes
called PPP or REER.
C4 - 10
$/
Quantity of
r
0
S
0
D
0
S
1

D
1

r
1

Case of U.S. interest rates |
+ U.S. demand for British
bank deposits, and hence
.
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
2. Relative Interest Rates
| British desire for U.S.
bank deposits, and
hence the supply of .
What IRP says?
C4 - 11
Relative Interest Rates
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
It is thus useful to consider real interest
rates, which adjust the nominal interest
rates for inflation.
A relatively high interest rate may actually
reflect expectations of relatively high
inflation, which discourages foreign
investment.
C4 - 12
Relative Interest Rates
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
This relationship is sometimes called the
Fisher effect.
Real interest rates in U.S; Japan and Euro-
zone.
real nominal
interest ~ interest exp. inflation rate
rate rate
C4 - 13
$/
Quantity of
S
0

D
0

r
0

Case of U.S. income level |
| U.S. demand for British
goods, and hence .
D
1
r
1
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
4. Relative Income Levels
No expected change
for the supply of !.
,S
1
C4 - 14
5. Government Controls
Governments may influence the
equilibrium exchange rate by:
imposing foreign exchange barriers,
imposing foreign trade barriers,
intervening in the foreign exchange market,
and
affecting macro variables such as inflation,
interest rates, and income levels.
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
C4 - 15
6. Expectations - of ?
Foreign exchange markets react to any
news that may have a future effect.
Institutional investors (FIIs) often take
currency positions based on anticipated
interest rate movements in various
countries - ex: Asian currency melt-down
& the market perceptions.
Because of speculative transactions,
foreign exchange rates can be very
volatile.
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
C4 - 16
Expectations
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
Fed chairman suggests Fed is Strengthened
unlikely to cut U.S. interest rates
A possible decline in German Strengthened
interest rates
Central banks expected to Weakened
intervene to boost the euro

Signal Impact on $
Poor U.S. economic indicators Weakened
C4 - 17
7. Interaction of Factors
Trade-related / real factors and financial
factors sometimes interact. Exchange rate
movements may be simultaneously
affected by these factors.
For example, an increase in the level of
income sometimes causes expectations of
higher interest rates and its effect on trade
& financial flows.
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
C4 - 18
Interaction of Factors
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
The sensitivity of the exchange rate to
these factors is dependent on the volume
of international transactions between the
two countries.
Over a particular period, different factors
may place opposing pressures on the
value of a foreign currency.
For example, an increase in the trade
deficit and strong economy fundamentals,
may sometimes out-weigh each other,
leaving exchange rates unchanged.
C4 - 19
Trade-Related
Factors
1. Inflation
Differential
2. Income
Differential
3. Govt Trade
Restrictions
Financial
Factors
1. Interest Rate
Differential
2. Capital Flow
Restrictions
How Factors Can Affect Exchange Rates
U.S. demand for foreign
goods, i.e. demand for
foreign currency

Foreign demand for U.S.
goods, i.e. supply of
foreign currency
U.S. demand for foreign
securities, i.e. demand
for foreign currency

Foreign demand for U.S.
securities, i.e. supply of
foreign currency
Exchange
rate
between
foreign
currency
and the
dollar / Rs.
C4 - 20
How Factors Have Influenced Exchange Rates
Because the dollars value changes by
different magnitudes relative to each
foreign currency, analysts often measure
the dollars strength with an index.
The weight assigned to each currency is
determined by its relative importance in
international trade and/or finance.
Factors that Influence
Exchange Rates
C4 - 21
With Respect to the Dollar
Value of Foreign Currency Index Over Time
0
50
100
150
200
250
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

s
t
r
e
n
g
t
h
e
n
s

$

w
e
a
k
e
n
s

Note: The index reflects weights of , , French franc, Euro, and Swiss franc.
$+ due to
relatively high
U.S. inflation
& growth
high U.S.
interest rates, a
somewhat depressed
U.S. economy, & low
inflation
large
balance
of trade
deficit
relatively high U.S.
interest rates, &
lower balance of
trade deficit
Persian
Gulf War
U.S. interest rates +
Higher
U.S.
interest
rates
C4 - 22
Exchange at
$0.52/NZ$
4. Holds
$20,912,320
2. Holds
NZ$40 million
Exchange at
$0.50/NZ$
Speculating on Anticipated Exchange Rates
Chicago Bank expects the exchange rate of the New Zealand dollar to
appreciate from its present level of $0.50 to $0.52 in 30 days. Present
short-term annualised rates are: US$ 6.72%-7.20%;NZ$ 6.48%-6.96%
1. Borrows
$20 million
Borrows at 7.20%
for 30 days
Lends at 6.48%
for 30 days
3. Receives
NZ$40,216,000
Returns $20,120,000
Profit of $792,320
C4 - 23
Speculating on Anticipated Exchange Rates
Chicago Bank expects the exchange rate of the New
Zealand dollar to depreciate from its present level of
$0.50 to $0.48 in 30 days.
Exchange at
$0.48/NZ$
4. Holds
NZ$41,900,000
2. Holds
$20 million
Exchange at
$0.50/NZ$
1. Borrows
NZ$40 million
Borrows at 6.96%
for 30 days
Lends at 6.72%
for 30 days
3. Receives
$20,112,000
Returns NZ$40,232,000
Profit of NZ$1,668,000
or $800,640
C4 - 24
Impact of Exchange Rates on an MNCs Value
( ) ( ) | |
( )

=
n
t
t
m
j
t j t j
k
1 =
1
, ,
1
ER E CF E
= Value
E (CF
j,t
) = expected cash flows in currency j to be received
by the U.S. parent at the end of period t
E (ER
j,t
) = expected exchange rate at which currency j can
be converted to dollars at the end of period t
k = weighted average cost of capital of the parent
Inflation Rates, Interest Rates,
Income Levels, Government Controls,
Expectations