Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Background
Stockholders own the corporation, but in
many instances the corporation is widely held
• Stock ownership is spread among a large number
of people
Because of this, most stockholders are only
interested in how much money they will
receive as a stockholder
• Most equity investors aren’t interested in a role as
owners
2
The Return on an Investment in
Common Stock
The future cash flows associated with stock ownership consists of
Dividends
The eventual selling price of the shares
If you buy a share of stock for price P0, hold it for one year during
which time you receive a dividend of D1, then sell it for a price P1,
you return, k, would be:
D1+ P1 -P0
k=
P0 A capital gain (loss) occurs
or if you sell the stock for a
price greater (lower) than
D1 P1-P0
k= + you paid for it.
P P
{0 14 2043
dividend yield capital gains yield
3
The Return on an Investment in
Common Stock
We can solve the previous equation for P0, the stock’s
price today:
kP0 D1 P1 P0
P0 kP0 D1 P1
1 k P0 D1 P1
D1 P1
P0
1 k
The return on our stock investment is the interest rate
that equates the present value of the investment’s
expected future cash flows to the amount invested
today, the price, P0
4
The Nature of Cash Flows from
Stock Ownership
Comparison of Cash Flows from Stocks
and Bonds
The expected receipt of dividends and the
future selling price of stock is similar to
what a bondholder expects in terms of
interest and principal repayment
• However, with bondholders:
• A guarantee is associated with their interest payments
• Interest payments are constant
• The maturity value of a bond is fixed
• When the bond matures, the investor receives contracted
par or face value from the issuing company
• When stock is sold, the investor receives money from another
investor
5
The Basis of Value
The basis for stock value is the present value of
expected cash inflows even though dividends
and stock prices are difficult to forecast
Must make assumptions about what the future
dividends and selling price will be
• Discount these assumptions at an appropriate interest rate
P0 = D1 PVFk,1 D2 PVFk,2 K Dn PVFk,n Pn PVFk,n
6
The Basis of Value—Example
Q: Joe Simmons is interested in the stock of Teltex Corp. He feels it is
going to have two very good years because of a government contract,
but may not do well after that. Joe thinks the stock will pay a dividend
of $2 next year and $3.50 the year after. By then he believes it will be
selling for $75 a share, at which price he'll sell anything he buys now.
People who have invested in stocks like Teltex are currently earning
returns of 12%. What is the most Joe should be willing to pay for a
Example
share of Teltex?
A: Joe shouldn’t pay more than the present value of the cash flows he
expects: $2 at the end of one year and $3.50 plus $75 at the end of
two years.
7
The Intrinsic (Calculated) Value
and Market Price
A stock’s intrinsic value is based on
assumptions made by a potential investor
Must estimate future expected cash flows
• Need to perform a fundamental analysis of the
firm and the industry
Different investors with different cash flow
estimates will have different intrinsic
values
8
Growth Models of Common
Stock Valuation
Realistically most people tend to forecast
growth rates rather than cash flows
Because forecasting exact future prices and
dividends is very difficult
9
Developing Growth-Based
Models
A stock’s value today is the sum of the present values of
the dividends received while the investor holds it and the
price for which it is eventually sold
D1 D2 Dn Pn
P0 = K
1 k 1 k 2 1 k
n
1 k
n
10
Developing Growth-Based
Models
A person who buys stock at time n will hold it
until period m and then sell it
Their valuation will look like this:
Dn + 1 Dm Pm
Pn = +…+ +
1 + k 1 + k
m-n
1 + k
m-n
12
The Constant Growth Model
If dividends are assumed to be growing at a constant rate forever
and we know the last dividend paid, D0, then the model simplifies to:
D0 1 i
1
P0
1 + k
i
i=1
D0 1 g D0 1 g D0 1 g
2 3
P0 = K
1 k 1 k
2
1 k
3
13
Constant Normal Growth—The
Gordon Model
Constant growth model can be simplified
to
K must be
D1 greater
P0 than g.
k g
A: D1
Example
P0
k-g
$2.25 (1.06)
.11 - .06
$47.70
15
The Zero Growth Rate Case—
A Constant Dividend
If a stock is expected to pay a constant,
non-growing dividend, each dollar
dividend is the same
Gordon model simplifies to:
D
P0
k
A zero growth stock is a perpetuity to the
investor
16
The Expected Return
Can recast Gordon model to focus on the return
(k) implied by the constant growth assumption
D1
k g
P0
The expected return reflects investors’
knowledge of a company
If we know D0 (most recent dividend paid) and P0
(current actual stock price), investors’ expectations
are input via the growth rate assumption
17
Two Stage Growth
At times a firm’s future growth may not be
expected to be constant
For example, a new product may lead to temporary
high growth
The two-stage growth model allows us to value
a stock that is expected to grow at an unusual
rate for a limited time
Use the Gordon model to value the constant portion
Find the present value of the non-constant growth
periods
18
Two Stage Growth—Example
19
Two Stage Growth—Example
3 $3.05 6%
Next, we’ll use the Gordon model at the point in time where the
growth rate changes and constant growth begins. That’s year 2,
so:
D3 $3.05
P2 $76.25
k - g2 .10 - .06
20
Two Stage Growth—Example
$67.57
21
Practical Limitations of Pricing
Models
Stock valuation models give approximate results
because the inputs are approximations of reality
Bond valuation is precise because inputs are exact
• With bonds future cash flows are contractually guaranteed in
amount and time
Actual growth rate can be VERY different from predicted
growth rates
Even if growth rates differ only slightly, it can make a big
difference in our decision
So, it’s best to allow a margin for error in your
estimations
22
Practical Limitations of Pricing
Models
Stocks That Don’t Pay Dividends
Some firms don’t pay dividends even if they are
profitable
Many companies claim they never intend to pay
dividends
• These firms can still have a substantial stock price
Firms of this type typically are growing and are using
their profits to finance their growth
• However rapid growth won’t last forever
• When growth slows, the firm will begin paying dividends
• It’s these distant dividends that impart value
23
Some Institutional Characteristics
of Common Stock
Corporate Organization and Control
Controlled by Board of Directors (elected by stockholders)
Board appoints top management who then appoint middle/lower
management
Board consists of: top management and outside members
(major stockholders, top executives at other firms, former
presidents, etc.)
In widely held corporations, top management is effectively in
control of the firm because no stockholder group has enough
power to remove them
Preemptive Rights
If firm issues new shares, existing shareholders have right to
purchase pro rata share of new issue
Common, but not required by law
24
Voting Rights and Issues
25
Majority and Cumulative Voting
Majority voting gives the larger group control of
the company
Cumulative voting gives minority interest a
chance at some representation on the board
Shares With Different Voting Rights
Different classes of stock can be issued with different
rights
• Some stock may be issued with limited or no voting rights
26
Stockholders’ Claim on Income
And Assets
Stockholders have claim on the firm’s net
income
What is not paid out as dividends is retained
(Retained Earnings) for investment in new
projects
Leads to future growth
Common stockholders are last in line to receive
income or assets, and bear more risk than other
investors
However, residual interest is large when firm does
well
27
Preferred Stock
28
Valuation of Preferred Stock
29
Preferred Stock—Example
A: Just substitute the new market interest rate into the preferred
stock valuation model to determine today’s price:
$6
P0 $66.67
.09
30
Characteristics of
Preferred Stock
Cumulative Feature
Common dividends can’t be paid unless the dividends on cumulative
preferred are current
Preferred stock never returns principal (like a bond does upon
maturity)
Preferred stockholders cannot force a firm into bankruptcy (like
bondholders)
Preferred stockholders received preferential treatment over
common stockholders in the event of bankruptcy, but have a lower
priority than bondholders
Preferred stockholders do not have voting rights (like common
stockholders do)
Dividend payments to preferred stockholders are not tax deductible
to the firm
31
Securities Analysis
Securities analysis is the art and science of
selecting investments
Fundamental analysis looks at a company and
its business to forecast value
Technical analysis bases value on the pattern of
past prices and volumes
The Efficient Market Hypothesis says
information moves so rapidly in financial
markets that price changes occur immediately,
so it is impossible to consistently beat the
market to bargains
32
Options and Warrants
Option gives the option holder the temporary right to buy
(or sell) an asset from another party at a fixed price
For instance, a company may be interested in building a
new factory on a tract of land, but it is still unsure if it
wants to build the factory
However, it plans to make a final decision in six months
The company could buy an option contract giving it the right to
buy the land at a fixed price by the end of the six months
• If the company pursues the factory project, it would exercise the
option
• If the company decided not to go ahead with the factory project it
would not have to exercise the option
• But what if the value of the land had risen substantially above the price
fixed by the option—it could exercise the option and sell the land for a
profit thus benefiting even though it didn’t own the land during the
period of the option
33
Stock Options
34
Call Option
35
Figure 7-3: Basic Call Option
Concepts
36
Call Options
37
The Call Option Writer
40
Options and Leverage
Financial leverage
Technique that amplifies return on investment
• Improves positive returns and worsens negative
returns
Options offer leveraging potential due to
the lower price at which you can buy an
option compared to the price of the
underlying stock
The higher the price of the option the less the
leverage potential
41
Options that Expire
43
Writing Options
People write options for the premium income,
hoping that the option will never be exercised
Option writers lose whatever option buyers win
Take the opposite side of a bet
Covered option—the writer owns the underlying
stock
Naked option—the writer does not own the
underlying stock and must purchase it at the
current price should the option be exercised
44
Option Example
The following information refers to a three-month call option on
the stock of Oxbow, Inc.
Price of the underlying stock: $30
Strike price of the three-month call: $25
Market price of the option: $8
Q: What is the intrinsic value of the option?
Example
45
Option Example
Q: If an investor writes and sells a covered call option, acquiring
the covering stock now, how much has he invested?
A: The premium ($8) that the writer receives for the option will
offset some of the purchase price of the stock ($30), therefore
the investor has invested $30 - $8 = $22.
Q: What is the most the buyer of the call can lose?
Example
46
Option Example
Just before the option’s expiration Oxbow is selling for $32.
Q: What is the profit or loss from buying the call?
A: The buyer would exercise the option paying $25 for the stock and
simultaneously selling the stock for $32, resulting in a gain of $7.
However, this gain would be offset by the $8 premium paid for the
option, resulting in an overall loss of $1.
Example
47
Put Options
48
Figure 7.5: Basic Put Option
Concepts
49
Figure 7.6: The Value of a Put
Option
50
Option Pricing Models
Option pricing model is more difficult than
pricing models for stocks and bonds
Fischer Black and Myron Scholes developed the
Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model
Determines option’s price based on
• Price of underlying stock
• Strike price of option
• Time remaining until expiration of option
• Volatility of underlying stock’s market price
• Risk-free interest rate
51
Warrants
Options trade between investors, not
between the companies that issue the
underlying stocks
Warrants are issued by the underlying
companies
When the warrant is exercised the company
issues new stock and receives the exercise
price
• Thus, warrants are primary market instruments
while options are secondary market instruments
52
Warrants
53
Employee Stock Options
More like warrants than traded options
Don’t expire for several years
Strike prices are set far out of the money
Employees who receive options generally receive a
lower salary than they would otherwise
If a company is expected to have a good future
employees may want to receive options
Companies like paying with options because
they can pay the employees a lower salary
Argue that options allow up-and-coming companies
to attract talented employees that they couldn’t
otherwise afford
54
The Executive Stock Option
Problem
Senior executives are usually the people
who receive the most stock options
Tactic has been criticized recently
May cause executive to try to increase stock
price in unethical ways
• Manipulating financial results driving the stock
price higher
• Market should eventually realize the problem and drive
the stock down but executives have already exercised
their stock options and sold the stock at the inflated price
55
The Executive Stock Option
Problem
This can negatively impact a firm’s pension plan if it is
heavily invested in its firm’s own stock
In the early 2000s investors realized that auditors
couldn’t (or wouldn’t) always report financial
manipulations
Enron, WorldCom, Tyco
Resulted in a loss of investor confidence in corporate
management
One result of the overhaul of financial reporting is the
requirement that companies recognize employee stock
options as expenses at the time they are issued
Problem is that no one knows how high the stock will rise in
value at the time the options are issued
56