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Chapter 2

The Basics of
Supply and
Demand
Topics to Be Discussed
• Supply and Demand
• The Market Mechanism
• Changes in Market Equilibrium
• Elasticities of Supply and Demand
• Short-Run Versus Long-Run
Elasticities
Chapter 1 2
Topics to Be Discussed
• Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market
Conditions

• Effects of Government Intervention--


Price Controls

Chapter 1 3
Introduction
• Applications of Supply and Demand
Analysis
– Understanding and predicting how world
economic conditions affect market price
and production
– Analyzing the impact of government
price controls, minimum wages, price
supports, and production incentives

Chapter 1 4
Introduction
• Applications of Supply and Demand
Analysis
– Analyzing how taxes, subsidies, and
import restrictions affect consumers and
producers

Chapter 1 5
Supply and Demand
• The Supply Curve
– The supply curve shows how much of a
good producers are willing to sell at a
given price, holding constant other
factors that might affect quantity
supplied

Chapter 1 6
Supply and Demand
• The Supply Curve
– This price-quantity relationship can be
shown by the equation:

Qs = QS (P)

Chapter 1 7
Supply and Demand
The Supply
Price
Curve Graphically
($ per unit)

Vertical axis measures


price (P) received
per unit in dollars

Horizontal axis measures


quantity (Q) supplied in
number of units per
time period

Quantity

Chapter 1 8
Supply and Demand The Supply
Price
Curve Graphically
($ per unit) S

P2
The supply curve slopes
P1 upward demonstrating that
at higher prices firms
will increase output

Q1 Q2 Quantity

Chapter 1 9
Supply and Demand
• Non-price Determining Variables of
Supply
– Costs of Production
• Labor
• Capital
• Raw Materials

Chapter 1 10
Supply and Demand
Change in Supply

• The cost of raw P


S S’
materials falls
– At P1, produce Q2

– At P2, produce Q1 P1
– Supply curve shifts
right to S’ P2

– More produced at any


price on S’ than on S

Q0 Q1 Q2 Q
Chapter 1 11
Supply and Demand
• Supply - A Review
– Supply is determined by non-price
supply-determining variables as such as
the cost of labor, capital, and raw
materials.
– Changes in supply are shown by shifting
the entire supply curve.

Chapter 1 12
Supply and Demand
• Supply - A Review
– Changes in quantity supplied are shown
by movements along the supply curve
and are caused by a change in the price
of the product.

Chapter 1 13
Supply and Demand
• The Demand Curve
– The demand curve shows how much of a
good consumers are willing to buy as
the price per unit changes holding non-
price factors constant.
– This price-quantity relationship can be
shown by the equation:

QD = QD(P)
Chapter 1 14
Supply and Demand
Price
($ per unit)

Vertical axis measures


price (P) paid
per unit in dollars

Horizontal axis measures


quantity (Q) demanded in
number of units per
time period

Quantity
Chapter 1 15
Supply and Demand
Price
($ per unit) The demand curve slopes
downward demonstrating
that consumers are willing
to buy more at a lower price
as the product becomes
relatively cheaper and the
consumer’s real income
increases.

Quantity
Chapter 1 16
Supply and Demand
• Non-price Determining Variables of
Demand
– Income
– Consumer Tastes
– Price of Related Goods
• Substitutes
• Complements

Chapter 1 17
Supply and Demand
Change in Demand
P D D’

• Income P2
Increases
– At P1, produce Q2
P1
– At P2, produce Q1

– Demand Curve shifts


right

– More purchased at any


price on D’ than on D
Q0 Q1 Q2 Q
Chapter 1 18
Shifts in Supply and
Demand
• Demand - A Review
– Demand is determined by non-price
demand-determining variables, such as,
income, price of related goods, and
tastes.
– Changes in demand are shown by
shifting the entire demand curve.
– Changes in quantity demanded are
shown by movements along the demand
curve. Chapter 1 19
The Market Mechanism
Price
($ per unit) S

The curves intersect at


equilibrium, or market-
clearing, price. At P0 the
P0 quantity supplied is equal
to the quantity demanded
at Q0 .

Q0 Quantity

Chapter 1 20
The Market Mechanism

• Characteristics of the equilibrium or


market clearing price:
– QD = QS
– No shortage
– No excess supply
– No pressure on the price to change

Chapter 1 21
The Market Mechanism
Price
S
($ per unit)
Surplus
P1
If price is above equilibrium:
1) Price is above the
P0 market clearing price
2) Qs > Qd
3) Price falls to the
market-clearing price

Q0 Quantity
Chapter 1 22
The Market Mechanism
A Surplus

• The market price is above


equilibrium
– There is excess supply
– Producers lower prices
– Quantity demanded increases and
quantity supplied decreases
– The market continues to adjust until the
equilibrium price is reached.
Chapter 1 23
The Market Mechanism
Price
S
($ per unit)
Surplus
P1
Assume the price is P1 , then:
1) Qs : Q1 > Qd : Q2
2) Excess supply is Q1:Q2.
P2 3) Producers lower price.
4) Quantity supplied decreases
and quantity demanded
increases.
5) Equilibrium at P2Q3

Q1 Q3 Q2 Quantity
Chapter 1 24
The Market Mechanism
Surplus - Review:

• The market price is above


equilibrium:
– There is excess supply
– Producers lower prices
– Quantity demanded increases and
quantity supplied decreases
– The market continues to adjust until the
equilibrium price is reached
Chapter 1 25
The Market Mechanism
Price
($ per unit) S

Assume the price is P2 , then:


1) Qd : Q2 > Qs : Q1
2) Shortage is Q1:Q2.
P3 3) Producers raise price.
4) Quantity supplied increases
and quantity demanded
decreases.
P2 5) Equilibrium at P3, Q3
Shortage
D

Q1 Q3 Q2 Quantity
Chapter 1 26
The Market Mechanism
Shortage

• The market price is below


equilibrium:
– There is a shortage
– Producers raise prices
– Quantity demanded decreases and
quantity supplied increases
– The market continues to adjust until the
new equilibrium price is reached.
Chapter 1 27
The Market Mechanism
• Market Mechanism Summary
1) Supply and demand interact to
determine the market-clearing
price.
2) When not in equilibrium, the
market will adjust to alleviate a
shortage or surplus and return the
market to equilibrium.
Chapter 1 28
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Equilibrium prices are determined by


the relative level of supply and
demand.

• Supply and demand are determined


by particular values of supply and
demand determining variables.

• Changes in any one or combination


of these variables can cause a
Chapter 1 29
Changes In Market
Equilibrium
• Raw material P
D S S’
prices fall
– S shifts to S’

– Surplus @ P1 of
P1
Q1, Q2
P3

– Equilibrium @ P3,
Q3

Q1 Q3 Q2 Q
Chapter 1 30
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Income Increases P D D’ S

– Demand shifts to D1

– Shortage @ P1 of Q1, P3

Q2 P1

– Equilibrium @ P3, Q3

Q2 Q1 Q3 Q
Chapter 1 31
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Income Increases & P D D’ S S’


raw material prices
fall
– The increase in D is P2
P1
greater than the
increase in S

– Equilibrium price
and quantity
increase to P2, Q2
Q1 Q2 Q
Chapter 1 32
Shifts in Supply and
Demand
• When supply and demand change
simultaneously, the impact on the
equilibrium price and quantity is
determined by:
1) The relative size and direction of the
change
2) The shape of the supply and demand
models
Chapter 1 33
The Price of Eggs and the Price
of a College Education Revisited

• The real price of eggs fell 59% from


1970 to 1998.
• Supply increased due to the
increased mechanization of poultry
farming and the reduced cost of
production.
• Demand decreased due to the
increasing consumer concern over
the health and cholesterol
Chapter 1 34
Market for Eggs Prices fell until
P S1970 a new equilibrium
(1970 was reached at $0.26
dollars per and a quantity
dozen) of 5,300 million dozen

S1998

$0.61

$0.26

D1970
D1998
5,300 5,500 Q (million dozens)
Chapter 1 35
The Price of a College Education

• The real price of a college education


rose 68 percent from 1970 to 1995.
• Supply decreased due to higher costs
of equipping and maintaining modern
classrooms, laboratories and
libraries, and higher faculty salaries.
• Demand increased due a larger
percentage of a larger number of
high school graduates attending
college. Chapter 1 36
Market
P for a CollegeS Education Prices rose until
1995
(annual cost a new equilibrium
in 1970
was reached at $4,573
dollars)
and a quantity
of 12.3 million students
$4,248
S1970

$2,530

D1995
D1970

8.6 14.9 Q (millions of students enrolled))


Chapter 1 37
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Wage Inequality in the United States


– Real after-tax income from 1977 to
1999:
• Rose 40+% for the top 20% of the income
distribution

• Fell 10+% for the bottom 20%

Chapter 1 38
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Question
– Why did the income distribution become
more unequal for 1977 to 1999?

Chapter 1 39
Consumption & Price of
Copper 1880-
1998

Chapter 1 40
The Long-Run Behavior
of Natural Resource Prices

• Observations
– Consumption of copper has increased
about a hundred fold from 1880 through
1998 indicating a large increase in
demand.
– The real price for copper has remained
relatively constant.

Chapter 1 41
Changes In Market
Equilibrium
Price S1900 S1950
S1998

Long-Run Path of
Price and Consumption

D1900 D1950 D1998


Quantity
Chapter 1 42
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Conclusion
– Decreases in the costs of production
have increased the supply by more than
enough to offset the increase in
demand.

Chapter 1 43
Changes In Market
Equilibrium

• Observation
– To accurately predict the future price of
a product or service, it is necessary to
consider the potential change in supply
and demand.
– 1970 predictions for oil and other
minerals proved incorrect because they
only considered the demand side of the
market.
Chapter 1 44
Elasticities of Supply and Demand

• Generally, elasticity is a measure of


the sensitivity of one variable to
another.

• It tells us the percentage change in


one variable in response to a one
percent change in another variable.

Chapter 1 45
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Price Elasticity of Demand

• Measures the sensitivity of quantity


demanded to price changes.
– It measures the percentage change in
the quantity demanded for a good or
service that results from a one percent
change in the price.

Chapter 1 46
Elasticities of Supply and Demand

• The price elasticity of demand is:

EP = (%∆Q)/(%∆P)

Chapter 1 47
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Price Elasticity of Demand

• The percentage change in a variable


is the absolute change in the variable
divided by the original level of the
variable.

Chapter 1 48
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Price Elasticity of Demand

• So the price elasticity of demand is


also:
∆Q/Q P ∆Q
EP = =
∆P/P Q ∆P

Chapter 1 49
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
• Interpreting Price Elasticity of
Demand Values
1) Because of the inverse relationship
between P and Q; EP is negative.

2) If EP > 1, the percent change in


quantity is greater than the
percent change in price. We say
the demand is price elastic.
Chapter 1 50
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
• Interpreting Price Elasticity of
Demand Values

3) If EP < 1, the percent change in


quantity is less than the percent
change in price. We say the
demand is price inelastic.

Chapter 1 51
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Price Elasticity of Demand

• The primary determinant of price


elasticity of demand is the
availability of substitutes.
– Many substitutes demand is price elastic
– Few substitutes demand is price
inelastic

Chapter 1 52
Price Elasticities of Demand
Price
EP = - ∞ The lower portion of
4 a downward sloping
demand curve is less elastic
Q = 8 - 2P than the upper portion.

Ep = -1
2
Linear Demand Curve
Q = a - bP
Q = 8 - 2P

Ep = 0

4 8 Q
Chapter 1 53
Price Elasticities of Demand
Price
Infinitely Elastic Demand

P* D

EP = - ∞
Quantity
Chapter 1 54
Price Elasticities
CompletelyofInelastic
Demand Demand
Price

EP = 0

Q* Quantity
Chapter 1 55
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Other Demand Elasticities

• Income elasticity of demand


measures the percentage change in
quantity demanded resulting from a
one percent change in income.

Chapter 1 56
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Other Demand Elasticities

• The income elasticity of demand is:

∆Q/Q I ∆Q
EI = =
∆I/I Q ∆I

Chapter 1 57
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
Other Demand Elasticities

• Cross elasticity of demand measures


the percentage change in the
quantity demanded of one good that
results from a one percent change in
the price of another good.

• For example consider the substitute


goods, butter and margarine.
Chapter 1 58
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
• The cross elasticity of demand is:
∆Qb/Qb Pm ∆Qb
EQbPm = =
∆Pm/Pm Qb ∆Pm

• The cross elasticity for substitutes is


positive, while that for complements is
negative.
Chapter 1 59
Elasticities
Elasticities of Supply
of Supply and Demand

• Price elasticity of supply measures the


percentage change in quantity supplied
resulting from a 1 percent change in
price.
• The elasticity is usually positive
because price and quantity supplied are
directly related.

Chapter 1 60
Elasticities
Elasticities of Supply
of Supply and Demand

• We can refer to elasticity of supply with


respect to interest rates, wage rates,
and the cost of raw materials.

Chapter 1 61
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
The Market for Wheat

• 1981 Supply Curve for Wheat


– QS = 1,800 + 240P
• 1981 Demand Curve for Wheat
– QD = 3,550 - 266P

Chapter 1 62
Elasticities of Supply and Demand
The Market for Wheat

• Equilibrium: Q S = Q D
1,800 + 240 P = 3,550 − 266 P
506 P = 1,750

P = 3.46 / bushel
Q = 1,800 + (240)(3.46) = 2,630 million bushels

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 63


Elasticities of Supply and Demand
The Market for Wheat

P ∆QD 3.46
E =
D
P = (−2.66) = −.035 Inelastic
Q ∆P 2,630

P ∆QS 3.46
E = S
P = (2.40) = .032 Inelastic
Q ∆P 2,630

Chapter 2: The Basics of Supply and Demand Slide 64


Elasticities of Supply and Demand
The Market for Wheat

• Assume the price of wheat is


$4.00/bushel
QD = 3,550 − (266)(4.00) − 2,486

4.00
Q =D
P ( −266) = −0.43
2,486

Chapter 1 65
Changes in the Market:
The Market for Wheat 1981-1998
Supply (Qs) Demand (QD) Equilibrium Price (Qs = QD)

1981 1800 + 240P 3550 - 266P 1800+240P = 3550-


266P 506P =
1750 P1981 =
$3.46/bushel

1998 1,944 + 207P 3,244 - 283P


1,944+207P = 3,244-283P
P1998 = $2.65/bushel

Chapter 1 66
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Demand

• Price elasticity of demand varies with


the amount of time consumers have
to respond to a price.

Chapter 1 67
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Demand

• Most goods and services:


– Short-run elasticity is less than long-run
elasticity. (e.g. gasoline, Drs.)

• Other Goods (durables):


– Short-run elasticity is greater than long-
run elasticity (e.g. automobiles)

Chapter 1 68
Gasoline: Short-Run and
Long-Run Demand Curves

Price DSR

People tend to
drive smaller and
more fuel efficient
cars in the long-run

Gasoline DLR

Quantity
Chapter 1 69
Automobiles: Short-Run and
Long-Run Demand Curves

Price DLR
People may put
off immediate
consumption, but
eventually older cars
must be replaced.

Automobiles DSR

Quantity
Chapter 1 70
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Income Elasticities

• Income elasticity also varies with the


amount of time consumers have to
respond to an income change.

Chapter 1 71
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Income Elasticities

• Most goods and services:


– Income elasticity is greater in the long-
run than in the short run.
• Higher incomes may be converted into
bigger cars so the income elasticity of
demand for gasoline increases with time.

Chapter 1 72
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Income Elasticities

• Other Goods (durables):


– Income elasticity is less in the long-run
than in the short-run.
• Originally, consumers will want to hold more
cars.
• Later, purchases will only to be to replace
old cars.

Chapter 1 73
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
The Demand for
Gasoline and Automobiles

• Gasoline and automobiles are


complementary goods.

Chapter 1 74
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
The Demand for
Gasoline and Automobiles

• Gasoline
– The long-run price and income
elasticities are larger than the short-run
elasticities.

• Automobiles
– The long-run price and income
elasticities are smaller than the short-
run elasticities.
Chapter 1 75
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities

The Demand for Gasoline

Years Following Price or Income Change

Elasticity 1 2 3 4 5 6

Price -0.11-0.22 -0.32 -0.49 -0.82 -1.17

Income 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.32 0.54 0.78

Chapter 1 76
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities

The Demand for Automobiles

Years Following Price or Income Change

Elasticity 1 2 3 4 5 6

Price -1.20-0.93 -0.75 -0.55 -0.42 -0.40

Income 3.00 2.33 1.88 1.38 1.02 1.00

Chapter 1 77
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
The Demand for
Gasoline and Automobiles

• Data Explains:
1) Why the price of oil did not
continue to rise above $30/barrel
even though it rose very rapidly in
the early 1970s.
2) Why automobile sales are so
sensitive to the business cycle.
Chapter 1 78
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Supply

• Most goods and services:


– Long-run price elasticity of supply is
greater than short-run price elasticity of
supply.

• Other Goods (durables, recyclables):


– Long-run price elasticity of supply is less
than short-run price elasticity of supply

Chapter 1 79
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Primary Copper: Short-Run and
Long-Run Supply Curves
SSR
Price

SLR

Due to limited
capacity, firms
are limited by
output constraints
in the short-run.
In the long-run, they
can expand.

Quantity
Chapter 1 80
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Secondary Copper: Short-Run and
Long-Run Supply Curves SLR
Price SSR

Price increases
provide an incentive
to convert scrap
copper into new supply.
In the long-run, this
stock of scrap copper
begins to fall.

Quantity
Chapter 1 81
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Supply of Copper

Price Elasticity of: Short-run Long-run

Primary supply 0.20 1.60

Secondary supply 0.43 0.31

Total supply 0.25 1.50

Chapter 1 82
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Weather in Brazil and
the price of Coffee
in New York

• Elasticity explains why coffee prices


are very volatile.
– Due to the differences in supply
elasticity in the long-run and short run.

Chapter 1 83
Price of Brazilian Coffee

Chapter 1 84
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Coffee S’ S
Price A freeze or drought
decreases the supply
P1 of coffee

P0

Short-Run
1) Supply is completely inelastic
2) Demand is relatively inelastic
3) Very large change in price

Q1 Q0 Quantity
Chapter 1 85
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Coffee
Price S’ S

P2

P0
Intermediate-Run
1) Supply and demand are
more elastic
2) Price falls back to P2.
3) Quantity falls to Q2

Q2 Q0 Quantity
Chapter 1 86
Short-Run Versus
Long-Run Elasticities
Coffee
Price
Long-Run
1) Supply is extremely elastic.
2) Price falls back to P0.
3) Quantity increase to Q0.

P0 S

Q0 Quantity
Chapter 1 87
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• First, we must learn how to “fit”


linear demand and supply curves to
market data.

• Then we can determine numerically


how a change in a variable will cause
supply or demand to shift and
thereby affect the market price and
quantity.
Chapter 1 88
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Available Data
– Equilibrium Price, P*
– Equilibrium Quantity, Q*
– Price elasticity of supply, ES, and
demand, ED.

Chapter 1 89
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Price
Supply: Q = c + dP
a/b

ED = -bP*/Q*
P* ES = dP*/Q*

-c/d Demand: Q = a - bP

Q* Quantity
Chapter 1 90
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Let’s begin with the equations for


supply and demand:

Demand: QD = a - bP

Supply: QS = c + dP

• We must choose numbers for a, b, c,


and d.
Chapter 1 91
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Step 1:
Recall:

E = (P/Q)( ∆Q/∆P)

Chapter 1 92
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• For linear demand curves, the


change in quantity divided by the
change in price is constant (equal to
the slope of the curve).

Chapter 1 93
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Substituting the slopes for each into


the formula for elasticity, we get:

ED = - b(P * /Q*)

ES = d(P * /Q*)

Chapter 1 94
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Since we will have values for ED, ES,


P*, and Q*, we can solve for b & d,
and a & c. * *
QD = a − bP
* *
QS = c + dP

Chapter 1 95
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Deriving the long-run supply and


demand for copper:
– The relevant data are:
• Q* = 7.5 mmt/yr.
• P* = 75 cents/pound
• ES = 1.6
• ED = -0.8

Chapter 1 96
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Ed = -b(P*/Q*)
• Es = d(P*/Q*)
• -0.8 = -b(.75/7.5)
• 1.6 = d(75/7.5) = -0.1b
= 0.1d
• b = 0.8/0.1 = 8
• d = 1.6/0.1 = 16

Chapter 1 97
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Supply = QS* = c + • Demand = QD* = a


dP* -bP*
• 7.5 = c + 16(0.75) • 7.5 = a -(8)(.75)
• 7.5 = c + 12 • 7.5 = a - 6
• c = 7.5 - 12 • a = 7.5 + 6
• c = -4.5 • a =13.5
• Q = -4.5 + 16P • Q = 13.5 - 8P

Chapter 1 98
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Setting supply equal to demand gives:


Supply = -4.5 + 16p = 13.5 - 8p =
Demand

16p + 8p = 13.5 + 4.5

p = 18/24 = .75

Chapter 1 99
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

Price
Supply: QS = -4.5 + 16P
a/b

.75

-c/d Demand: QD = 13.5 - 8P

7.5 Mmt/yr
Chapter 1 100
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• We have written supply and demand


so that they only depend upon price.
• Demand could also depend upon
income.
• Demand would then be written as:
Q = a − bP + fI

Chapter 1 101
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• We know the following information


regarding the copper industry:
– I = 1.0
– P* = 0.75
– Q* = 7.5
– b=8
– Income elasticity: E = 1.3

Chapter 1 102
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• f can be found by substituting known


values into the income elasticity
formula:
E = ( I / Q)(∆ Q / ∆ I )
and

f = ∆Q / ∆I
Chapter 1 103
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Solving for f gives:


1.3 = (1.0/7.5)f

f = (1.3)(7.5)/1.0 = 9.75

Chapter 1 104
Understanding and Predicting the
Effects of Changing Market Conditions

• Solving for a gives:


Q = a − bP + fI
* *

7.5 = a - 8(0.75) + 9.75(1.0)

a = 3.75

Chapter 1 105
Declining Demand and the
Behavior of Copper Prices

• The relevant factors leading to a


decrease in the demand for copper
are:

1) A decrease in the growth rate of


power generation

2) The development of substitutes:


fiber optics and aluminum
Chapter 1 106
Real versus Nominal
Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999

Chapter 1 107
Real versus Nominal
Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999
• We will try to estimate the impact of
a 20 percent decrease in the demand
for copper.

• Recall the equation for the demand


curve:

Q = 13.5 - 8P

Chapter 1 108
Real versus Nominal
Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999
• Multiply this equation by 0.80 to get
the new equation. This gives:

Q = (0.80)(13.5 - 8P)

Q = 10.8 - 6.4P

• Recall the equation for supply:


Q = -4.5 + 16P
Chapter 1 109
Real versus Nominal
Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999
• The new equilibrium price is:
-4.5 + 16P = 10.8 - 6.4P

-16P + 6.4P = 10.8 + 4.5

P = 15.3/22.4

P = 68.3 cents/pound

Chapter 1 110
Real versus Nominal
Prices of Copper 1965 - 1999
• The twenty percent decrease in
demand resulted in a reduction in
the equilibrium price to 68.3 cents
from 75 cents, or 10 percent.

Chapter 1 111
Price of Crude Oil

Chapter 1 112
Upheaval in the World Oil Market
• We can predict numerically the
impact of a decrease in the supply of
OPEC oil.

• In 1995:
– P* = $18/barrel
– World demand and total supply = 23
bb/yr.
– OPEC supply = 10 bb/yr.
– Non-OPEC supply = 113 bb/yr
Chapter 113
Price Elasticity Estimates
Short-Run Long-Run

World Demand: -0.05 -0.40

Competitive Supply 0.10 0.40


(non-OPEC)

Chapter 1 114
Upheaval in the World Oil Market
• Short-Run Impact of a stoppage of
Saudi Production equal to 3 bb/yr.
– Short-run Demand
• D = 24.08 - 0.06P
– Short-run Competitive Supply
• SC = 11.74 + 0.07P

Chapter 1 115
Upheaval in the World Oil Market
• Short-Run Impact of a stoppage of
Saudi Production equal to 3 bb/yr.
– Short-run Total Supply--before supply
reduction (includes OPEC, 10bb/yr)
• ST = 21.74 + 0.07P
– Short-run Total Supply--after supply
reduction
• ST = 18.74 + 0.07P

Chapter 1 116
Upheaval in the World Oil Market
• New Price After Reduction
Demand = Supply

24.08 - 0.06P = 18.74 + 0.07P

P = 41.08

Chapter 1 117
Impact of Saudi Production
Cut
SC D S’T ST

Price 45
($ per Short-Run
barrel) 40 Effect
35

30

25

20
18
15

10

5 Quantity
0 5 10 15 20 23 25 30 35 (billions barrels/yr)
Chapter 1 118
Upheaval in the World Oil Market
• Long-Run Impact of a stoppage Saudi
Production equal to 3 bb/yr..
– Long-run Demand
• D = 32.18 - 0.51P
– Long-run Total Supply
• S = 17.78 + 0.29P

Chapter 1 119
Upheaval in the World Oil Market
• New Price is found setting long-run
supply equal to long-run demand:

32.18 - 0.51P = 14.78 + 0.29P

P = 21.75

Chapter 1 120
Impact of Saudi Production
Cut

SC S’T ST Long-run Effect


Price 45
D
($ per
barrel) 40
35 Due to the elasticity
of the long-run
30 supply and demand
curves, the long-run
25 effect of a cut
in production is
20 much less.
18
15

10

5 Quantity
(billions barrels/yr)
0 5 10 15 20 23 25 30 35
Chapter 1 121
Effects of Government Intervention
--Price Controls

• If the government decides that the


equilibrium price is too high, they
may establish a maximum allowable
ceiling price.

Chapter 1 122
Effects
Price
of Price Controls
S

If price is regulated to
be no higher than Pmax,
quantity supplied falls
P0 to Q1 and quantity
demanded increases to
Q2. A shortage results
Pmax

D
Excess demand
Q0 Quantity
Chapter 1 123
Price Controls and
Natural Gas Shortages

• In 1954, the federal government


began regulating the wellhead price
of natural gas.

• In 1962, the ceiling prices that were


imposed became binding and
shortages resulted.

Chapter 1 124
Price Controls and
Natural Gas Shortages

• Price controls created an excess


demand of 7 trillion cubic feet.

• Price regulation was a major


component of U.S. energy policy in
the 1960s and 1970s, and it
continued to influence the natural
gas markets in the 1980s.

Chapter 1 125
Price Controls and
Natural Gas Shortages
The Data: Natural Gas

PES = 0.2
Cross elasticity of supply for oil = 0.1
D
PE = −0.5
Cross elasticity of demand for oil = 1.5
Supply : Q = 14 + 2 PG + .25 PO
Demand : Q = −5 PG + 3.75 PO
Supply = Demand @ $2/TcF
Chapter 1 126
Price Controls and
Natural Gas Shortages
The Data: Natural Gas

1975 regulated price = $1.00

At $1.00/TcF
QS = 18 TcF and Q = 25 TcF
Shortage = 7 TcF/yr

Chapter 1 127
Summary
• Supply-demand analysis is a basic
tool of microeconomics.

• The market mechanism is the


tendency for supply and demand to
equilibrate, so that there is neither
excess demand nor excess supply

Chapter 1 128
Summary
• Elasticities describe the
responsiveness of supply and
demand to changes in price, income,
and other variables.

• Elasticities pertain to a time frame.


• If we can estimate the supply and
demand curves for a particular
market, we can Chapter
calculate
1
the market129
Summary
• Simple numerical analysis can often
be done by fitting linear supply and
demand curves to data on price and
quantity and to estimates of
elasticities.

Chapter 1 130
End of Chapter 2
The Basics of
Supply and
Demand

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