ELEMENTARY

Chapter 4

STATISTICS
Probability Distributions

EIGHTH Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman EDITION

MARIO F. TRIOLA

Chapter 4

Probability Distributions
4-1 Overview

4-2 Random Variables

4-3 Binomial Probability Distributions

4-4 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation for the Binomial Distribution 4-5 The Poisson Distribution
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 2

4-1

Overview
This chapter will deal with the construction of

probability distributions
by combining the methods of Chapter 2 with the those of Chapter 3. Probability Distributions will describe what will probably happen instead of what actually did happen.
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 3

Combining Descriptive Statistics Methods and Probabilities to Form a Theoretical Model of Behavior Figure 4-1

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

4-2

Random Variables

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

Definitions
Random Variable
a variable (typically represented by x) that has a single numerical value, determined by chance, for each outcome of a procedure

Probability Distribution
a graph, table, or formula that gives the probability for each value of the random variable

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

Table 4-1

Probability Distribution Number of Girls Among Fourteen Newborn Babies x

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

P(x)
0.000 0.001 0.006 0.022 0.061 0.122 0.183 0.209 0.183 0.122 0.061 0.022 0.006 0.001 0.000
7

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

Definitions
Discrete random variable has either a finite number of values or countable number of values, where countable refers to the fact that there might be infinitely many values, but they result from a counting process.

Continuous random variable

has infinitely many values, and those values can be associated with measurements on a continuous scale with no gaps or interruptions.
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 8

Probability Histogram

Figure 4-3

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

Requirements for Probability Distribution

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

10

Requirements for Probability Distribution

P(x) = 1
where x assumes all possible values

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

11

Requirements for Probability Distribution

P(x) = 1
where x assumes all possible values

0 P(x) 1
for every value of x
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 12

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

Formula 4-1
= [x P(x)]

Formula 4-2 2 2 = [(x - ) P(x)] Formula 4-3 2 2 2 = [ x P(x)] - (shortcut)

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

13

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

Formula 4-1
= [x P(x)]

Formula 4-2 2 2 = [(x - ) P(x)] Formula 4-3 2 2 2 = [ x P(x)] - (shortcut) Formula 4-4 = [ x 2 P(x)] - 2
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 14

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

Formula 4-1
= [x P(x)]

Formula 4-2 2 2 = [(x - ) P(x)] Formula 4-3 2 2 2 = [ x P(x)] - (shortcut) Formula 4-4 = [ x 2 P(x)] - 2
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 15

Roundoff Rule for , , and

2

Round results by carrying one more decimal place than the number of decimal places used for the random variable x. If the values of x are integers, round , 2, and to one decimal place.

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

16

Definition
Expected Value
The average value of outcomes

E = [x P(x)]
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 17

E = [x P(x)]
Event
Win
Lose

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

18

E = [x P(x)]
Event
Win
Lose

x
$499
- $1

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

19

E = [x P(x)]
Event
Win
Lose

x
$499
- $1

P(x)
0.001
0.999

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

20

E = [x P(x)]
Event
Win
Lose

x
$499
- $1

P(x)
0.001
0.999

x P(x)
0.499
- 0.999

Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman

21

E = [x P(x)]
Event
Win
Lose

x
$499
- $1

P(x)
0.001
0.999

x P(x)
0.499
- 0.999

E = -$.50
Chapter 4. Section 4-1 and 4-2. Triola, Elementary Statistics, Eighth Edition. Copyright 2001. Addison Wesley Longman 22