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Concept of Confidence Interval (CI) and Confidence Level: Learning ObjectivesWhy these are important? How to Calculate CI? Relationship between CI and Confidence Level Effect of Sample Size on Width of CI
Concept of CI
Sample statistic is used to make a best guess about parameter value in the population. Note that this parameter value is just a number in this case. It is also called a point estimate. However, for better information about the parameter value, we are not only interested to know about the point estimate, we are also interested to know about how close is our estimate to true population parameter (which is actually unknown)
Constructing a CI
Sampling distribution of the point estimate is used to construct CI of the parameter. This sampling distribution is normal in most of cases. To construct CI, we add and subtract some multiple (z-score) of standard error of mean of the sampling distribution from the point estimate.
Formula to Calculate CI
CI of the population mean : Point estimate of mean z-score *(standard error of mean) = Y ( z score) * y Y ( z score) * n
In practice we dont know , so we estimate it by sample std. deviation s. s CI uses estimated standard error =
n
Example
Suppose the mean annual family income of a sample of 100 randomly selected households is $30,000 and the standard deviation is $1000. Find the point estimates of population mean and std deviation. Construct and interpret a 95% CI for population mean .
Example
By Central Limit Theorem, for large random samples, the sampling distribution of sample mean income is approximately normal about the population mean income . So, = $30,000 1000 100 Std error of mean = 100 From z-table we know that correspond to area in two tails = 0.05, the z-score is 1.96 95% CI for population mean = 30,000 1.96(100) = (29804, 30196)
Can you construct a 90% CI for Population mean in the above example?
From z-table we see that correspond to area in two tails = 0.1, the z-score is 1.645 90% CI for population mean = 30,000 1.645(100) = (29835.5, 30164.5) Width of 90% CI = (30164.5 - 29835.5) = 329 Width of 95% CI = (30196 - 29804) = 392
Based on the last example what can you conclude about the relationship between Confidence Level and the Width of the Confidence Interval?
Answer
For a 0.9 Confidence level Width of CI is equal to 329. For a 0.95 Confidence level Width of CI is equal to 392. - As the Confidence Level Increases, the Width of CI also Increases.
As n increases,(/Sqrt (n)) decreases. So, the Width of CI decreases. Can you intuitively argue why the width of CI decreases as the sample size increases? Can you tell us what is the relationship between std. deviation of the sample and the width of CI?