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INDONESIA MACROECONOMICS
Indonesias economy in 2012 posted a considerably high growth of 6.2%, yet at a lower rate than the previous years growth of 6.5%.
INFLATION
EXCHANGE RATE
The average realized exchange rate as of 26 August 2013 stood at IDR 9,852 per US dollar and IDR 10,841 on the average spot market.
Outlook
GDP Growth
annual percent change
6.3
5.9
5.9
GDP Growth (%) 2013 per Category: State Budget Draft 2013
Inflation
annual percent change
7.2
8.6
9.2
Exchange Rate
IDR/USD
9,600
9,852
10,200
Outlook
5.0
4.2
5.0
Household Consumption Government Consumption Gross Fixed Capital Formation Export Import
5.0 6.7
5.1 3.4
108
105
105
840
thousand barrels per day
829
834
1,240
1204
1207
The outlook for economic growth in 2013 has been lowered from 6.3 percent in the 2013 State Budget to 5.9 percent. Of the seven macroeconomic assumptions of 2013, only the 3-month state treasury securities rate (SPN) has not been revised.
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Between 2000 and 2009 domestic investors with government of Indonesia support, gained majority ownership of Indonesia largest coal producers. During this same time period the coal industry was subjected to greater regulatory control by provincial and regency governments.
Estimates of Coal Reserves by Province, 2007
Province
Reserve Category (in Million Tonnes) Probable Proven Indicated 3,781 2,605 0 6,386 905 4,557 0 5,462 4,686 7,162 0 11,848
Serious government misstep on regulatory matters, the outlook is for producers to embark upon a substantial expansion program over the next decade such as Bumi, Adaro, and Kideco. They will also be ramping up their production levels to capture the low rank (LR) coal market that will be created by PT Perusahaan Listrik Negaras (PLN) 1st fast track program, which is expected to add 10,000 MW of new coalfired capacity between 2011 and 2015 is real challenges for this sector. Base on mine Indonesia 10th annual review on 2008 (Indonesia coal mining association) trends in mining industry revenue increased by 27% in 2007 over 2006 and net profits increased by a massive 65%. This is even more significant considering that 2006 net profits were already 17% above the prior year. 2008 is a stark contrast, with the results for listed mining companies showing a decrease in revenues from 2007 of 3% and a much greater decrease in profitability of 33%, as costs have fallen at a lower rate than commodity prices. The coal miners however managed to show profit growth in both 2007 and 2008, given their annually negotiated sales prices were agreed in late 2007 and early 2008 in the high price environment. The main listed mining companies continued their strong performance in 2007 and until early July 2008 which was reflected in dramatic increases in market capitalisation. This increase was predominantly due to the runup in commodity prices, but also due to the listing of new comer, with an implied market capitalisation of US$ 1.6 billion
PT Bumi Resources Tbk operates in the exploration and exploitation of coal deposits, including coal mining, and oil exploration activities. The Company offers its services to cement companies and power plants, as well as middle and large scale industrial companies that involve in chemical, mine, and textile businesses. Bumi Resources also has interest in mining gold, silver and copper. The Company went public through an Initial Public Offering in 1990, fully listing its shares on the Jakarta and Surabaya Stock Exchange. In 2008, After intense competitive bidding, BUMI acquired Herald Resources Ltd of Australia for Aus$ 552 million. This zinc, lead and gold operation is located in North Sumatera.
2009, China Investment Corporation (CIC) invested US$ 1,9 billion in BUMI in the form of a debt-like instrument. The US$ 1,9 billion investment consists of US$ 600 million repayable in year four, US$ 600 million in year five, and remaining US$ 700 million in year six. The investment attracts a 12% annual cash coupon with a total IRR of 19%, the balance payable at the time of final maturities. The funds will be used for debt restructuring and capital expenditure. 2010, Additional capital injection through the issuance of Non Pre-Emptive shares approved in EGM on June 24, 2010.
2011, Through resolution of the Annual GMS dated June 27, 2011 the Company distributed dividends to shareholders amounting to Rp 41.78 per share. The Company has made repayment of the Tranche A of US$ 600 million of the China Investment Corporation (CIC) debt, which would have matured on 30 September 2013: paid almost 2 (two) years earlier based upon mutual agreement. 2012, Through the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders on 21 May, it was decided the change in composition of members of Board of Commissioners and Board of Directors of the Company.