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river and flood forecasts and warnings for the protection of lives and property. basic hydrologic forecast information for the nations environmental and economic well being.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INSTRUCTION 10-922 WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS SPECIFICATION
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/010/010.htm
Internet (http://weather.gov/) NOAA Weather Radio Emergency Managers Weather Information Network NOAA Weather Wire Service Family of Services NOAAPORT EAS
Verification
Flash Flood Warning verification statistics are based on product issuance information and confirmation of actual flash floods by the local WFOs.
41 89
Impact of Technology, Training, Expanding Outreach and Dissemination on Flash Flood Services
19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
NEXRAD Implementation
FFMP Implementation
Forecasters integrate observed and forecast information to assess the threat of flash flooding Data sources include radar data and in-situ precipitation gages and FFG (e.g., ASOS and ALERT) Decision assistance tools facilitate analysis of large and diverse data sets to identify conditions conducive to flash flooding
FFMP
The Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) Application is a new NWS radar-based Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) decision assistance application
FFMP
Available Data and Algorithms
Radar data availability is limited especially in the Western United States WFOs served by more than one radar must run an instance of FFMP for each radar Limitations of radar
Uses raw radar data precipitation estimates no bias adjusting Radar bins increase in size and altitude with distance from the radar Brightband contamination Hail contamination Inaccurate Z/R relationships
Limitations of FFG
FFG is developed from hydrologic models calibrated for river forecasting of larger basins. The calibrations are not necessarily scalable for the basins associated with flash floods. Discrepancies across RFC boundaries Not appropriate for regions where the dominant flash flood factors are rainfall intensity and terrain
Improved Multi-sensor Precipitation estimates Improved Short Range QPF FFMP improvements Flash Flood Potential Index Statistical Distributed Modeling Distributed Modeling
Enhanced QPE/QPF Capabilities (NWS Operational Requirements Document - Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction Fall 2003)
If scientific investigation shows that the increased spatial resolution is beneficial to precipitation estimates, then increase the spatial resolution of the multi-sensor precipitation estimates to 0.5 km by 0.5 km. Increase frequency of integration of satellite QPE into multi-sensor precipitation estimates from every 60 minutes to every 15 minutes Generate DHR-based rainfall products with a resolution of 0.5 by 0.25 km (ORDA FY08) Provide capability to display and monitor QPF Enhance the rain gauge network data flow from all sources and deliver to AWIPS for use in multi-sensor precipitation estimates and FFMP at 5 minute resolution.
Other requirements identified in the ORD include GIS improvements, improvements in FFMP Display methods, and improvements in FFG estimates
Currently researching methods to add a soil moisture layer to FFPI to support national implementation.
Will need to integrate gridded 1-hour multisensor precipitation estimates to estimate soil moisture.
10
(2)
1. Using observed data for a region, derive a probability distribution describing the chance of exceeding a flood threshold given a computed flow frequency Regional flood threshold estimate (3) Forecasted peak flow 2. Derive a simulated climatology for each model grid cell 3. Given a forecasted flow, derive the probability of exceeding simulated climatology for each model grid cell
Flow (cms)
1 0.01
Observed Simulated
0.1 Prob of exceeding bankfull 1
(1)
0.82 0.63
Estimation requirements
Initial Proof of Concept with Hourly Stage III products on an HRAP grid. Model framework can be used to test precipitation estimates at higher spatial and temporal resolutions Plan to expand approach to ingest 1-hour forecast precipitation grids.
Arkansas R.
Red R.
Blue R.
0 4/3/99 0:00
4/3/99 12:00
4/4/99 0:00
4/4/99 12:00
4/5/99 0:00
4/5/99 12:00
4/6/99 0:00
Hydrograph at Location A
200 160
Flow (CMS)
120
Distributed Lumped
4/3/99 12:00 4/4/99 0:00 4/4/99 12:00 4/5/99 0:00 4/5/99 12:00 4/6/99 0:00
80
40
B Flow (CMS)
0 4/3/99 0:00
Hydrograph at Location B
200 160
Observed
120
80
40
0 4/3/99 0:00
4/3/99 12:00
4/4/99 0:00
4/4/99 12:00
4/5/99 0:00
4/5/99 12:00
4/6/99 0:00
Estimation requirements
Improved quality of precipitation estimates Accurate highresolution seamless multi-sensor gridded precipitation estimates Timely estimates every five minutes as close to real-time (minimize processing, latency, without degrading quality) Ingest short-term (0-1 hour) high quality seamless QPF Carry forward human quality control knowledge interaction to real-time QPE estimates Improve gauge quality and network Gap filling mechanisms
Satellite estimates