IEE/CEEM Seminar: Dave Auston and The Changing Energy Landscape

The Changing Energy Landscape
David Auston,
Executive Director
The Institute for Energy Efficiency
1
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U.S. Energy Consumption 2011
Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA)

2
China Energy Consumption 2009
Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA)

3
Energy Use Per Capita by Country
4
U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per GDP
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013
5
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel (1015 BTU)
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

6
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel (1012 kWhr/yr)

7
U.S. Projected GHG Emissions

8
Unconventional Oil
Energy Bonanza or
& Gas
Environmental Hazard?
9
10
11
Assessed Shale Oil and Shale Gas Formations (2013)
12
U.S. Domestic Natural Gas Production (1012 cubic feet)

13
U.S. Domestic Crude Oil Production (106 barrels/day)

14
Technically Recoverable Unconventional Oil & Gas
38%
48%
Increase in U.S. natural

gas supply due to
unconventional sources
Increase in non U.S.

natural gas supply due to
35%
10%
Increase in U.S.
petroleum supply due to
Increase in non U.S.

petroleum supply due to
15
Net Oil & Gas Imports in Selected Countries

16
Geopolitical Impact of Unconventional Oil & Gas

Combats the long-term potential monopoly power of a gas OPEC
Reduces U.S. and
Chinese dependence
on Middle East natural
Virtually eliminates U.S. requirements for

imported LNG for at least two decades
Reduces competition for LNG supplies from
the Middle East
gas supplies
Reduces the future
share of world gas
supply from Russia,
Iran, and Venezuela
Reduces the opportunity for Venezuela to

become a major LNG exporter
Reduces Russias market share in non-FSU
Europe from 27% in 2009 to ~13% by 2040
Reduces Irans ability to tap energy diplomacy to
strengthen regional power or buttress nuclear
aspirations
Source: Baker Institute for Public Policy 2010

17
Methane Leakage & Global Warming Potential (GWP)
GWP is a measure
of the total energy a
gas absorbs over a
period of time
compared to CO2.
Source: World Resources Institute 2013

18
Groundwater Contamination
Methane was detected in 82% of

drinking water samples from 141
wells in Appalachia, with average
concentrations six times higher
for homes <1 km from natural
gas wells:
Increased stray gas abundance in a
subset of drinking water wells near
Marcellus shale gas extraction, Robert B.
Jackson, Avner Vengosh, Thomas H.
Darrah, Nathaniel R. Warner, Adrian
Down, Robert J. Poreda, Stephen G.
Osbornd, Kaiguang Zhao, and Jonathan
D. Karr, PNAS July 2013
Growing & Changing Share of World Energy Demand

+35% 2010 to 2035

20
Carbon Intensity --- a Measure of Clean Energy
CHINA
USA
WORLD
EU-27
INDIA
AFRICA
SOURCE: IEA: Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013
21
Reaching the 2 Degree Climate Scenario
Source: IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013

22
Electricity Generation
23
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel
24
Levelized Cost of New Electric Power in U.S. ($/kWh)

Hydro
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind-Offshore
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Advanced Nuclear
Advanced Combustion Turbine
Conventional Combustion Turbine
Advanced CC with CCS
Advanced Combined Cycle
Conventional Combined Cycle
Advanced Coal with CCS
Advanced Coal
Conventional Coal
Note: These are costs

for new generation
that would come
online in ~2018;
exclusive of subsidies
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas Fired
Coal fired
$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30

Source: US Energy Information Agency
Cost / kWh
25
c-Si PV Manufacturing & Cost Trends
Goodrich et al:
Assessing the
drivers of
regional trends
in solar
photovoltaic
manufacturing
26
27
WIND ENERGY
28
Wind & Solar Power Variability (30 days)
Wind
Solar
Demand
Barnhart et al: The energetic

implications of curtailing versus
storing solar- and wind-generated
electricity
29
Real Time Electricity Pricing
30
Variable & Fixed Costs of Generating Electricity ($/MWh)

Hydro
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind-Offshore
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Total Fixed Costs
Advanced Nuclear
Variable O&M
(including fuel)

Advanced Coal
Conventional Coal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300 $/MWh
31
Thermal Efficiency Coal versus Gas
CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

32
Sources of Air Pollution in the U.S.
33
Coal-Fired Power Plants & Range of Toxic Emissions
34
The Toll from Coal, Clean Air Task Force 2010
Damages from Coal-fired Power Plants (cents/kWh)
Source: The Hidden Costs of Energy, NAS 2010

35
New Federal Regulations on CO2 Emissions

The US EPA issued a new rule that will limit emissions of CO2 to 1,100
lbs/MWhr of production from NEW coal-fired power plants (current
advanced coal plants emit ~1,800 lbs/MWhr) in September 2013
39% reduction
President Obama has ordered the EPA to issue final greenhouse-gas

rules for EXISTING plants no later than June 2015.
36
Projected Additions to U.S. Electric Power Capacity
Source: EIA 2012
GW
37
Carbon Capture & Storage
38
Source: WRI
How Carbon Capture Works
39
Added Capacity in Electric Power Generation 2010-35
The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in

worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global
capacity : International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012
40
Some (Speculative) Trends re Electricity Generation

Renewable sources of energy, especially wind and solar will continue to
grow, but will remain a relatively small fraction of total electrical energy for
the next decade or two.
Natural gas will provide strong price competition for renewable sources and
nuclear power both because of the increased supply and its low ratio of
fixed to variable costs.
Although unlikely, a carbon tax would substantially accelerate the transition
from fossil fuels to renewable sources of electricity.
Natural gas will gradually replace coal in the U.S. assuming methane
leakage and groundwater contamination can be properly managed. This
transition will be accelerated if the EPA succeeds in imposing new
regulations limiting GHG emissions.
Large organizations (e.g. Oracle, eBay, Goggle, UC) will increasingly
purchase and/or build their own sources of electricity.
Global trends and their impact on climate will be dominated by the
developing countries, especially China and India.
41
TRANSPORTATION
42
Light Duty Vehicle Mileage Standards (mpg)
miles
per
gallon
(mpg)
43
Only 20% of Energy Propels the Average Gasoline

Powered Light Duty Vehicle
Source: IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013

44
Electric vs Conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) Vehicles
Source: US Energy Information Agency; McKinsey Analysis

45
Cost of Ownership Honda Civic Gasoline, CNG, HEV
Cost ($)
per mile
Source Bloomberg - Sustainable Energy in America 2013 Factbook

46
Car Incremental Cost versus 2010 Baseline

($26,341 Retail Price)
Legend
FCV = Fuel Cell Vehicles
BEV = Battery electric Vehicles
PHEV = Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
HEV = Hybrid Electric Vehicles
CNG = Compressed Natural Gas
ICE = Internal Combustion Engine
Incremental
cost ($)
Source: Transition to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels NAS 2013

47
LNG --- Heavy Duty Vehicles
48
Americas Natural Gas Highway
Source: Clean Energy
49
STORAGE THE BIG CHALLENGE
An artist's rendition of A123 Systems battery systems at a wind farm. (Credit: A123 Systems)
50
Storage Technologies Capital costs ($/kW)
51
Beyond Li-ion Storage Concepts

electrons
Non-aqueos Redox
Flow
ions
Multivalent
Intercalation
Li+ Mg++, Y+++, . . .
Double or triple energy stored and released
Chemical
Transformation
Intercalation chemical reaction

Li-O2, Li-S, Na-S, . . .
Flowable electrodes
solutions or suspensions
no structural constraints
rich horizon of unexplored redox
couples
Low cost / high capacity
organic
materials
All atoms store and release energy

Source: JCESR
Highest potential, least understood opportunities

52
California Energy Storage Procurement Targets (MW)

California
Investor Owned
Utility (IOU)
2014
2016
2018
2020
Total
Southern
California Edison
90
120
160
210
580
Pacific Gas &

Electric
90
120
160
210
580
San Diego Gas &

Electric
20
30
45
70
165
Totals
200
270
365
490
1,325
Source: CPUC Rulemaking 10-12-007

53
Some (Speculative) Rends re Transportation

Hybrid electric vehicles will become more widely deployed as
new mileage standards are implemented.
Liquified natural gas will become more widely used to power
heavy duty vehicles. However, compressed natural gas is
unlikely to be used widely in light duty vehicles.
Without continued subsidies and or a carbon tax, hybrid and
fully electric light vehicles will not become cost competitive with
internal combustion vehicles for two to three decades
Low cost efficient energy storage, both for transportation and
the electric grid, remains the single most important
technological challenge limiting the widespread deployment of
renewable energy and electric vehicles.
54
Thanks to Claire Dooley for help preparing the slides and Jen
McJannet for a critical reading of the talk.
55
Some (Speculative) Concluding Remarks

The recent development of unconventional sources of oil and gas will spur
the continued use of fossil fuels.
The U.S. will become less dependent on imported sources of energy.
Renewable sources of energy, especially wind and solar will continue to
grow, but will remain a relatively small fraction of total electrical energy for
the next decade or two.
Natural gas will gradually replace coal in the U.S. assuming methane
leakage and groundwater contamination can be properly managed.
Natural gas will become more widely used to power heavy duty vehicles,
but is not likely to impact light duty vehicles.
Low cost efficient energy storage, both for transportation and the electric
grid, remains the single most important challenge limiting the widespread
deployment of renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Although the U.S. has the capacity to comply with the 2 degree scenario, it
is much more challenging for China and India to do so.
56
Total U.S. Energy Production & Consumption (1015 BTU)

57
Carbon Intensity --- a Measure of Clean Energy
Source:
shrinkthatfootprint.com
58
Per Capita GHG Emissions by State
SOURCE: The Vulcan Project, ASU
59
US Energy Efficiency Supply Curve 2020 (McKinsey)
$13.80 /
MMBTU
The average cost of these end-use energy savings is $4.40 /

MMBTU: 68% below the weighted average across all fuel types.
60
Levelized Cost of New Electric Power in U.S. ($/kWh)

Hydro
Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Wind-Offshore
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Advanced Nuclear
Advanced Coal
Conventional Coal
Note: These are costs

for new generation
that would come
online in ~2018;
exclusive of subsidies
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas Fired
Coal fired
$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30

Source: US Energy Information Agency
Cost / kWh
61
Coal versus Natural Gas
Reuters 2012
62
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel
63

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The Changing Energy Landscape

U.S. Energy Consumption 2011

Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA)

China Energy Consumption 2009

Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA)

Energy Use Per Capita by Country

U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per GDP

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel (1015 BTU)

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel (1012 kWhr/yr)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Projected GHG Emissions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Assessed Shale Oil and Shale Gas Formations (2013)

U.S. Domestic Natural Gas Production (1012 cubic feet)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

U.S. Domestic Crude Oil Production (106 barrels/day)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2013

Technically Recoverable Unconventional Oil & Gas

Increase in U.S. natural

Increase in non U.S.

Increase in non U.S.

Net Oil & Gas Imports in Selected Countries

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012

Geopolitical Impact of Unconventional Oil & Gas

Virtually eliminates U.S. requirements for

share of world gas

supply from Russia,

Iran, and Venezuela

Reduces the opportunity for Venezuela to

Source: Baker Institute for Public Policy 2010

Methane Leakage & Global Warming Potential (GWP)

Source: World Resources Institute 2013

Methane was detected in 82% of

Growing & Changing Share of World Energy Demand

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration | Annual Energy Outlook 2012

Carbon Intensity --- a Measure of Clean Energy

SOURCE: IEA: Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013

Reaching the 2 Degree Climate Scenario

Source: IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013

U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel

Levelized Cost of New Electric Power in U.S. ($/kWh)

Note: These are costs

$0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30

c-Si PV Manufacturing & Cost Trends

Wind & Solar Power Variability (30 days)

Barnhart et al: The energetic

Real Time Electricity Pricing

Variable & Fixed Costs of Generating Electricity ($/MWh)

Conventional Combustion Turbine

Thermal Efficiency Coal versus Gas

CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

Sources of Air Pollution in the U.S.

Coal-Fired Power Plants & Range of Toxic Emissions

The Toll from Coal, Clean Air Task Force 2010

Damages from Coal-fired Power Plants (cents/kWh)

Source: The Hidden Costs of Energy, NAS 2010

New Federal Regulations on CO2 Emissions

President Obama has ordered the EPA to issue final greenhouse-gas

Projected Additions to U.S. Electric Power Capacity

Source: EIA 2012

Carbon Capture & Storage

How Carbon Capture Works