Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change

Prof. F. Sherwood Rowland

U.C.I.-NASA
July 15, 2009
 Carbon dioxide as a pollutant? April 2, 2007
SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES

Justice Stevens delivered the opinion of the Court.

A well-documented rise in global temperatures has coincided

with a significant increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide
in the atmosphere. Respected scientists believe the two trends
are related. For when carbon dioxide is released into the
atmosphere, it acts like the ceiling of a greenhouse, trapping solar
energy and retarding the escape of reflected heat. It is therefore a
species – the most important species – of a “greenhouse gas.”
GREENHOUSE GASES
Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide
390 ppm,
May 2009
Keeling and Whorf, 2005

Mauna Loa, Hawaii

(Red)
Global Temperature Change (°C)

J. Hansen, 2009
 INFRARED FROM SPACE
CO2 Sahara Desert
12:04 GMT
29°N 8.6°W
O3
RADIANCE

H2O

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

WAVE NUMBER (cm-1)
 INFRARED FROM SPACE
South Atlantic Ocean
11:41 GMT
48.7°S 14.2°
E
CO2
RADIANCE

O3

H2O

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

WAVE NUMBER (cm-1)
Calculated Surface Temperature of Earth
as a hot sphere: –18°C (0°F)

Observed Surface Temperature of Earth:

+ 14°C (57°F)

Natural Greenhouse Effect

+ 32°C 57°F
GREENHOUSE GASES
ATMOSPHERIC NITROUS OXIDE, N2O

IPCC
GREENHOUSE GASES
 Rolling one-year
Global average

1 1990 2000 2010

YEAR
 CO2

CH4

N2O
CFC-12

Radiative Climate Forcings, 1750-2005 NOAA-CMDL

Watts per square meter
cooling warming
IPCC
 GREENHOUSE EFFECT
SNOW ALBEDO FEEDBACK

PRESENT WARMER

GROUND SNOW GROUND SNOW

0.2 0.8 ALBEDO 0.2 0.8

1) WARMER AIR
2) SNOW MELTS AT MARGIN
3) MORE SOLAR VISIBLE ABSORBED
4) MORE IR RADIATION NEEDED TO BALANCE

STRONGER GREENHOUSE EFFECT

 GREENHOUSE EFFECT
ICE ALBEDO FEEDBACK

PRESENT WARMER

ICE ICE
WATER WATER
0.1 0.8 ALBEDO 0.1 0.8

1) WARMER AIR
2) ICE MELTS AT MARGIN
3) MORE SOLAR VISIBLE ABSORBED
4) MORE IR RADIATION NEEDED TO BALANCE

STRONGER GREENHOUSE EFFECT

GREENHOUSE GASES
 GREENHOUSE EFFECT
WATER VAPOR FEEDBACK
VAPOR PRESSURE
H2O (mm Hg) ABSOLUTE RELATIVE
Hurricane Minimum
28.33 1.35
28 [27°C = 81°F] ⇓ 26.74 1.27
26
25.21 1.20
24 23.76 1.13

22 22.38 1.06
21.07 1.00
20
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 °C

• WARMER AIR
• MORE H2O IN AIR
• MORE IR TRAPPED BY H2O
STRONGER GREENHOUSE EFFECT
GREENHOUSE GASES
 INFRARED FROM SPACE
CO2 Sahara Desert
12:04 GMT
29°N 8.6°W
O3
RADIANCE

H2O

400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

WAVE NUMBER (cm-1)
 530

CFC-12 (ppt)
520

510

500

1996 2000 2004

Concentration of CCl2F2 (CFC-12) vs. time. Units parts per 1012 .

Northern Hemisphere (blue), Global (green), Southern Hemisphere (red).
 Maximum at ground level about 1993

280

CFC-11 (ppt)
270

260

1996 2000 2004

Concentration of CCl3F (CFC-11) vs. time. Units parts per 1012 .

Northern Hemisphere (blue), Global (green), Southern Hemisphere (red).

Dutton et al., NOAA/CMDL

GREENHOUSE GASES
From Lorius
et al, 1990
Temperature over the last 420,000 years
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

CO2

We are
here
St. Croix, Virgin Islands
February 1978
Methane vs. Latitude: Jan.1980

North South
Methane vs. Latitude: Jan.1980-Dec.1987

North South
Methane vs. Latitude: Jan.1980-Dec.1993

North South
Methane vs. Latitude: Jan.1980-Dec.2000

North South
Methane vs. Latitude: Jan.1980-Dec.2004

North South
Rolling One-Year
Global Average
Mar/Jun/Sep/Dec
Comparison with ethane

CH4 and ethane

• Correlate
remarkably well
• Suggests source-
driven CH4
changes
Long-term
global ethane
decline
• Fossil fuel decline?
Short-term

• Ethane peaks
match CH4 peaks
• Contributions from
 Ozone Hole October 8, 2005
Punta Arenas, Chile 156 D.U.
Ushuaia, Argentina 161 D.U.

Halley Bay 113 D.U

Total Ozone (Dobson Units)

110 220 330 440 550

White
House, July
1997
Comparison with ethane
Global Ethane

Ethane (C2H6):
➤ Until this year, we
had only retrieved
ethane data since
1996
➤ We are now in the
process of retrieving
ethane data since
1984
➤ Currently all data from
1984-2004 have been
retrieved, except
1991-1994
Comparison with C2Cl4

CH4 and C2Cl4

• Do not correlate
Long-term global
C2Cl4 decline
• Source-driven
• Decreasing
industrial emissions
[Simpson et al., 2004]

Short-term C2Cl4

• 1996: Peak
- Montreal Protocol
• 1998: No peak
• 2003: Small peak
- OH from biomass
Comparison with C2Cl4

CH4 and C2Cl4

• Do not correlate
Long-term global
C2Cl4 decline
• Source-driven
• Decreasing
industrial emissions
[Simpson et al., 2004]

Short-term C2Cl4

• 1996: Peak
- Montreal Protocol
• 1998: No peak
• 2003: Small peak
- OH from biomass