FUTURE OF CIVILIZATIONS:

PROSPECTS & CHALLENGES

CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS?

Samuel P. Huntington (born April

18, 1927)

A political scientist & professor at Harvard

University. 1960s, published Political Order in Changing Societies. 1993, incited a major debate following his article, The Clash of Civilizations? published in the journal Foreign Affairs. Expanded into a full-length book, The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order.

 The theory of the clash of civilizations:

1. the world will experience and witness cultural
conflicts along cultural and religious lines. conflicts between civilizations rather than nations or ideologies. - Faith and family , blood and belief, are what people identify with and what they will fight and die for.

2. Divides the world into seven/eight major civilizations (based on religion, geographical proximity and language):

Western Christendom Latin America Orthodox Islamic civilization Hindu civilization Sinic civilization Japanese civilization Sub-Saharan Africa

3. Sinic and Islamic civilizations - future threats to the West. With the challenger civilizations, Islam and China, the West is likely to have consistently strained and often highly antagonistic relations (p. 184) - An Islamic-Confucian connection is emerging against the West. 4. Western civilization may lose its predominance if fail to recognize cultural rifts/conflicts. - Early actions need to be taken to prevent conflicts from spreading into world wars.

- The challenge for Western policy-makers is to make sure that the West gets stronger.

5. Continued insistence towards democratizations and interventionism will only further antagonize other civilizations. 6. The Orthodox, Hindu and Japanese civilizations are swing civilizations, with the potential to move in different directions viv-a-vis the West. 7. Torn countries countries that are seeking to affiliate with another civilization. Eg. Turkey.

The breakup of Yugoslavia (Serbs v Bosnians) Russian war in Chechnya War between India and Pakistan September 11 event. The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan (2001) The U.S. invasion of Iraq (2003) Madrid Train Bombings (2005) London Bombings (2005) Jyllands-Posten Prophet Muhammad Cartoon Controversy (2006)

Huntingtons Critics
His theory serves as the theoretical basis to
legitimize others. US-led West aggression against

His advocacy to take early actions to prevent

world wars explains US policy of attacking countries that are not currently a threat but could potentially be one in the future. different cultures to get along because they suspend their standard judgments.

Absurd because it is often easier for people of

 E.g. conflicts within the same culture: the Hutus

and Tutsis, North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, the Falkland Island Crisis.

His identified civilizations present little unity.

E.g: -Vietnam (Sinic Civ) still keeps a massive army, mostly to guard against China. - The Muslim world divided along ethnic and religious lines. - Cultural differences between Korean and China are not less important than between Japan and China.

Reactions to Huntingtons Theory

Dialogue Among Civilizations - a theory in international relations. - Introduced by Mohammad Khatami, former -

President of Iran. As a response to Huntingtons theory. Became famous after the United Nations (UN) adopted a resolution to name the year 2001 as the YEAR OF DIALOGUE AMONG CIVILIZATIONS. There are currently several international organizations that are directly or indirectly pursuing the idea.

 Alliance of Civilizations - a proposed conference to overcome cultural and

-

social barriers between mainly the Christian and Muslim world. Proposed by Spanish Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero in the 59th General Assembly of the UN. Supported by Turkish Prime Minister. A committee, the High-Level Group (HLG) for the Alliance of Civilization (AoC) consists of eminent policy-makers, academicians, leaders of societies and media. 1st meeting (Nov 2005), 2nd meeting (Feb 2006)

 Chinas Peaceful Rise

- or Chinas peaceful development. - First used by Zheng Bijian, a leader of CCP in -

2003. To reassure the nations of East Asia and United States that the rise of the PRC in military and economic prominence will not be a threat to peace and stability, and that other nations will benefit from the rise of the PRC. Emphasizes multilateral cooperation through institutions like Six Power Talks, and calls for peaceful diplomacy over border disputes. Seeks to avoid confrontation with the U.S.

Francis Fukuyama
A work entitled in The End of History. A theory of the end of history the world had

reached the end of history. Liberal democracy and Western values had become the only remaining ideology for nations in the post-Cold War period.

Classification of Powers
Superpower Hyperpower Potential Superpowers Major power Regional power BRIC

Map for article Superpower showing the two Cold War superpowers of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in red and the United States of America in blue.

Super power
Super from Latin superus (upper or superior) Power from Latin potere (ability to do
something Literally means the superior ability to do something. A state with the first rank in the international system and has the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale. The term in its current political meaning was coined in The Superpowers (1943) by W. T. R. Fox.

 In early 1940s, the superpowers were the U.S,

Soviet Union and Great Britain. The immediate post-war years and during Cold War period, the superpowers were U.S and Soviet Union. After the disintegration of Soviet Union (1990s), the remaining superpower is U.S.

The criteria of a Superpower:

Cultural Geographical Economic and financial Demographic Military Political or Ideological

Hyperpower
Coined by French foreign minister, Hubert
Vedrine in the 1990s. Applied to the U.S, the sole superpower of the Cold War era U.S. as Hyperpower, has no equals in terms of power and influence. Controversial. Unipolar world versus Multipolar world.

Potential Superpowers
China European Union India

The People's Republic of China is in red, the European Union in blue and the Republic of India in green. Countries which are currently in the process of joining the European Union or have officially started talks are colored in purple; these are Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia and Turkey.

CHINA

EU

INDIA

Major powers
Brazil France Germany Japan Russia United Kingdom

Map showing major powers; The Federative Republic of Brazil is in pink, the French Republic is in brown, the Federal Republic of Germany is in green, Japan is in gold, the Russian Federation is in red and the United Kingdom of

Regional powers

India & Pakistan (South Asia) Argentina, Mexico & Brazil (Latin America) South Africa & Nigeria (Sub-Saharan Africa) Israel, Turkey, Iran & Egypt (Middle East) China & Japan (East Asia) Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines & Singapore (Southeast Asia) United Kingdom, France & Germany (Europe) Russia (former Soviet bloc and Central Asia) Australia and New Zealand (Pacific)

Muslims and World Politics

Islamic civilization lots of potential. Viewed as a threat to the West. Islam is second largest religion in the world is

growing faster numerically than any of the other major world religions (Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism). The growth rate 2.9 % annually compared to 2.3 % annually of global population growth. Higher birth rates in many Muslim countries (six out of top-ten countries in the world with the highest birth rates are majority Muslims) Muslim population 1.4 billion.

 Muslims not confined to one place spread all

over the world (Asia, Europe, America) Muslims controlling major trading waterways; Malacca Strait, Mediterranean Sea, Suez canal, Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Aegean Sea. One ideology Islam (Quran).

Muslims weaknesses:

No unity. Sunni, Shia (Twelvers, Niners, Fivers, Ismaili,

Nizari Ismaili, Mustaali Bohra, Dawoodi Bohra, Sulaimani Bohra), Wahhabis (Salafis), Ibadhi Muslims (Kharijites)

 The

Nation of Islam, Zikris, Ahmadiyya (Qadiani), Al-Ahbash (Habashies) The Druze, Alawites (Alnusairiya) Tribalism, nationalism, secularism. Lack of communications between sub-cultures. Poverty, illiteracy 80 % of world refugees are Muslims. Dominated by foreign influence / foreign intervention Western pressure, Western capital & Western market. Bad images; terrorists. Lack military power; science and technology. Undemocratic governments; no syura.

BRIC
The combination of Brazil, Russia, India and

China. May become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050 Proposed by Jim ONeil.

The four BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China