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Jeff Dayton-Johnson Johannes Jtting OECD Development Centre 21 November 2007 Bundesministerium fr wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung Berlin
Brain drain versus brain gain Remittances substitute or complement to aid Development policies can they stop emigration?
7
10 9 8 7 6 5 4
3
2 1 0 1950 1960 World 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
EU-15
Intra-EU migration: ABOUT HALF
Africa (13.6 per cent)
Morocco: 4.5 Algeria: 3.9 Tunisia: 1.3 Angola: 0.6 South Africa: 0.6 Kenya: 0.4 Egypt: 0.4 Nigeria: 0.4 Senegal: 0.4 Somalia: 0.3 Ghana: 0.3 Dem. Republic of Congo: 0.3 Mozambique: 0.2
27%
28%
25%
15%
Sub-Saharan Africa 3%
South Asia 4%
Middle East/North Africa 8%
11
The relative importance of each effect varies over the migration cycle
Source: OECD (2007)
12
14
Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants, 2004/2005; Cohen and Soto (2001)
15
Remittances matter.
Money sent home annually, per migrant (2000) 2686.5
926.4
766.5
Gulf Countries
EU-15
US
7.0
5.0
1.0 Investment
Consumption Goods
Education Saving
17
Probably not
Adjustment is a long-term process Demographic factors will slow it further Migration hump hypothesis; with prosperity, more emigration Pitfalls of using aid to influence migration
20
Summing up
1. Humanitarian crisis/illegal migration only part of the inflow 2. Brain drain more complex; some countries gain by exporting 3. Remittances good, but not good enough 4. Complex interaction: development migration
21
23
4) Concluding remarks
Migration an integral part of globalisation Creating more awareness of the development migration nexus Striving for policy coherence Not raising false hopes, promoting realistic solutions
27
28
29
Netherlands
Spain* Italy Greece* Portugal
125-230
690 700 370 185
0.8-1.4
1.6 1.2 3.4 1.8
2004
2005 (4) 2002 (4) 2001 (3) 2001 (6)
31
Mexico
Colombia
Hati
Peru
2002
2003
2004
Guatemala
El Salvador
Venezuela
Nicaragua
Honduras
Ecuador
2000
2001
32
Average
Bolivia