Professional Documents
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Contents
Background
Study objectives, framework
Bioethanol production United States 36% Brazil 33% China 7.5% India 3.7% Total 80.2%
The study
Objectives International market responses Resource and environment dynamics Potential impacts on crop-livestockenergy systems Policy and research priorities
Objectives
Analyze the present situation of biofuel production in relation to agriculture in developing countries Identify and profile typical local crop-livestock-energy farming systems (CLEFS) Estimate international market responses
Household livelihood
Market Environment
Crops
Livestock
Preliminary results
Poultry
76
99
114
131
17
24
93
123
60
69
345
414
Region ROW* Europe ROW USA Brazil Europe ROW USA Brazil ROW USA Europe ROW
Baseline 660 97 2,021 35,000 16 1,563 530 354 834 163 265 1,242 205
Business usual 6,842 1,086 20,511 130,000 153 14,572 4,211 3,017 9,014 1,797 3,450 10,703 2,342
as
Aggressive 13,684 2,173 41,023 260,000 306 29,144 8,423 6,034 18,029 3,595 6,900 21,407 4,685
Oil Seeds
Sugar
Wheat
Biofuel expansion
Source: IFPRI IMPACT projections Increase is over the 2020 baseline levels
0
Be ef La m b Eg gs Po rk Po ul try M ilk
2000
Business as usual
Aggressive
Biofuel impacts on carbon savings and GHGs emission depend on how they are produced.
First generation
Business-as-usual Aggressive Great increase Less increase
Second generation
Business-as-usual Aggressive impact for maize stover
provision
nutrition,
drought disease
High biomass, nutrition, drought tolerance fertilizer use, and and disease
High biomass, nutrition, drought tolerance fertilizer use, and and disease
Field management
use,
and
residue management
residue management
residue management
residue management
Policy implications
Research priorities
Policy implications
Foster widespread use of second generation bioethanol production Reduce, amend, or even eliminate biofuels trade barriers Avoid aggressive biofuel expansion through subsidies which runs ahead of the availability of proven sustainable feedstock and biofuel production technologies Target rate of expansion of biofuels to the particular agricultural resource base and crop-livestock-energy systems as well as available technologies of each country Encourage small and medium size feedstock farmers and also small scale biofuel technologies
Research priorities
Life cycle analyses (LCA) Biofuel value chain and local markets study Strategic assessment and targeting Early warning system in hotspots Integrated crop-livestock-energy models Management of crop residues Local innovation and learning Sense-act-observe-adjust