Electronic Components Consulting Services Inc.

Reliability Calculations
What, Why, When & How do we benefit from them?

What are Reliability Calculations?

Methodology for analyzing the expected or actual reliability of a product, process or service, and identifying actions to reduce failures or mitigate their effect.
Stress Analysis Reliability Predictions FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) or FMECA (Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis)

Yardstick for comparison of design approaches

Cost-Benefit Trade

Why Do Reliability Calculations?

Make the product more reliable
Selling feature Reduce returns Lower costs Enhance or maintain company reputation Comparisons with competition

Customer request
Design goal Hard Requirement

Stress Analysis
Establishes the presence of a safety margin
Good engineering practice Enhances system life Provides input data for Reliability Prediction
Describes operating condition as a percentage of rating

Customer requirement Validates compliance with Derating Criteria

Reliability Predictions (MTBF)

Form the basis of Reliability Analyses
Compute predicted system failure rate or Mean Time Between Failures
Failure Rate is usually expressed in Failures per 106 or 109 hours MTBF is usually expressed in terms of hours
Example: for a system with a predicted MTBF of 1000 hours, on average the system experiences one failure in 1000 hours of operation or a Failure Rate of 1000 per 106 hours

Methodology
Use accepted standards
Model failure rates of components Analyze system Calculate the system predicted failure rate or MTBF

Evaluate prediction vs target or required MTBF

Evaluate stress or temperature reduction design changes Evaluate practicality of design change especially when MTBF is self imposed

Reliability Predictions (Continued)

Common Standards
MIL-HDBK-217
Generally associated with military systems
Models are very detailed Provides for many environments Provides multiple quality levels

Bellcore (Telcordia)
Telecommunications Industry standard
Seems to have supplanted French CNET and British Telcom standards Models patterned after MIL-HDBK-217, but simplified Provides multiple quality levels Can incorporate current laboratory test data Can incorporate current field performance data

Other Standards
Auto Industry

Resources
Software packages cover both MIL-HDBK-217 and Bellcore models
RELEX is widely available

Reliability Predictions (Continued)

General approach to Prediction
Model for a single part consists of a number of factors multiplied together
ss = G * Q * S * T
ss = Steady State Failure rate G = Generic or Base Failure Rate Q = Quality Factor S = Stress Factor T = Temperature Factor Other factors: First Year Multiplier or Experience Factor

Model for a unit

Consists of the sum of all of the individual part failure rates multiplied by an Environmental Factor E

Source of Factor Information- varies with method used

Lookup table Calculation based upon complexity

Reliability Predictions
The first cut is made with little analysis to get a rough idea where the design is relative to the desired outcome
Better numbers come from better insight into the design Factors to be considered include Duty Cycle and refined Thermal and Stress Analyses

FMEA or FMECA
Design FMEA
FMEA is a bottoms up method of analyzing and improving a design
Heavily used by US automotive industry Chrysler, Ford, GM require this type of analysis Many different company and industry standards Most widely used is the AIAG (Automotive Industry Action Group) standard Analytic Process Consider each component or functional block and how it can fail (Failure Modes) Determine the Effect of each failure mode, and the severity on system function Determine the likelihood of occurrence and of detecting the failure. Calculate the Risk Priority Number, or RPN, using the formula as follows:
RPN = Severity x Occurrence x Detection

Consider corrective actions (may reduce severity of occurrence, or increase probably of detection) Start with the higher RPN values (most severe problems) and work down Recalculate RPN after the corrective actions have been determined, the aim is to minimize RPN

FMEA or FMECA (Continued)

Process FMEA
Similar to a Design FMEA but is applied to a manufacturing process or service. The object is to use this methodology to optimize processes.

FMECA
A FMECA is similar to a FMEA,
Criticality is computed in place of RPN . FMECAs are used extensively in military, aerospace and medical equipment fields, for both design and process reliability analysis. MIL-HDBK-1629 is a widely accepted standard for FMECAs.

When
Stress Analysis
Prior to release of design to production Prior to implementation of design changes

Reliability predictions should be done at all stages of design

Early design stage- Reliability Prediction may a rough estimate Late design stage- Reliability Prediction is refined Fielded system- revised prediction can incorporate field data for future use

Design FMEA or FMECA

As design matures, impact of failure needs to be addressed

Process FMEA
During process design Prior to implementing new or updated processes

Famous Flubs
BART (Bay Area Rapid Transit)
FMEA not performed or inadequate
Oscillator Crystal Failure- Open. Oscillator Frequency went up
Train speed increased rapidly Train overshot last stop Train rammed barrier at high speed Very serious accident

Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant Accident

Results of FMEA waived
Main & Redundant Instrumentation & Control Wiring
Required to be in separate cable trays in case of fire Requirement waived as a cost saving Fire in containment wall insulation during leak check Fire destroyed main and redundant I & C wiring

Nuclear Plant on fire and out of control for several days

Reliability Calculations
Summary
What: Analysis Toolkit Why: Product Improvement Reduced Cost When: Early for Design Feedback Prior to Completion to Validate Goals Benefit: Reduced Field Failures Reduced Warranty Costs Better Customer Relations