PROBABILITY

Basic Definitions:
1. Statistical Experiments is any process that generates a data.

Rolling dice

Flipping a coin

Picking a card

2. Definition: The set of all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment is called the SAMPLE SPACE and is denoted by S.

Examples: Tossing coin S ={head, tail} Rolling a die S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Each outco e i! a "a #le i" called a! element o$ a member o% the "a #le "#ace o$ "i #l& a "a #le #oi!t'

Basic Definitions: 3. Definition. An EVENT is a subset of a sample space.

a) If an e ent is a set containing only one element of the sample space! then it is called a simple e ent. b) A compound e ent is one that can be expressed as the union of simple e ents.

"xamples: #. The e ent of dra$ing a heart from a dec% of &2 playing cards is a subset. 'et A ( ) heart * subset of the sample space + ( ) heart! spade! club! diamond *.
Therefore! A is a simple e ent.

2. 'et B the e ent of dra$ing a red card is a compound e ent! since B ( ) heart diamond *

Basic Definitions:
,. Definition: Null Space -or empty space) is a subset of the sample space that contains no elements! denoted by . &. Definition: Venn Diagram simplest $ay of illustrating the relationship bet$een e ents and the corresponding S.

Basic Definitions:
.. The COMPLEMENT of an e ent $ith respect to S is the subset of all elements of + that are not in A! denoted by A. Example: 'et R be the e ent that a red card is selected from an ordinary dec% of &2 playing cards! and let + be the entire dec%. Then R is the e ent that the card selected from the dec% is not a red but a blac% card.

Basic Definitions:
/. Definition: The intersection of t o e!ents A an" B! denoted by the symbol AB! is the e ent containing all elements that are common to A and to 0. 1otation: A B $hich is read 2A intersection 03.
Intersection of A and 0 may also be defined concisely by

A B = ! ! A" ! B#$

Basic Definitions:
"xample #) 4enn diagram: A 0

A 0 is shaded

Basic Definitions:

5. Definition: T$o e ents A and 0 are M#T#ALL$ E%CL#S&VE or dis6oint if AB ' ( that is if A and 0 ha e no elements in common.
A 0

Basic Definitions:
7. Definition: The union of t%o e&ents A and B! denoted by A B! is the e ents containing all the elements that belong to A or 0 or both.
The union of A and 0 may also be defined concisely by A 0 ( )x x A or x 0*.

A
A 0 is shaded

Basic Definitions:

#8. Theorem: +e eral results that follo$ from the foregoing definitions! $hich may easily be erified by means of 4enn diagrams! are as follo$s:

Basic Definitions: a) A9 (
c) A ( A e) A 9 A: ( g) A A: ( +

Basic Definitions:
e) +: ( ) : ( + i) -A:): ( A %) -A90): ( A:0: i) -A0): ( A:90:

'!ercises:
#. 'ist the elements of each of the follo$ing sample spaces:
a) the set of integers bet$een # and &8 di isible by 5; b) the set + ( )x x2 < ,x & ( 8*; c) the set of outcomes $hen a coin is tossed until a tail or three heads appear; d) the set + ( )x x is a continent*; e) the set + ( )x 2x , = 8 and x> #*.

'!ercises:
2. An experiment in ol es tossing a pair of dice! # green and # red! and recording the numbers that come up. If x e?uals the outcome on the green die and y the outcome on the red die! describe the sample space + by listing the elements -x! y).

'!ercises:
+olution: + ( )-#!#)! -#!2)! -#!3)! -#!,)! -#!&)! -#!.)! -2!#)! -2!2)! -2!3)! -2!,)! -2!&)! -2!.)! -3!#)! -3!2)! -3!3)! -3!,)! -3!&)! -3!.)! -,!#)! -,!2)! -,!3)! -,!,)! -,!&)! -,!.)! -&!#)! -&!2)! -&!3)! -&!,)! -&!&)! -&!.)! -.!#)! -.!2)! -.!3)! -.!,)! -.!&)! -.!.)*

'!ercises:
3. @or the sample space abo e! a) list the elements corresponding to the e ent A that the sum is greater than 5; b) list the elements corresponding to the e ent 0 that a 2 occurs on either die; c) list the elements corresponding to the e ent A that the a number greater than , comes on the green die; d) list the elements corresponding to the e ent A9A; e) list the elements corresponding to the e ent A90; f) list the elements corresponding to the e ent 09A.

'!ercises:
,. If S ( )8! #! 2! 3! ,! &! .! /! 5! 7* and A ( )8! 2! ,! .! 5*! B ( )#! 3! &! /! 7*! ( ( )2! 3! ,! &*! and D ( )#! .! /*! list the elements of the sets corresponding to the follo$ing e ents: a) AA; c) A:; e) -+9 A):; b) A90; d) -A:9D) 0; f) A9A9D: .

BuiC next meetingD

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent

Eerhaps it $as man:s un?uenchable thirst for gambling that led to the early de elopment of probability theory. In an effort to increase their $innings! gamblers called upon mathematicians to pro ide optimum strategies for arious games of chance. +ome of the mathematicians pro iding these strategies $ere Eascal! 'eibniC! @ermat! and Fames 0ernoulli. As a result of this de elopment of probability theory! statistical nference! $ith all its predictions and generaliCations! has branched out far beyond games of chance to encompass many other fields associated $ith chance occurrences! such as politics! $eather forecasting! and scientific research. @or these predictions and generaliCations to be reasonably accurate! an understanding of basic probability theory is essential.

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
Ghat do $e mean $hen $e ma%e the statements 2Fohn $ill probable $in the tennis match3! 2I ha e a fiftyHfifty chance of getting an e en number $hen a die is tossed3! 2I am not li%ely to $in at bingo tonight3! 2Iost of our graduating class $ill li%ely be married $ithin 3 years3 J

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
In each case $e are expressing an outcome of $hich we are not certain! but o$ing to past information or from understanding of the structure of the experiment! $e ha e some degree of confidence in the alidity of the statement.

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
The li%elihood of the occurrence of an e ent resulting from such a statistical experiment is e aluated by means of a set of real numbers called ei)*ts or pro+a+ilities ranging from 8 to #. To e ery point in the sample space $e assign a probability such that the sum of all probabilities is #. To find the probability of an e ent A! $e sum all the probabilities assigned to the sample points in A. This sum is called the probability of A and is denoted by E-A).

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
#. ,efinition: The probability of an e ent A is the sum of the $eights of all sample points in A. Therefore! + , P-A. , /" P- . = +" and P-S. = /$

"xample #. A coin is tossed t$ice. Ghat is the probability that at least one head occursJ

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
"xample 2. A die is loaded in such a $ay that an e en number is t$ice as li%ely to occur as an odd number. If E is the e ent that a number less than , occurs on a single toss of the die! find E-E).

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
If the sample space for an experiment contains 1 elements! all of $hich are e?ually li%ely to occur! $e assign a probability e?ual to #K1 to each of the 1 points. The probability of any e ent A containing n of these 1 sample points is then the ratio of the number of elements in A to the number of elements in +.

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
2. T*eorem: If an experiment can result in any one of N different e?ually li%ely outcomes! and if exactly n of these outcomes corresponds to e ent A! then the probability of e ent A is

P-A. = n0N$
$here: n number of sample points in an e ent A! 1 total number of sample points in sample space
+.

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
"xample 3. A mixture of candies contains . mints! , toffees! and 3 chocolates. If a person ma%es a random selection of one of these candies! find the probability of getting -a) a mint! or -b) a toffee or a chocolate.

Pro)a)ilit* of an '&ent
"xample ,. In a po%er hand consisting of & cards! find the probability of holding 2 aces and 3 6ac%s.

Additi&e Rules
-. T*eorem: Additi&e Rules If A and 0 are any t$o e ents! then P-A B. = P-A. 1 P-B. 2 P-A B.$

A B

Additi&e Rules
"xample &. The probability that Eaula $ill passes Iathematics is 2K3! and the probability that she passes "nglish is ,K7. If the probability of passing both courses is #K,! $hat is the probability that Eaula $ill pass at least one of these coursesJ

Additi&e Rules
,. Corollar.: If A and 0 are mutually exclusi e! then P-A B. = P-A. 1 P-B.$

Additi&e Rules
"xample .. Ghat is the probability of getting a total of / or ## $hen a pair of dice are tossedJ

Additi&e Rules
&. T*eorem: If A and A: are complementary e ents! then P-A. 1 P-A. = /$ Eroof: +ince A A: ( + and the sets A and A:

are dis6oint! then

# ( E-+) ( E-A A: ) ( E-A) < E-A:) .

Additi&e Rules
"xample /. The probability that tomorro$ $ill rain is &&L. Ghat is the probability that it $ill not rain tomorro$J