Science & Technology ---Imperatives for SocioEconomic Development

Atta-ur-Rahman
Ph.D. (Cambridge), Sc.D. (Cambridge)

Federal Minister & Chairman, Higher Education Commission , Government of Pakistan President, Pakistan Academy of Sciences Coordinator General, COMSTECH

VISION
Economic development is no longer dependent on natural resources (eg.Japan,European countries) KNOWLEDGE has now become the main driving force of world economies and hence the basis of socio-economic development INDUSTRIALIZATION is the key to high GDP growth (through production & export of high value-added goods (engineering goods,pharmaceuticals,IT,Biotechnology, etc.)

The World Today

Over 6 billion people inhabit the earth, an increase of 140
per cent over the past fifty years

One Fifth of humanity survive on less than one dollar a

day

About 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water

7.7 million children die before their first birthday 25% of 4,630 mammal species and 11% of 9,675 bird
species are on the verge of complete extinction

20-30% population of Sub-Saharan Africa is HIV positive.

The World in Next 50 Years

Population
Fossil Fuel Resources Rain Forests Life Expectancy
9.5 Billion by 2050 80% Reduction by 2050 45% Reduction by 2050 Closer to 100 years

Urban Population

More than 60% globally

Living in a Changing World----the only constant is change

New biology is decoding the blue print of life, learning to manage the placement and expression of genes and mobilizing microorganisms to do our work for the production of new products
New innovations are altering and expanding the notions of development.

Living in a Changing World Technology is the great divider--the rich are getting richer and the poor, poorer World is inflicted with poverty, hunger, disease, conflicts, violence, & economic uncertainty

The Growing Gap

Investment in Health Research

Out of over 1,400 new medicines introduced in clinical use in last 25 years, only 14 were for tropical diseases (poor mans diseases)

Exciting Horizons
Genomics---plant and animal structure The living cellcancer, ageing Neuroscience, The human brain---the final frontier? Apoptosis ,structure-function relationships---new species!! Material Sciences (nano-science) Alternative energy (Hydrogen fuel cells, biomass-Amsterdam ,wind, water, solar) Robotics, machine intelligence Dark matter---Higgs boson---birth of universe---black holes

NANOTECHNOLOGY

MATERIAL SCIENCES

MOLECULAR MEDICINE

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

SPACE SCIENCES

GDP OF ISLAMIC WORLD

THE TOTAL GDP OF ALL OIC MEMBER COUNTRIES IS ONLY USD 1200bln---LESS THAN HALF OF GERMANY(USD 2500bln) AND LESS THAN A QUARTER OF JAPAN (USD 5000bln)!!!----INSPITE OF OUR HAVING OVER 70% OF THE WORLDS ENERGY RESOURCES AND A QUARTER OF THE WORLDS POPULATION
JAPAN HAS VIRTUALLY NO NATURAL RESOURCES BUT OVER 1000 UNIVERSITIES (OVER 120 IN TOKYO ALONE)----IN CONTRAST ONLY ABOUT 500 UNIVERSITIES IN ISLAMIC WORLD!!

Expenditure on Defense, Health and R & D (Asian OIC Countries)

5 4 3 2 1 0
% of GDP

4.1

1.4

0.3

Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries

Expenditure on Defense, Health and R & D (African OIC Countries)

3
3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5

% of GDP 2

0.1

0
Defense Health R&D
Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries

Expenditure on Defense, Health and R & D (Arab OIC Countries)

8 6 4 2 0

7.1

% of GDP

1.25

0.2

Source: Strategy for the Development of Science & Technology in Islamic Countries

Strategy for Economic Development HE,S&T

Country Population (Million) GDP (Billion US$) Knowledge Based Economies

Belgium
Austria Denmark Norway OIC Countries Pakistan Iran Saudi Arabia Turkey
Source: Human Development Report 2001

10.2
8.1 5.3 4.4 150 69.2 19.6 65.7

248
208 174 152 95 110 139 185

Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan Transition from Agriculture to Knowledge-Based Economies

1960 : Over 50% of GDP contributed by Agriculture. Only 5-10% of GDP contributed by Agriculture, Over 50% of GDP contributed by Engineering Goods, Electronics, etc.

2000 :

12

Korea: A Direct Correlation Between Technical Manpower and Exports

1960
Higher Education Enrollment

1970

1980

1990

2001

5%

8.7%

16%

37.7%

68%

Exports US$ (Millions)

32

660

17,21 63,212 150,439

10

Last two hundred years: One key lesson:

It is possible for countries to catch up (eg. East Asian Tigers, China etc.)

Chinas Strategy---the Five Pillars

a) Massive Human Resource Development b) Highest priority to Science & Technology

c) Promotion of Hi-Tech Industries

d) Emphasis on Value-added Agriculture e) Self-reliance in Defense Manufacturing

21st Century is further characterized by two main ideas:

Based upon Globalization and the Death of Physical Distance
Manufacturing can be done anywhere Designing can be done anywhere

INVESTMENT WILL FLOW INTO A COUNTRY ONLY IF IT HAS: o Manpower with the right skills and productivity
o Infrastructure

o Stable law and order

4

In the new century, innovations in science and technology will be key not only to health of the environment but to miraculous improvements in the quality of our lives and advances in the economy.
PRESIDENT OF USA State of the Union Address, Jan 27, 2000 .The

three top priorities of my government areEDUCATION, EDUCATION & EDUCATION..

Tony Blair Policy Announcement 2000

Impact of just one institution----MIT

MIT graduates and faculty have founded 4000 companies Employ: 1.1 million people Annual Sales: $232 billion GDP contribution: $116 billion Collectively these companies are the 24th largest economy in the World!

 Requirements for sustained equitable development

Human capital manifested in knowledge and skills

Innovation and entrepreneurship

Macro-economic stability
Strong public institutions

Imperatives for Socio-Economic Development

Central Role of Higher Education/ Linkages Between Applied Research Technology Development & Industrial Development In National Plans-Govt.Facilitating Policies

VISION!!!!

Socio-Economic Development
Budgetary Allocations (Min.2% of GNP)The-catch-up game! Quality /Relevance Of Education/Research STANDARDS!!

Global plantings of biotech crops increased by 12 percent in 2002

70 60

Global Area of GM Crops

58.7 52.6 44.2 39.9

Million Hectares

50 40 30

27.8
20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1.7

11

Source: International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications

Products on the market

25

World Engineering Sector

World Markets, 2004 US$ (B) 1,500 630 600 186

Engineering Goods

Electronics / Home Appliances / Components Pharmaceutical / chemicals Automotive Industry Contract Manufacturing / Outsourcing

Ceramics
Surgical /Electro Medical Instruments

83
30

Fan Industry

2.6

63% of world trade is in manufactured goods, and electronics has major share of it.

39

WORLD ELECTRONICS: Shift in Markets / Production by Region & Sector

World Markets:
2004: 2006-07: US$ 1500 b; (~90% in N. Amer, EU, Japan) US$ 1900 b: Their share will fall to ~70%

Major Share: Consumer Electronics, Computers, Telecoms. SHIFT TO CHINA ~22% of world production in 2004

Major Opportunities:
Contract Manufacturing: US$ 186 b (2004), US$ 500 b (2010). ICTs: ~US$ 130B worldwide Electronics / Chip Design : US$ 90 b in 2004 Software development :US$ 1300 by 2006 Electronics Services ( call centres, digital archiving)
41

Pakistan---A Promising Program

S&T Budget increased 6000%!!! Higher Education budget increased 1,200%!!! Full support from President of Pakistan A real beginning after 50 years of lip service

Overarching Approach
Simultaneous Bi-Modal Approach Required Bottom-Up
Basic Health, Primary Education, Water .

Top-Down
Higher Education Technology Development Industrial Linkages

S&T PROGRAMMES
Basic Sciences (physics, maths, chemistry, biology) Applied Sciences (Engineering, Information Technology, Biotechnology, Material Sciences, Energy etc.) Entrepreneurship/Innovation Industrial Parks/Technology Incubators

HEC Plan of Action

ACCESS / QUALITY / RELEVANCE

Faculty Development Infrastructure (Free Access to Literature Free Access to Sophisticated Instruments, Technology Assisted Learning) Focused Support in Key Areas Linkages to the Economy Quality Assurance

400 Cities on Going to 600 Optical Fibre up cities and Towns from 40, two years in the next 12 ago
2002

China

Afghanistan

Iran

months

SDH/PDH (525/622 Mb/s) backbone being upgraded to DWDM

India

10 Gb/s

822 cities on the Internet

August 14, 2000 29 Cities

FASTEST INTERNET SPREAD!!

Oct 2003: 1600 locations 97% Population Access to the Internet 97% of the population UNCTAD report 2003

>35% ahead of regional countries!!

UNCTAD Report 2003

Information & Communications Technology development Index
Connectivity Access Policy ICT Diffusion

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

America United Kingdom Japan Korea

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

Malaysia Pakistan India Bangladesh

Bandwidth Available
August 2000: 32 Mb/s Mar 2002: 265 Mb/s Oct 2003: 600 Mb/s

Operative Data bandwidth 300 250 200 150 100 50 6 7 8 9 0 96 97 98 99 00 01 1 l -9 l -9 l -9 l -9 l -0 nnnnnnl -0 Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju Ju n02

Mb/s

Operative Data bandwidth

today Start point

Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja Ja

Ja

Plummeting costs.
June 2000: US$ 87,000/E1 August 2001: US$ 6,000 October 2004 : US$ 3,800 Aiming for US$ 2,500/2 Mb/s IP!
Cost /E1 100,000 80,000
US $

Start point Today

Cost /E1

60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 1 0 0 0 -0 -0 -0 1 -0 M ar Ju l-0 -0 Se p -0 M ay Ja n M ay No v M ar -0 1

Internet user growth

June 2000: 130,000 Oct 2004: 6,800,000
Internet users 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 -

Actual users more than 6 Million! Dial up

Internet users

Start point Today

Ja 5 n9 Ja 6 n9 Ja 7 n9 Ja 8 n9 Ja 9 n0 Ja 0 n01 Ja n02

Ja n

-9

Cellular explosion
Jan 2001: 225,000 Oct 2004: 3, 550,000
Cellular Users

Cellular Users

Multiplied 500% in the last 18 months as compared to the whole of the last 11 years
1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000
Cellular Users

800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 -

Start point Today

CPP
Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02

Paksat 1
Ku Band

C-Band

PAKSAT 1 A major opportunity

PAKSAT 1 A MAJOR COMMUNICATIONS SATELLITE WITH 34 TRANSPONDERS CAPABLE OF CARRYING 250 TV CHANNELS!!( 4 New TV Channels for Education!) BACKBONE FOR PERN (Pakistan Educational Researh Network)

INCENTIVES TO SCIENTISTS/ACADEMICS
RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY ALLOWANCE (National Ranking System Introduced) TENURE TRACK SYSTEM (salaries 4 times that of government ministers !) MASSIVE RESEARCH FUNDING (upto Usd 100,000 per project, USD 600,000 per international linkage program) 50%REDUCTION OF INCOME TAX

Faculty Development
Develop a strong base of Ph.D. level highly qualified faculty
Indigenous Scholarship Program (200 to 1500/yr.) Foreign Faculty Hiring---reversing the brain drain! (249 have returned---others coming!) Foreign Ph.D. Scholarship Program (sending 15,000 students for Ph.D. level training Contractual tenure track system---international assessment

Creating the Environment!

Free access to 17,000 full text international journals Free access to sophisticated instrumentation Centralized instrumentation facilities Availability of trained technicians Scholarships to students---admissions on merit and merit alone!

PERN ---Applications
Digital Library Access to Information Virtual University Satellite Internet Delivery Remote Lecture Program University Information Management System

Results
44% Increase in ISI abstracted publications----rate of increase highest in Islamic world Young men and women have started opting to adopt careers in S&T subjects as first choice Landscape of Universities has begun to change

Keys to Success
Courage to dream great dreams and hard work/tenacity to transform them in to reality Identifying and grooming the brightest manpower ---merit based system Focusing on cutting edge technologies in market oriented disciplines Moving fast! but--- sense of urgency must be combined with striving for perfection Optimism ---Taking failures as challenges Focus----Focus-----Focus !!

Immediate Actions by International Community

1) Promote Centers of Excellence in Developing Countries 2) Promote an International Linkage Program ---linking institutions in developing countries with those in the West----80:20 contributions!! 3) Set aside significant portion of Development Assistance for a massive scholarship program

Immediate Actions by International Community (contd)

Provide Access to International Journals/Data Bases as part of Developmental assistance (or as policy eg.HINARI) Promote Distance Learning Promote free access to international lectures/lecture materials ( MIT Open Courseware ) to be replicated Subsidize publishers for selling cheap text books in developing countries

International Comments
Editorial in Nature ----29th January 2004:
Rahman has convinced Musharraf and a deluge of money and new initiatives has poured out. Ministry of Science a n d T e c h n o l o g y s a n n u a l b u d g e t h a s i n c r e a s e d 6 0 f o l d compared with 1999; researchers have an opportunity to more tha n do ub le th e ir earn ings i f they pub lis h mor e in pe er reviewed journals; funds have been released for many more Ph.Ds. to be trained at home and abroad; plans are well under way for a free digital library for all educational institutions; there is a new scheme to attract researchers from overseas to work in Pakistan---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you