POWER

SHORTAGE
&
DISEMPOWERIN
G SOLUTIONS
Wilson M. Fortaleza
Freedom From Debt Coalition
June 23, 2009, Davao City

A FORUM ON THE DCWD-HEDCOR ISSUE

BATTLE OVER THE PANIGAN-TAMUGAN
RIVERS OF DAVAO CITY
FDC frameworks
On Power
 The power industry, due to its inherent
nature, should be placed at the realm of
public domain and its products and services
remain as public goods.

 The principle strongly pursues the

progressive role of the State – that it cannot
and should not consign the industry entirely
to private hands and let the market
determine what is good for the public.

 FDC is also for a power shift – from dirty

to clean and renewable power
FDC frameworks
On Water

 Upholding the people’s right

to water

 Water, the same with power,

are public goods that should
remain in public domain
Power Situation
As of Dec. 2007

 Installed generating capacity is

15,937 MW

 Dependable capacity is 13,205

MW

Source: DOE
Power Situation
PEAK DEMAND

Source: PDP-DOE
Power Situation
ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Source: PDP-DOE
Power Situation
GRID CONSUMPTION

Source: PDP-DOE
Power Sales

7,890
GWh

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Demand forecast
Grid 2 2 2 2009 2010
006 007 008
Luzon 6,72 6,98 7,25 7,552 7,878
8 1 2
Visayas 1,15 1,21 1,28 1,364 1,448
4 4 9
Mindanao 1,29 1,36 1,44 1,525 1,620
3 3 0
PHILIPPI 9,17 9,55 9,98 10,44 10,94
NES 5 8 1 1 6

Source: Transmission Development Plan,

Demand forecast
(Mindanao)

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

How is demand
projected?
 Historically, government’s demand
projection is poor (Top to bottom approach).
Poor planning is also a factor.

 DOE makes use of an aggregation of the

demand projection from the Distribution
Development Plans(DDPs) from distribution
utilities plus projections from directly-
connected non-utilities.

 TransCo’s forecast is based on

econometric modeling with Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) as main explanatory variable.
Supply-Demand
forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Supply-Demand
forecast
 Demand projection is always on
the “High Demand Case”

 Both cases show a radical decline

in the demand forecast for Luzon,
owing to the very low projection of
the Meralco, which demand covers
around 70% of the aggregate demand
in the Luzon grid.

Source: Transmission Development Plan,

2007
Supply-Demand
forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Supply-Demand
forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Supply-Demand
forecast

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

Dependable Capacity in
Mindanao

Source: DOE Power Development Plan,

“Teetering” into
recession

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009

Sharp Fall
GDP AND GNP (in million PhP)

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009

All industry
performance
GDP by industry origin (in million PhP)

SOURCE: NSCB MAY 2009

The cost of wrong
projections
 Consumers are made to pay the
full cost of installed capacities
whether they are consumed or not, or
even those that were not generated
at all.

 We also pay for all the risks

 The case of the IPP contracts

which we were made to pay through
the PPA.
The Mindanao Grid

Source: Transmission Development Plan,

The Mindanao Grid
 In TransCos CAPEX Program approved by
the ERC, the program is mainly driven by
load growth .

 Of the estimated P56.23-B, 82% or P46-B

are for projects necessary to meet load
growth within the planning horizon. (40% for
Luzon, 28% for Visayas, and 32% for
Mindanao.

 For the projects for implementation,

however, Capex driven by load growth is not
as high as the ongoing projects as it
accounts for only 58%.
Source: Transmission Development Plan,
 In Mindanao, all of the projects
2007 for
“Dropped” inter-connection
project

Source: Transmission Development Plan,

2007
TransCo’s ongoing
projects in the Mindanao
Grid
 Abaga-Kirahon 230 kV Transmission Line to
provide additional transmission corridor to the
676.4 MW Agus Hydro Complex which accounts
for 70% of total dependable capacity for the
Mindanao Grid. The Agus 2-Kibawe and Abaga-
Togoloan 138 kV lines serve as Agus’ link to the
grid.

 The bombing of Agus 2-Kibawe line resulted in

huge power swing to the other corridor. The
Abaga-Togoloan line will not be able to carry
70% of the 90% load as a result of the Agus 2-
Kibawe outage.

 The project is expected to be completed June

Source: Transmission Development Plan,
2008 and would serve as initial step in
Power planning/Plant
Sitting
 Choosing as site for a new power
plant is an important part of electric
system planning. There are plants that
are site-specific such as hydro,
geothermal, wind among others.

 Social-acceptability must also be

considered.
War over water

"The wars of the

next century
will be about
water."
Ismail Serageldin,
Vice president of the World
Bank
Water for ALL
 Power can be
produced from many
sources

 Although the globe

is made up mainly of
water, potable water
is not a finite
resources.
 Global consumption
 Available of water is doubling
freshwater amounts every 20 years, more
to less than one-half than twice the rate of
of 1 percent of all the human population
water on earth. The growth.
Making a choice
Why make us choose between a dark
and waterless future when the answer is
obviously clear:

Nobody desires such

kind of world!
Is there a win-win
solution?

“Kung ayaw may

dahilan,
Kung gusto maraming
paraan”
A proposal for a Multi-
Stakeholders
Development
Planning Process
 Panay Case (Separate
Presentation)

 Naga Case (Participatory

Planning)
Thank You!

End of presentation