Variations in Earths average surface temperature, over the past 20,000 years

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Warmest 12 years:

Source: IPPC, 2007

Gases

How it is generated ?

Global warming potential value

Atmospheric lifetime

Carbon dioxide (CO2)

A naturally occurring gas released as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, selected industrial processes and changes in the patterns of land-use, particularly deforestation. In terms of gross volume of emissions, it is by far the most important greenhouse gas. A gas released in coal mining, landfill operations, livestock raising and natural gas/oil drilling (among other processes) and human waste.

200-10,000 years

Methane (CH4)

21 (21 times 12 years more potent in terms of global warming effect than CO2) 120 years

Nitrous oxide (N2O)

A gas emitted during fertilizer 310 manufacturing and fossil fuel combustion.

Gases

How it is generated?

Global warming Atmospheric potential value lifetime

HFC-23, HFC-12, 260 years HFC-134a and HFC 152a have global warming potential of 11700 PFCs global warming 45 years potential ranges from 6.500 for CF4 to 9,200 for C2F6

Hydrofluorocarb ons (HFCs)

A group of gasses emitted in selected manufacturing processes and frequently used in refriger-ation and air conditioning equipment.

Perfluorocarbons Similar to HFCs, PFCs were (PFCs) developed and introduced as an alternative to ozone depleting CFCs and HFCs. They are emitted in a variety of manufacturing processes. Sulphur hexofluoride (SF) The most potent greenhouse gas, released in a very limited number of manufacturing processes where it is used as a dielectric fluid.

Global warming 3,200 years potential of SF6 is equal to 23,900. SF6 represent the most dangerous group of anthropogenicinduced greenhouse gas emissions

Examples of greenhouse gases that are affected by human activities

CO2 Carbon dioxide Pre-industrial concentration Concentratio n in 1998 ~280 ppm 365 ppm CH4 Methane N2O Nitrous oxide CFC-11 Chloroflu orocarbon -11 Zero HFC-23 CF4 Hydroflu Perfluoro orocarb methane on-23 Zero 40 ppt

~700 ppb ~270 ppb 1745 ppb 314 ppb

268 ppt

14 ppt

80 ppt

Rate of concentration change

1.5 ppm per yr

7.0 ppb per yr

0.8 ppb per yr

~1.4 ppt per yr

0.55 ppt per yr

1.0 ppt per yr

Source: IPCC

Rising Impacts of Global Warming

Extinction of more than 40% of known species ; Global economic losses of up to 5% GDP ; Partial melting of Green land and W. Antarctica Ice sheets ; Eventually raising sea-level 1.3-2 feet.

+50c

2080s

+40c +30c +20c +10c

2050s 2020s

Substantial burden on health services; Global food production decreases; About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost.
Major changes in natural systems cause predominantly negative consequences for biodiversity, water and food supplies. Widespread coral mortality. Millions more people face flooding risk every year. Increased risk of extinction for 20-30% of known species. Most corals bleached. Increasing mortality from heat waves, floods and droughts Decreasing water availability ; Increasing drought in many regions ; Increasing wildfire risk ; Increased flood and storm damage ; Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases

2007
Current Warming

Over 1980-1999 Temperature levels

CO2 (deforestation, decay of biomass, etc), 17.3%

CO2 (other), 2.8%

CH4 14.3%

CO2 fossil fuel use, 56.6%

N2O, 7.9% F-gases, 1.1% Global anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions in 2004

Who is responsible for global warming?

Developed countries have had a head start on developing countries in the industrialisation process. They have been emitting carbon dioxide in the Earths atmosphere for years before developing countries, at the time when the harmful effects of these emissions were not known, and hence there were no restrictions on emissions. This is because of the energy intensive lifestyles of industrialised countries. Many of the uses of energy in the richer countries are for purposes of luxury, and the emissions caused from such uses may be termed luxury emissions. But the lower per capita emissions of developing countries are because a large number of poor people do not even have access to basic amenities such as electricity. They will need their share of ecological space to increase what could be termed survival emissions. Citizens of richer countries will have to decrease their per capita emissions in order to allow these poor people to increase theirs, and to allow them to improve their living standards.

Pathways by which climate change affects human health

Modulating influences
Health effects
Temperature-related illness and death Extreme weatherrelated health effects Air pollution-related health effects Water and foodborne diseases Vector-borne and rodent-borne diseases Effects of food and water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious and other health effects

Regional weather changes Heatwaves Extreme weather

CLIMATE CHANGE

Microbial contamination pathways Transmission dynamics Agro ecosystems, hydrology

Temperature Precipitation
Socioeconomics, demographics

Overview of the health effects of climate change

Expected impacts are mainly for changes in frequency or severity of familiar health risks
1. 2. Temperature-related illness and death Extreme weather- related health effects

CLIMATE CHANGE

3.
4. 5. 6.

Air pollution-related health effects

Water and food-borne diseases Vector-borne and rodent- borne diseases Effects of food and water shortages

7.
8.

Psycho-social impacts on displaced populations

Health impacts from conflicts over access to vital resources

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Health Burdens

Following diseases will rise
Vector borne diseases Diarrhoea Malnutrition Respiratory diseases Cardiovascular disease

Stress related problems also will rise

Year-wise ADD cases (1996-2005)

12000000 10000000

1051 0476 9130 608 8065 688 9634 787 8215 296 8812 925 9239 783 9441 456 9575 112 7915 099

No. of Cases

8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Year-wise Cholera cases (1996-2005)

5000 4500 4000 4425 4178 3839 3554 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 3173 2893 3879 3455 3154 4728

No. of Cases

3500

Year

Year-wise Viral Hepatitis cases (1996-2005)

250000

200000
203939

No. of Cases

150000
152713 131808 133594 113527 131798 146047 151287 135859 134938

100000

50000

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Year-wise Entric Fever cases (1996-2005)

700000
658301 596684

600000

500000
512557

No. of Cases

463578

482863

488033

400000
379304

300000
279438 269455

318510

200000

100000

0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Dengue Endemicity Map in India

Endemic districts - 180 in 18 States/UTs) Population: 450 million 2006: 12317 Cases , 184 Deaths

Dengue/Dengue Haemaorrhagic Fever (DHF) Cases and Deaths in India

Cases 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 cases deaths 1996 1997 1998 707 18 1999 944 17 2000 650 7 2001 3306 53 cases 2002 2003 2004 2005 Deaths 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006

16517 1177 545 36

1926 12754 4153 11928 12317 33 deaths 215 45 156 184

2005
2006

Cases: 11985, Deaths : 157

Cases : 12317, Deaths : 184

CHIKUNGUNYA FEVER 2006

Affected districts: 188, Suspected Cases 1.39 million Confirmed Cases 1985 out of 15504 tested (12.8%)

Current Burden of ClimateSensitive Health Outcomes

Temperature > 500 C in Western India in 1994. Malaria epidemic in Surat following heavy rainfall in same year. Mumbai in Maharashtra experienced 944 mms of rainfall on July 26 and 27,2005; > 1,000 deaths In 2006, Surat (Gujarat), Barmer ( Rajasthan) and even Srinagar experienced serious floods during monsoon. Consecutive droughts between 2000 and 2002 in Orissa affected 11 million people Deaths due to heatstroke & cold reported every year

Health: An Overview
(a)
W D R A H R A W D L A H I N A J A H S R U P N A H

(b)

H L A D A B

P A N O S R U

Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080
TW Open for months 4-6 7-9
IO N R A C R A B

A D E H K

K U O R A L E

TW Open for months

L D N A M A

4-6
N E H C I A

7-9
IO N R A C R A B

10-12 N.A

10-12 N.A

Malaria may penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas.

10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000

Per-capita water availability in India

1947 2000
2017

5150 Cu.m 2200 Cu.m

1600 Cu.m

Aggregate annual utilizable water in India: 1100 billion Cu.m Estimated water demand in India in 2025: 1013 billion Cu. m

1. ENVIRONMENTAL SANITATION & HEALTH

HEALTH is defined as: A state of complete physical, social and mental wellbeing, and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity. In this sense, health is seen as a resource for everyday life, as a positive concept that emphasises social and personal resources as well as physical capabilities.
(World Health Organization, 1948)

Main Determinants of Health

SOURCE: Dahlgren, G. & Whitehead, M. 1991

Linkages between Sanitation & Health

Diarrhoeal disease alone amount to an estimated 4.1 % of the total DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) Global Burden of Disease (WHO, 2004). 1.8 million diarrhoeal deaths each year (90% of them among children < 5 years of age). Lack of attendance in schools (esp. girls) performance negatively impacted. Child and Maternal health adversely affected.

Linkages between Sanitation & Health contd...

Studies conducted by Dr. Feachem indicating relative importance of alternative preventive strategies concerning water supply, sanitation and health education revealed that health impact of supplying clean water alone is limited. However carefully designed programmes which combine water quality with improvements in water availability, safe disposal of human waste and hygiene education have the potential to be successful. The All India Institute of Hygiene and Public Health, Kolkata, in another study observed that the mortality and morbidity rates were higher in villages with only tubewell water supply facility than at places where only pour-flush waterseal toilets had been provided. The best results were found where both the facilities were available. The worst where none existed.

 More Than 150 Years of Medical Marvels: Sanitation Voted the Greatest Advance Since 1840.

Sanitation a Top Medical Milestone

That's exactly the challenge the prestigious British Medical Journal posed to a small group of experts and the many thousands of their readers, mostly doctors. Well, almost exactly. They actually were looking for the greatest medical advance of the past 167 years, back to 1840, the year the journal was founded.
In light of the truly staggering medical breakthroughs and scientific advances of the past 150 years, I think the final outcome of the contest will shock you. The ultimate winner? Sanitation! Sanitation received 1,795 votes. Antibiotics was a close second with 1,642 votes and anesthesia took third.

FACT: Access to Sanitation Provision

Population without improved sanitation, (region wise) in 2008 (millions) UNICEF-WHO JMP 2010 Update

Globally over 2.6 billion people lack basic sanitation worldwide of which 650 million people reside in India.

Clean Development Mechanism

Clean Development Mechanism is designed to stimulate emission reductions in the developing countries, while also promoting sustainable development. The projects must qualify through a rigorous and public registration and issuance process. Approval is given by the Designated National Authorities.

The mechanism is overseen by the CDM Executive Board, answerable ultimately to the countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Since 2006, the mechanism has already registered more than 1000 projects and is anticipated to produce CERs amounting to more than 2.7 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2008-2012.

CDM- How it works?

The primary purpose of CDM mechanism is to allow industrialised countries to buy cheap reductions from developing countries. Let us say that India decided to invest in a new power station, and has decided on a particular technology at the cost of X crore. An entity from an industrialised country (which could even be a company) offers to provide India with slightly better technology, which costs more (say Y crore), but will result in lower emissions. The industrialised country will only pay the incremental cost of the project-viz. Y minus X. In return, the investing country will get certified emission reductions (CERs), or credits, which it can use to meet its Kyoto commitments. This is a very good deal indeed- but for the investing country. Not only do they sell developing countries their technology, but they also meet their Kyoto commitments without lifting a finger to reduce their domestic emissions. Countries like the US can continue to pollute at home, so long as it makes the reductions elsewhere.

Do developing countries like India stand to gain from the CDM? Though the mechanism recognises and the right of developed countries to emit more GHGs, and hence their right to a higher standard of living than people in poor countries, the developing countries, like India, get benefited by this mechanism as well. Apart from industries and transportation the major sources of GHGs emission in India are paddy fields, enteric fermentation from cattle and buffaloes and municipal solid waste.

The project can be executed using a Public-Private Partnership approach in which both the parties can invest and share the benefits. Investment and operating cost is recovered through sale of CERs, gaining annual CER for the country.

CDM Projects in India

Indias CDM potential represents a significant component of the golbal CDM market. As on 17 March 2009, out of 1455 projects registered with CDM Executive Board, 398 are from India and 453 are from China. The National CDM Authority in India has accorded Host Country Approval to 1226 projects costing Rs.151,397 crores. These projects are in the sectors of energy efficiency, fuel swithing, industrial processes, municipal solid waste and energy efficiency. If all of them get registered with CDM Executive Board, they have a potential to generate 573 million Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) by 2012. At a conservative estimate of US$10 per CER, this means a revenue of US$5.73 billion to the country.

3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge

1. Is related to economic growth. No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet) 2. Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space. 3. Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.

Conclusions
Climate change is real, accelerating and it threatens all of us Diverse, global and probably irreversible over human time scales Health impacts are potentially huge and threaten public health security The risks are inequitable; GHG are emitted by developed countries but the health risks are concentrated in poor countries which have contributed least. These countries will suffer earliest and most. What we do now may not have major impact in next 4050 years. But our efforts in next 10-20 years can have a profound effect on climate in second half of century A gift to the next generations