Basic concepts

 Itis an evolutionary process and has to

be managed.
 Plan develops as the technology
manager learns more about the plan
and process.
 Planning work shop is the laboratory for
developing the appropriate technique
Basic concepts

 Initial action includes writing down on

paper what was learned from literature
and seminars.
 Development of sound methods on basic
principles.
 Plans are analyzed, drafted and then
reviewed by the R&D staff.
 It is appropriate to involve non R&D staff
also.
Technology Transfer

 Itis an art rather than scientific discipline.

 No yardstick to gauge the successful
transfer of Technology.
 Time management is an important
element in this effort.
 Careful selection of new technology and
tools can substantially reduce its product
development cycle.
Technology Transfer

 Many companies have pooled resources

to support research consortia.
 A consortia avoids needless duplication
of efforts in isolated companies.
 Technology transfer can be improved by
the company’s conscious and integrated
commitment.
Technology Transfer - Stages

 Acknowledgment on the recipients

awareness, interest, and tracking of
technology.
 Transportation and delivery of the
originator’s technology to the recipients
lab.
 Confirmation of the recipients expertise
in and understanding of the originators
technology.
Technology Transfer - Stages

 The recipients evaluation of the

technology’s suitability for eventual
application by product development or
manufacturing.
 The recipient’s modification and
hardening of the technology to meet
anticipated needs of product
development and manufacturing.
 Demonstration and sales of the version
of the technology to a client.
Technology Transfer - Stages

 Adoption of technology by an end user,

who furnishes specific requirements.
 The technology support group’s
maintenance and modification of the
recipients product in respond to the end
user’s ongoing needs.
Technology Forecasting

 Deals with the characteristics of

technology, such as levels of technical
performance
 Examples like speed of a military aircraft,
the power in watts of a particular future
engine, the accuracy or precision of a
measuring instrument, the number of
transistors in a chip in the year 2015, etc.
 The forecast does not have to state how
these characteristics will be achieved.
Technology Forcasting

 Deals with only useful machines,

procedures or techniques.
 This is to exclude from the domain of
technological forecasting those
commodities, services or techniques
intended for luxury or amusement’
Technology Forecasting

 Rational Method
 Explicit Method
 Delphi Method
 Forecast by Analogy
 Growth Curves
 Extrapolation
 Normative Methods
• Relevance Trees
• Morphological Models
• Mission Flow Diagrams
Rational Method

 They can be taught and learned

 They can be described and explained
 They provide a procedure followable by
anyone who has absorbed the necessary
training, and in some cases
 These methods are even guaranteed to
produce the same forecast regardless of
who uses them
Explicit Method

 The virtue of the use of explicit methods

is that they can be reviewed by others
 It can be checked for consistency
 Furthermore, the forecast can be
reviewed at any subsequent time
Delphi Method

 It is a method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of

independent experts over two or more rounds
 Experts are asked to predict quantities. After each round,
an administrator provides an anonymous summary of the
experts’ forecasts and their reasons for them
 When experts’ forecasts have changed little between
rounds, the process is stopped and the final round
forecasts are combined by averaging.
 Delphi is based on well-researched principles and
provides forecasts that are more accurate than those
from unstructured groups
 The technique can be adapted for use in face-to-face
meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-
Estimate (ETE)
 Delphi has been widely used in business.