Planning Cities for Peak Oil and Climate Change

Local Futures, Resilient Cities
Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change
Urban resource consumption and waste disposal is widely seen as the root cause of many of the world's environmental problems.
Because so much damage has already been done to the world's ecosystems, and solutions need to be found to reverse it, we need to start resilient thinking rather than just sustainable urban development.
Resilience thinking for the 21st century is inevitable for generating
sustainable community and preserving the living environment.

Resilience is the ability of a system to respond to change without altering the structure and function of the system.
In the past decade concepts that capture the idea of how to future-proof our cities have arisen worldwide:
Smart cities, Liveable cities, Sustainable cities, Intelligent cities, Resilient cities, Eco cities, Eco districts.,
1. Local Future(s) : What future are we planning for?
2. Energy Transition: Climate Change vs. Peak Oil
3. Dynamic City = Sustainable + Resilient
What future are we planning for?
Global Oil Production
1960
1980
2000
2020
1960
1980
2000
2020
1960
1980
2000
2020
1960
1980
2000
2020
1960
1980
2000
2020
2. Energy Transition: Climate Change vs. Peak Oil
3. Dynamic City = Sustainable + Resilient
Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.
Only ~15% of strategies address oil depletion.
Many responses will contribute to a disastrous acceleration of climate change
* Gas to Coal Switching
* Coal to Liquids
* Tar Sands and Shale * Forest Removal for Biofuels
Many strategies do nothing to reduce oil dependence
* Emissions Trading * Atmospheric Carbon Capture * Forestry Based Offsets
Top Priority:
Strategies to Reduce Emissions and Oil Dependence
Top Priorities:
Transportation, Land Use, Goods Movement
(New Technologies and Local Alternatives)
2. Energy Transition = Climate Change + Peak Oil
3. Dynamic City: Sustainable + Resilient

a. Resilient Infrastructure Investments b. Resilient Communities (Through Transition Shocks)
Freight Truck Miles Peak Oil + Climate Change Scenario
180 160
140
VMT: % vs. 2005
DCP Depletion Model for Conventional Oil
120 100 80 60 40
Today
20
0 2005
Oil
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
180 160
140
VMT: % vs. 2005
Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel
120 100 80 60 40
Today
20
0 2005
Oil
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
180 160
140
VMT: % vs. 2005
120 100 80 60 40
Truck Electrification Efficiency
Bio-Fuels
Today
Non-Con Oil Oil

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20
0 2005
Freight Truck Miles
180 160
140
VMT: % vs. 2005
120 100 80 60 40
Bio-Fuels
Today
Non-Con Oil Oil

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20
0 2005
Total required road capacity for trucks
Freight Truck Miles
180 160
140
VMT: % vs. 2005
120 100 80 60 40
Bio-Fuels
Today
Non-Con Oil Oil

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20
0 2005
Peak Roads ?
Freight Truck Miles
180 160
140
VMT: % vs. 2005
120 100 80 60 40
Bio-Fuels
Today
Non-Con Oil Oil

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
20
0 2005
Scaling-Up Local
Highway Expansion = Likely Stranded Asset (...not a resilient investment)
2. Energy Transition = Climate Change + Peak Oil
3. Dynamic Cities = Sustainable + Resilient

a. Resilient Infrastructure Investments b. Resilient Communities (Through Transition Shocks)
(Billion Miles)
2,400
1,400
1984 1985 1987 1989 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009
3,400
Miles Traveled on US Roads 1984-2009
(Billion Miles)
1,400
1984 1985 1987 1989 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009
3,400
2,400
1. Price Spikes 2. Recession
(Billion Miles)
1,400
1984 1985 1987 1989 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009
3,400
2,400
1. Price Spikes 2. Recession

3,400
(Billion Miles)
2,400
1. Price Spikes 2. Recession 3. Shortages 4. Rationing
1,400
1984 1985 1987 1989 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009

3,400
(Billion Miles)
2,400
1. Price Spikes 2. Recession 3. Shortages 4. Rationing
Change at Scale
1,400
1984 1985 1987 1989 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2009
Incremental Change vs. Shock-Response
Incremental Change
-Climate Policy - Green Buildings - Smart Growth - Relocalization
Shock-Response
Resilient Cities & Transition Towns
Pilot Projects Transition Targets Resilient Infrastructure
Plans to rapidly scale up alternative solutions
Building Capacity for Positive Change
Using It
Resilient Vancouver Task Force
Reference Scenario: Oil Depletion Rates, Sea Level, Migration, Economy....
Current Policy: Addressing Emissions and Oil Dependence?

Stress Tests (Price, Shortage, Recession, Rationing) Capacity Building with Community Transition Groups
Local Futures, Resilient Cities

Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change

Planning Cities for Peak Oil and Climate Change

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Local Futures, Resilient Cities

Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change

Resilience thinking for the 21st century is inevitable for generating

sustainable community and preserving the living environment.

1. Local Future(s) : What future are we planning for?

2. Energy Transition: Climate Change vs. Peak Oil

3. Dynamic City = Sustainable + Resilient

What future are we planning for?

What future are we planning for?

What future are we planning for?

Global Oil Production

What future are we planning for?

Global Oil Production

What future are we planning for?

Global Oil Production

What future are we planning for?

Global Oil Production

What future are we planning for?

Global Oil Production

1. Local Future(s) : What future are we planning for?

2. Energy Transition: Climate Change vs. Peak Oil

3. Dynamic City = Sustainable + Resilient

Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.

Only ~15% of strategies address oil depletion.

Many responses will contribute to a disastrous acceleration of climate change

* Gas to Coal Switching

Many strategies do nothing to reduce oil dependence

* Emissions Trading * Atmospheric Carbon Capture * Forestry Based Offsets

1. Local Future(s) : What future are we planning for?

2. Energy Transition = Climate Change + Peak Oil

3. Dynamic City: Sustainable + Resilient

Freight Truck Miles Peak Oil + Climate Change Scenario

VMT: % vs. 2005

DCP Depletion Model for Conventional Oil

Freight Truck Miles Peak Oil + Climate Change Scenario

VMT: % vs. 2005

Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel

Freight Truck Miles Peak Oil + Climate Change Scenario

VMT: % vs. 2005

Truck Electrification Efficiency

Non-Con Oil Oil

Freight Truck Miles

VMT: % vs. 2005

Truck Electrification Efficiency

Non-Con Oil Oil

Total required road capacity for trucks

Freight Truck Miles

VMT: % vs. 2005

Truck Electrification Efficiency

Non-Con Oil Oil

Freight Truck Miles

VMT: % vs. 2005

Truck Electrification Efficiency

Non-Con Oil Oil

Highway Expansion = Likely Stranded Asset (...not a resilient investment)

1. Local Future(s) : What future are we planning for?

2. Energy Transition = Climate Change + Peak Oil

3. Dynamic Cities = Sustainable + Resilient

Miles Traveled on US Roads 1984-2009

Miles Traveled on US Roads 1984-2009

1. Price Spikes 2. Recession

Miles Traveled on US Roads 1984-2009