Problem Solving

Welcome
American Society for Quality Richmond Chapter

Richmond ,Virginia April 8, 2008
1
Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.
Session Objectives
1. Overview of Thinking Dimensions LLC and KEPNERandFOURIE methodology 2. Overview recent research in the filed of Problem Solving and Decision Making language for critical thinking 3. Demonstration of one of the Thinking Dimensions (Decision Making) via a case study
2
About Thinking Dimensions

Solutions
Corporate Strategy Operational Improvement Learning & Development
Approach
Bring proven decision making and thinking methodologies to assist clients battling growth, cost, productivity and innovation challenges Our collaborative strategy, process improvement and KEPNERandFOURIE Thinking Technologies guide the development of effective corporate strategies, operational improvements, innovation and L&D solutions
Used by some of the most wellknown companies world-wide
About KEPNERandFOURIE
Dr. Chuck Kepner
Developed by Dr. Chuck Kepner and Dr. Matthys Fourie

Recognized experts in design and consulting Integration of rational, creative and intuitive dimensions of thinking Application of divergent - convergent thinking skills Scaleable approaches to deal with different tiers of problems and complexity levels Action Plan Oriented Results Based
Dr. Matthys Fourie
4
An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes
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The fundamentals of KEPNERandFOURIE thinking

Quality Cost Timeliness Efficiency Growth Alignment
Actions that drive business results: Faster Cheaper Better

6
TD Processes Utilize Three Modes of Thinking to Maximize Adoption and Application
1. RATIONAL THINKING
Uses information from direct observation and information that has been gathered from reliable sources considered most reliable and valid
2. INTUITIVE THINKING
What a person has seen and experienced over the years
3. CREATIVE THINKING
Putting known elements together to form new ideas and visions
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PUZZLE Exercise
Key Learning from the Puzzle Exercise

Thinking is a process
Everybody is an expert
Appreciation of the differences
9
TDs Approach to ThinkingWorks

Inputs
Information Data Knowledge Experience Facts
Creative
Process
What first?
Output
Business Results Clarified Situations Prioritized Issues Problems Solved Decisions Made Plans Protected
Gather What do we mean by? Sort

Rational
Intuitive
Organize Why? Analyze What now? Confirm

What if?
Quality
Quality
Quality
Questioning is key Makes your Thinking Visible Provides a Consistent Common Language
10
Copyright 2007 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.
The Context and Practical Intent to Make Them Work in Organizations
11
Paul Nutts Research

100%
Ohio State University 356 Corporate American Decisions 228 implemented Only 90 still in force after 2 years
80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
356
Decisions
228
90
2 years
Implement
Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt
12
Decisions by decree
100%
271 Decisions taken by decree Only 143 (53%) implemented Only 10 (7% of 143) successful
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
271
Decree
143
Implem't
10
Success
13
Decisions through participation

85 decisions made through participation
100% 80% 60%
All 85 were implemented
80 (93%) seen as successful 40% after 2 years.

20% 0%
85
Part'ion
85
Implem't
80
Success
14
Three blunders
Rush to judgment Pressure from the top Take first solution being presented Failure is 4 times more likely Misuse of resources (Spending time and money on the wrong things) Not exploring the reasons or background to the decision situation No stakeholder analysis vested interest Not finding an all-inclusive answer Failure to use any decision process methodologies Poor collaboration and/or participation Using an incomplete process Using power and/or persuasion Will take too long
15
Consensus Decision Making
Nature is to compare alternatives against each other Recipe for disaster First sort out the purpose Then get the requirements Compare alternatives to requirements
Requirements
16
SolutionWise What Now?

Purpose: To find the best solution for a given situation
Steps:
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Types of Action That Are Decisions

Repairing: Immediate actions to reinstate something to its previous level of usefulness
Improving:
Looking beyond the immediate fix to make fixes less frequent by making things better
Innovating: Thinking creatively about cause and effect (the old way is not good enough)
Avoiding:
Thinking of how to get around the situation to remove or neutralize the cause
18
Step 1. State the Purpose

Why: How: To clarify the purpose of the decision Ask: What is the ultimate purpose of this decision? Why do you want to make this decision? or What outcome do you want to achieve? Be as specific and concise as possible
Rules:
Look at the concepts of:

Select Create
Develop
19
SolutionWise Demonstration Step 1: State the Purpose

Purpose Statement: Increase market share
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Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Why: How: To create a sound evaluation basis to find the best solution 1. List stakeholders and all the solution requirements (wish list) 2. Crystallize and/or consolidate the important requirements. Ask: What are the key requirements for this solution? 3. Write each solution requirement as an objective to be achieved. 4. Consider different possibilities such as Repairing, Improving, Innovating, Avoiding, Short and Long Term Solutions Quantify requirements as far as possible Ensure that the ultimate purpose of the decision is reflected in the requirements.
21
Rules:
Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements List Stakeholders

Why: Involve Internal and External Stakeholders (the Individual/ Group/ Institution that will be influenced by or have an interest in the outcome(s) of the issue) to maximize collaboration and alignment of requirements Identify Stakeholders:
How:
Internal
Company Customers
External
Competitors Suppliers Influencers (activists, media, associations) Facilitators (Govt, Regulators, Licensing authorities)
22
Copyright 2007 Thinking Dimensions www.thinkingdimensions.com
SolutionWise Demonstration List Stakeholders

Bank Management
Employees
Marketing Vice-President Suppliers IT Division Head
23
Step 2. Listing Solution Requirements (Wish List)

Requirements to fulfill Problems/Symptoms to Remove
What main and secondary results do you want to achieve with this solution?
Risks to Avoid
What existing problems or symptoms do you want to remove?

Resources and Restrictions
In reaching your solution , what risks do you want to avoid?
What money, time and other resources are you permitted to spend, preserve and/or minimize? Any requirements out of your control? (e.g. time, money, legal, political)
Intuitive approach: List stakeholders, brainstorm requirements in general and then check whether all stakeholders were considered Analytical approach: List stakeholders, brainstorm all requirements for each individual stakeholder 24
SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Requirements to fulfill Problems/symptoms to remove
Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

customers Maximum impact on competition
Risks to avoid
Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

customers Poor communication with clients
Resources and restrictions
Short term effect only Higher level of complexity
5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation
25
Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Why: How: To create a sound evaluation basis to find the best solution 1. List stakeholders and all the solution requirements (wish list) 2. Crystallize and/or consolidate the important requirements. Ask: What are the key requirements for this solution? 3. Write each solution requirement as an objective to be achieved. 4. Consider different possibilities such as Repairing, Improving, Innovating, Avoiding, Short and Long Term Solutions Quantify requirements as far as possible Ensure that the ultimate purpose of the decision is reflected in the requirements.
26
Rules:

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 Increase market share by at least 2%
27



Risks to avoid
28

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years
29


Risks to avoid

30

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months
31


Risks to avoid

32

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 4 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients
33


Risks to avoid

34

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 4 5 6 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients Implementation costs not to exceed 80K Keep operations as simple as possible for employees
35


Risks to avoid

36

Purpose Statement: Increase market share List of Key Requirements 1 2 3 4 5 6 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients Implementation costs not to exceed 80K Keep operations as simple as possible for employees
37
Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives

Why: To identify the various ways to solve the situation and to evaluate them in terms of each solution requirement 1. Generate Alternatives using any of the following approaches: Combine certain alternatives Build alternatives based on different types of actions Consider short/long term implications/ requirements Use the stated purpose Refer to solution requirements Consider what if scenarios Consult external sources
38
How:
Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives

2. Evaluate Alternatives How: 1. Evaluate each alternative against each solution requirement. Ask: How does this alternative satisfy the specific requirement? 2. Write down how the alternative satisfies each solution requirement. 3. Identify the best performing elements for each alternative. Ask: Which alternative(s) satisfies the stated requirement the best? Involve all stakeholders. Reach agreement on every aspect of the evaluation.
39
Rules:
SolutionWise Demonstration Step 3: Evaluate Alternatives

Key Requirements
1 Increase market share by at least 2% Retain increased business for at least 3 years Implement the option within 5 months Maximum hassle free convenience to clients Implementation costs not to exceed 80K
Adverting
3.6%
Some will remember after initial period 5 months
Credit
2.4%
Lock-in for at least 2 years 7 months or longer
Direct
3.6%
Convenience will make them stay longer Within 2 months Learning how to do it
Contest
3%
Short burst only
3 months
No effect
None at all
No effect
65K
74.6K
54K
60K
Keep operations as simple as possible for employees
No effect
More of the same
More complicated
Minor effect 40
Step 4. Create a Solution

Why: How: To construct the best total solution for a decision METHOD ONE Consider the best performing elements of the various alternatives. Select actions that will meet the solution requirements the best. Create a solution by placing the actions in a logical sequence over a period of time METHOD TWO Select best performing alternative Improve its weak elements with ideas or features from competing alternatives Ensure that all weak areas are identified and addressed
41
Rule:
SolutionWise Demonstration Step 4: Create a Solution

1. Go for the Direct Telephone banking for limited access facilities and only advertise this service to targeted audiences.
2. Market and issue Credit Cards to existing client base. Couple this to an internal and external contest for suggesting a friend or family member to the banks credit card campaign.
42
An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes
43
CauseWise and L6S

Testimonial
KEPNERandFOURIE tools have helped us to substantially improve our project lead time by providing the missing link for us in resolving special cause problems by leveraging systematic critical thinking. These are the tools and methodologies that Black Belts and Green Belts cannot afford to go without.
Don Lynch, Master Black Belt, SKF USA
44
CauseWise and L6S

Testimonial
"The KEPNERandFOURIE RCA is a powerful process that helps us think through and resolve problems in a structured and visible manner. I strongly endorse this training. Significantly, it helps our Green and Black belts to implement their Lean Six Sigma initiatives." Doug Smith, MBB, Dean of NAVSEA College
45
CauseWise Why?
Purpose: To find the true cause(s) of a deviation
Steps:
46
Problem Definition
STANDARD DEVIATION
ACTUAL
Past
Now
Deviation of actual from standard
Cause unknown or unproven

Need to find cause
47
Poor Root Cause Practice
95% not having the correct people around the table Dealing with suspect information Average time to resolution is six (6) + months
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
Problem solved
48
B ud
ge t
Ineffective vs. effective decision making meetings
- Ineffective 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1st Qtr Purpose 2nd Qtr Requirements 3rd Qtr Alternatives 4th Qtr Risks 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1st Qtr Purpose
- Effective -
2nd Qtr Requirements
3rd Qtr Alternatives
4th Qtr Risks
49
Blame Fixing
Pitfall is looking for the people reason first First look for the technical reason True Cause Once verified, then look for the people reason Root Cause
Deviation
EVENT
True Cause
TECHNICAL
Root Cause
PEOPLE
50
Good Root Cause Practice

Using the correct stakeholders the first time
60 50
Dealing with accurate information

Average time to solve is 30 minutes to less than one (1) week
40 30 20 10 0 1st Day 1st Wk 1st Mth Later
# Solved
51
Questions/Comments
Thinking Dimensions LLC
4234 Upper Park Drive

Fairfax, Virginia 22030 (t) 703-865-6700
(f) 703-865-6701
billdunn@thinkingdimensions.com www.thinkingddimensions.com
52
Stop talking Bill, its over!
53
CauseWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Problem Detail
IS
1 Credit cards
BUT NOT
Savings cards
WHY (NOT)
New supplier More frequently used
Embossing flattened
Damaged strip Printing wrong
Dont know
Dealers All over country
Supplier Specific place only
Cards in use Dont know
55
IS
4 80% r/h/s 20% l/h/s
BUT NOT
Random or any specific place
WHY (NOT)
Half of the card every time Plastic wallet defect
10 days ago
Before/after
Dont know
56
IS
4 80% r/h/s 20% l/h/s
BUT NOT
WHY (NOT)
10 days ago
Before/after
Dont know
Continuous
Sporadic or periodic
Dont know
58
Question 7: Sequence of Events
Alternative Questions 1. When in the sequence of events of the object was the fault first noticed? 2. What was happening to the object in its sequence of events when the fault was first noticed? 3. When in the life cycle of the object was the fault first noticed? 4. Any other cycles?
Question to the void Technique 1. Identify in which phase of the objects life cycle the deviation occurred 2. Once you have identified the phases in the life cycle, it is often useful to identify when specifically in this phase did the deviation occur.
59
IS
4 80% r/h/s 20% l/h/s
BUT NOT
WHY (NOT)
10 days ago
Before/after
Dont know
Continuous
Sporadic or periodic
Dont know
6-11 months old
Before 6 months
Dont know
60
Step 3. Generate Causes

Why: To theorize possible causes of the problem in order to find the true cause To incorporate everyones gut feel and experience in how they think the problem could have been caused. To create a common understanding of the probable cause Look at each Why (Not) individually and/or collectively and ask: Looking at Why (Not) contributions, what would you say is causing the problem? and/or What do you think is causing the problem List a causal statement(s) that will logically explain how the deviation/fault could have occurred.
61
How:
Rule:
CauseWise Demonstration Step 3: Develop Possible Causes
1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines.
62
CauseWise Demonstration Step 3: Develop Possible Causes
1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines. 2.The plastic wallet reacts with the embossed letters of the card in some way, making it soft and causing it to go flat.
63
Step 4. Confirm True Cause - Testing

Why:
How:
To prove the true cause on paper

1. Determine how the cause proves the IS and the BUT NOT. Ask: If X is the true cause, how does it substantiate that we have a problem with the Is and not the BUT NOT?
2. Use a check technique
Rules:
Must explain both the IS and BUT NOT Test destructively Note all assumptions
64
CauseWise Demonstration Step 4: Confirm True Cause - Testing

1. The sub-standard plastic card embossed letters, supplied by the new supplier cannot withstand the pressure caused by the manual processing machines.
YES
YES
YES
NO
2.The plastic wallet reacts with the embossed letters of the card in some way, making it soft and causing it to go flat.
YES
YES
YES
A1
A2
YES
YES
A1: Only if some people put the card in the wallet the other way round A2: Only if the reaction takes up to 6 months to take effect
65

Problem Solving

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Welcome

American Society for Quality Richmond Chapter

About Thinking Dimensions

Used by some of the most wellknown companies world-wide

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Developed by Dr. Chuck Kepner and Dr. Matthys Fourie

Dr. Matthys Fourie

An Overview of the ThinkingWorks Processes

The fundamentals of KEPNERandFOURIE thinking

Actions that drive business results: Faster Cheaper Better

TD Processes Utilize Three Modes of Thinking to Maximize Adoption and Application

Key Learning from the Puzzle Exercise

TDs Approach to ThinkingWorks

Gather What do we mean by? Sort

Organize Why? Analyze What now? Confirm

The Context and Practical Intent to Make Them Work in Organizations

Paul Nutts Research

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Decisions through participation

All 85 were implemented

80 (93%) seen as successful 40% after 2 years.

Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University. Prof Paul Nutt

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

Consensus Decision Making

SolutionWise What Now?

Types of Action That Are Decisions

Step 1. State the Purpose

Look at the concepts of:

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 1: State the Purpose

Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements List Stakeholders

Copyright 2008 Thinking Dimensions/KEPNER AND FOURIE All Rights Reserved.

SolutionWise Demonstration List Stakeholders

Step 2. Listing Solution Requirements (Wish List)

What existing problems or symptoms do you want to remove?

In reaching your solution , what risks do you want to avoid?

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

Step 2. Clarify Solution Requirements

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

Resources and restrictions

Short term effect only Higher level of complexity

5 Months for implementation 80K for implementation

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

SolutionWise Demonstration Step 2: Clarify Solution Requirements

Increase market share by 2 % Maximum increase in new

Admin mistakes Long turnaround times with

Resources and restrictions