the flight mh370 & bayes theory

Masilamani Ramasamy - a scientific management expert

(misilamani@yahoo.com)

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MH370 tracking

Bayes' Theorem
also called, Bayes' law or Bayes' rule based on probability theory, mathematics and Statistics named after Thomas Bayes (/bez/ 17011761) Bayes suggested the theorem to update beliefs Significantly edited and updated by Richard Price Bayes' theorem is to the theory of probability what Pythagoras's theorem is to geometry -Harold Jeffreys

probability theory
rooted in,

the science of Statistics the science of Mathematics the probability of an event occurring the analysis of random phenomena

statistical theory
gives, ways of comparing statistical procedures a best possible procedure for statistical problems guidance on the choice between alternative procedures
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statistical theory
covers Statistical decision methods and problems Statistical inferences or conclusions actions and deductions
To satisfy the basic principles stated for these different approaches.
STATISTICS(FACTS)
Aircraft: Malaysian Air Lines Aircraft Age: 11years 10 months Aircraft Type: Boeing 777 ER Flight No: MH370(shared with China Southern Airlines) Passengers travelled: 227 Crew Travelled: 12 Nationalities: 14 Take Off Time: 12.41 am From: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia To: Beijing, China

Statistics
is the study of the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation and presentation of information or data all aspects of data including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments are used

mathematical roots
Two mathematical results of Bayes Theorem are, THE LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS, and THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

law of large numbers (LLN)

Is a theorem describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times thus the average of results obtained should be close to the expected value, and The result will tend to become closer to reality

central limit theorem (CLT)

the arithmetic mean of a sufficiently large number of iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined expected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed This will probably lead to a conclusion of the reality

normal distribution
suppose
sample contains a large number of observations, each observation being randomly generated, in a way that does not depend on the values of the other observations that the arithmetic average of the observed values is computed, and if this procedure is performed many times, then central limit theorem says the computed values of the average will be a normal distribution The normal distribution is commonly known as a "bell curve"

Bayes' theorem
is, a result that is of importance in the mathematical manipulation of conditional probabilities It is a result that derives from the more basic axioms of probability It is a result that can lead to realistic conclusions

Bayesian (or epistemological) interpretation

probability measures a degree of belief Bayes' theorem then links the degree of belief in a proposition before and after accounting for evidence. example, take a proposal that a biased coin is twice as likely to land heads than tails. Degree of belief in this might initially be 50%. The coin is then flipped a number of times to collect evidence. Belief may rise to 70% if the evidence supports the proposition

axioms of probability
probability is, a game of chance measures the real, physical tendency of something to occur Measures how strongly one believes it will occur draws on both these elements? interprets the probability values of probability theory to answer the above questions

real life probability

Event Or Occurrence Weather Car Accidents Customers at Mall State Lottery Plane Crash Student Grades Non-Random event Seasonal Change, Local Climate Safe or Unsafe Driving Practices Random Event Precipitation, Temperature on Specific Days Specific Cars or Conditions Met on the Road

Hours Open, Time of the Day Specific Pattern of Customer Arrival Decision About Games Available, Prices and Awards Ability of Flight Captains, Security Measures Amount of Time of study, Revision and Class Preparation Numbers Drawn or Winning Patterns on Tickets Plane Engine Failure, Terrorists Intrusion Appearance of Specific questions on Tests

the search

why MH370 flight missing?

Its loss is a mystery Many theories, probabilities and interpretations still remain Inconclusive, inadequate and intriguing Probably Bayes Theoretical approach would help Scientists tend to believe in this theory as a probable lead to discovery of the missing plane

the theory that would not die

Its a very short, simple equation that says you can start out with hypothesis about something and it doesnt matter how good the hypothesis is,
- Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

how
because of, this character of the formula forcing researchers to change their hypothesis with each new information that the probability becomes more accurate

the proof
Bayes Theorem allows the organisation of available data with associated uncertainties and computation of the PDF Scientists applied Bayes Theorem in the Air France incident of 2009 French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace, helped locate German U-boats during World War II and spot Soviet submarines during the Cold War More recently, it is used in Google's "driverless cars" project and in stock market predictions PDF or the probability distribution function, identified the target location given these data"

Why Not?
Advocates of this theory said it was also used in the search for the black box of the ill-fated Air France flight 447, which crashed in the vast Atlantic Ocean in June 2009 What took two years for other experts in the search for the black box, took only five days for consultants who applied the Bayes Theorem, to finally find the device 12,000 feet under water. In the current search for flight MH370, it is highly unlikely that Bayes Theorem is being applied.
Air France Accident summary
Date Summary Site 1 June 2009 Entered high altitude stall, impacted ocean Atlantic Ocean [1] near waypoint TASIL 30357N 303342WCoordinat es: 30357N 303342W 216 12 228 (all) 0 Air France F-GZCP Rio de JaneiroGaleo Airport Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport

Passengers Crew Fatalities Survivors Operator Registration Flight origin Destination

Aircraft type Airbus A330-203

Inconclusive Theories about MH 370

Sudden shut down of all flight systems Sabotage by suspects Hijackers on board Undesirable clients in the cockpit Deep dive into ocean bed Disgruntled or insane flight officer Ill equipped management and security systems Etc., etc., etc..

learn from experience

Bayes' Theorem, is all about learning from experience one would need "reasonably accurate past experiences" for the theorem to work in other words, to calculate accurately to locate the plane

find the plane

go find the plane, with science in your bag, enough of spiritual and emotional beliefs and traditional methods-masi

thanks
Malaysian government reports/statements Wikipedia.com Malaysiakini Radio/TV and the Media Photo Gallery Gayesian experts like Sharon Bertsch McGrayne