Population Growth

Biological experiments on the computer

Manil Suri Professor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore, MD 21250 www.manilsuri.com

Copyright Manil Suri 2009

Doubling (Exponential Growth)

Consider bacteria growing in a dish. Growth depends on factors like amount of food, temperature, size of dish, etc.

We want to find out how the population growth proceeds. Suppose first the number of bacteria doubles every hour

Say the population at hour 0 is 0.1 million, i.e. X0=0.1

Then, at hour 1, hour 2, hour 3, etc, we have: X1=0.2 X2=0.4 X3=0.8 X4=1.6 X5=3.2 X6=6.4

The rule is: X 2X The population grows very fast.

Doubling of Bacteria

IS THIS REALISTIC?

Limited space, limited food. We need a better model.

More Realistic Growth Model

Instead of

X 2X, we now modify this to X 2X (1-X).

What does this extra factor (1-X) do for us? As x becomes larger, this factor becomes smaller. It puts the brakes on growth.

Lets try it!

x 2x x 2x(1-x)

X0=0.1 X1=0.2 X2=0.4 X3=0.8 X4=1.6 X5=3.2 X6=6.4

X0=0.1000 X1=0.1800 X2=0.2952 X3=0.4161 X4=0.4859 X5=0.4996 X6=0.4999

What is happening to the population now?

Comparison of Growth

Lets continue on the computer

We will use link below for Nonlinear Web applet (can also find this by typing nonlinear web on Google first link that appears in list) (instructions follow)
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

CONTROLS

Slide Cursor to change to 2.0 in formula for F(x) (TRY IT ON WEB)

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

CONTROLS
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html Q: What are the two curves? Q: What is the intersection of the two curves?

Move your arrow around You will see this lower right box gives the x-value.

Now place the arrow so that the box reads x=0.1 Click.

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

Notice that this left box gives the value of x0, i.e. x0=0.1 (initial population)

The right box always gives the x-value of the location of your arrow. Now click Iterate box This gives the line segments shown Q: What is the point marked on the straight line?

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

What Next, the program is doing is calculating the click Iterate All. Click Iterate iterations for you. several times. The red what thered population finally Q: dot Canshows you see a tiny dot? Q: What pointsThe are answer markedis out on the ends up as being. 0.5. straight line? Now press the Del Trans button. Only the final answer, the red dot, should remain.

HOW PROGAM WORKS

Each time you click, the program calculates the population up to x200, i.e. it calculates 200 steps using the rule! It shows the first 25 steps in black, and the next 175 in red. In the previous case, all 175 steps landed in just one spot, at 0.5! The red tells us where the population will finally end up.

What if you start with a different initial population?

Try x0=0.2, 0.4, etc different values.

What if you start with x0 bigger than 0.5, for instance x0=0.9? Q: What is the final value of the population you get? Now, the population actually decreases, then goes again to 0.5
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

More Experiments
We have seen that the population always ends up at 0.5, no matter what it starts with. Let us now see what happens if we change the number 2 in the rule F(x)=2.0 x(1-x). This is the growth constant.

Slide Cursor to change 2.0 to 1.5 in formula for F(x) Growth Constant=1.5 Try this with different initial x0. Q: What is the final population?
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

Next, repeat with F(x)=2.5x(1-x). What is the final population now?

To summarize (Different Growth Constants): F(x)=1.5x(1-x) Final Population=0.33333 F(x)=2x(1-x) Final Population=0.5 F(x)=2.5x(1-x) Final Population=0.6
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

Experiments: Growth Rate < 1

Try growth rate=0.5, 0.7, 0.9. Q What is the final population? Q Why does this happen?
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

SUMMARY SO FAR
Let c be the growth constant. Our experiments so far have shown that: 1. If c<=1, then the population dies out. 2. If 1<c<=3, then population ends up at a final value given by the intersection of the two graphs For c=3, the population may go to this value very slowly (try it!)
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

The case c=3

Try different initial populations. Q: How does the size of the red box change? Click on the Del Trans button. What happens? (From now on, we will only be interested in the red part what happens after a long time.) Now try c=3.02. What do you see?

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

Experiments: Growth Rate c>3

Try it with c= 3.02, 3.12, 3.32.

Q: What is the population doing at c=3.32?

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

Boom and Bust Phenomena

When the growth constant becomes high enough, the population no longer settles at one value, but varies between two values. (A periodic orbit with period=2) Seen in crab populations, insect/bird populations, etc.

Growth Constant above 3.45

Try taking c=3.45, then 3.47, 3.50, 3.52. What do you observe?
A periodic orbit with period=4.

Now take c=3.54. What happens?

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

CHAOS
Taking the growth constant even higher, we get increasingly unpredictable behavior, until at c=4, there is complete chaos.

For what value of c between 3.5 and 4 does the picture suddenly clear up?

(You should see a value for which you suddenly get an L shape)

http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

CHAOS

Starting with two initial values very close to each other, the populations become quickly far apart.

This is why it is impossible to predict weather in the long term.

Other Experiments
You can try other population functions by changing logistic (upper left box) to quadratic or tent or doubling. These can be thought of as different growth rules.
http://math.bu.edu/DYSYS/applets/nonlinear-web.html

As shown in the video, the quadratic map gives rise to fractals and the Coverly Set. (Use link below to experiment)
http://www.ibiblio.org/e-notes/MSet/Anim/ManJuOrb.htm