Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Chapter Outline
Balance of Payments Accounts
The Current Account The Capital Account
External Balance and the Exchange Rate Balance of Payments Trends in Major Countries
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The IMF is the primary source of similar statistics worldwide Multinational businesses use various BOP measures to gauge the growth and health of specific types of trade or financial transactions by country and regions of the world against the 4-5 home country
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BOP
A surplus in the BOP implied that the demand for the countrys currency exceeded the supply and that the government should allow the currency value to increase or intervene and accumulate additional foreign currency reserves in the Official Reserves Account. A deficit in the BOP implied an excess supply of the countrys currency on world markets, and the government should then either devalue the currency or expend its official reserves to support its value.
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Balance of Payments
1. Current Account: a. Payments for merchandise and services
Import export = balance of trade
c. Transfer payments
Aid, grants, gifts
A large current account deficit indicates sending more cash abroad to buy goods and services or to pay income than receiving for those same reasons
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Balance of Payments
2. Capital Accounts
a. Value of financial assets transferred across country borders by people who move to a different country. b. Value of nonproduced nonfinancial assets that are transferred across country borders (patents and trademark)
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Balance of Payments
3. Financial Accounts a. Direct foreign investment (DFI) b. Portfolio investment
transaction of long-term financial assets such as stocks and bonds between countries that do not affect the transfer of control
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Other Investment Assets/Liabilities Consists of various short and long-term trade credits, cross-border loans, currency and bank deposits and other accounts receivable and payable related to cross-border trade
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THE BALANCE
The Balance on Goods (Balance on Trade) measures the balance on imports and exports of merchandise.
The Balance on Current Account expands the balance on goods to include receipts and expenses for services, income flows and unilateral transfers.
The Basic Balance measures all of the international transactions (current, capital and financial) that come about because of market forces. The Overall Balance (also called the Official Settlements Balance) is the total change in a countrys foreign exchange reserves caused by the basic balance plus any governmental action to influence foreign exchange reserves.
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Exhibit 2.2 Summary of U.S. Current Account in the Year 2006 (in billions of $)
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Do monetary and fiscal policies affect the exchange rates and BOP components?
Monetary Policy: An unanticipated shift to expansionary monetary policy will lead to more rapid economic growth, accelerated inflation and lower real interest rates BOP effects: Higher income and higher domestic prices stimulate imports and discourage exports. Lower real rates discourage foreign and domestic investment at home. Increase demand will encourage imports & discourage exports, which moves the current account towards deficit. Exchange rate effects: The adverse impact of the countrys current account will increase the supply of currency in the FX markets; causing the currency to depreciate.
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Exhibit 4.2 The United States Current Account, 1998-2005 (billions of U.S. dollars)
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Exhibit 4.3 U.S. Trade Balance and Balance on Services and Income, 1985-2005 (billions of U.S. dollars)
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Exhibit 4.4 The United States Financial Account and Components, 1998-2005 (billions of U.S. dollars)
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Exhibit 4.5 The United States Financial Account, 1985-2005 (billions of U.S. dollars)
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Exhibit 4.6 Current and Combined Financial/Capital Account Balances for the United Sates, 1992-2005 (billions of U.S. dollars)
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Exhibit 4.7 The United States Balance of Payments, Analytic Presentation, 1995-2005 (billions of U.S. dollars)
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Exhibit 4.7 The United States Balance of Payments, Analytic Presentation, 19952005 (billions of U.S. dollars) (cont.)
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Balance of Payments Interaction with Key Macroeconomic Variables In a static (accounting) sense, a nations GDP can be represented by the following equation:
GDP = C + I + G + X M
C I G X M = consumption spending = capital investment spending = government spending = exports of goods and services = imports of goods and services
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(X-M)
(CI - CO)
(FI - FO)
(FXB)
BOP
CI = capital inflows CO = capital outflows FI = financial inflows FO = financial outflows FXB = official monetary reserves
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Exhibit 4.8 Trade Balance Adjustment to Exchange Rate Changes: The J-Curve
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Capital Mobility
The degree to which capital moves freely cross-border is critically important to a countrys balance of payments Historical patterns of capital mobility
1860-1914 period characterized by continuously increasing capital openness as more countries adopted the gold standard and expanded international trade relations 1914-1945 period of global economic destruction due to two world wars and a global depression 1945-1971 Bretton Woods era, saw great expansion of international trade in goods and services 1971-2002 period characterized by floating exchange rates, economic volatility, but rapidly expanding cross-border capital flows
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Capital Flight
Five primary mechanisms exist by which capital may be moved from one country to another:
Transfers via the usual international payments mechanisms, regular bank transfers are easiest, cheapest and legal Transfer of physical currency by bearer (smuggling) is more costly, and for many countries illegal Transfer of cash into collectibles or precious metals, which are then transferred across borders Money laundering, the cross-border purchase of assets which are then managed in a way that hide the movement of money and its owners False invoicing on international trade transactions
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Current Account
Trade in goods: Debit: U.S. firm purchases German machine tools. Credit: Singapore Air Lines buys a Boeing jet. Trade in services: Debit: An American takes a cruise on a Dutch cruise line. Credit: The Brazilian tourist agency places an ad in The New York Times. Income payments and receipts: Debit: The U.S. subsidiary of a Taiwan computer manufacturer pays dividends to its parent. Credit: A British company pays the salary of its executive stationed in New York. Unilateral current transactions: Debit: The U.S.-based International Rescue Committee pays for an American working on the Afghan border. Credit: A Spanish company pays tuition for an employee to study for an MBA in the United States. 4-42
Examples:
Direct investment: Debit: Ford Motor Company builds a factory in Australia. Credit: Ford Motor Company sells its factory in Britain to British investors. Portfolio investment: Debit: An American buys shares of stock of a European food chain on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Credit: The government of Korea buys United States treasury bills to hold as part of its foreign exchange reserves. Other investment: Debit: A U.S. firm deposits $1 million in a bank balance in London. Credit: A U.S. firm generates an account receivable for exports to Canada.
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QUESTIONS ? ? ? ? ?
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