Chapter 1

Introduction to Demography

What is Demography?
The scientific study of human population Concerned with:
Population size Population growth or decline Population processes Population distribution Population structure Population characteristics

Fertility: Adding New People

In 2006, national fertility rates ranged from an average of 1.2 children per woman in the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine to 8.0 children per woman in the West African of Niger. The average for the world was 2.7. What are the variables that affect fertility?
fecundity, sexual unions, and birth control

Crude birth rate (CBR) is the number of live births in a year divided by the total midyear population General fertility rate (GFR): the total number of births in a year divided by the number of women in the childbearing ages Total fertility rates (TFRs): the average total number of children a woman will have Replacement-level fertility: 2.1?

Total Fertility Rate

Mortality: Subtracting People

In 2006, national death rates ranged from less than 3 per 1,000 in Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE to 28 in Swaziland. The average for the world was 8.6. Crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a year divided by the average total population. Age/sex-specific death rate (ASDR) is the number of deaths in a year of people of a particular age group in the interval divided by the average number of people of that age in the population Life expectancy: the average age at death for a hypothetical group of people born in a particular year and being subjected to the risks of death experienced by people of all ages in that year
High toll from preventable diseases Life expectancy can decline (Russia and sub-Saharan Africa)

Migration: Adding and Subtracting People

Net migration: the difference between the number of people moving in and the number moving out Population size = Fertility Mortality Migration Population Composition: Age, Sex, Race/Ethnicity

Population Pyramids

Population Pyramids

Why is Demography Important?

Nearly everything is connected to demography
Globalization
Search for cheap labor

Terrorism and Regional Conflict

Aggravated by the youth bulge in the Middle East and South Asia

Why is Demography Important?

Violence in sub-Saharan Africa
Aggravated by high birth rates and issues arising from HIV/AIDS

Backlash against immigrants

Aggravated by xenophobia in the face of the need for workers in the richer, aging countries

Poverty
Unbalanced sex-ratio in ghetto areas Urban sprawl: rich-poor segregation

Why is Demography Important?

Degradation of the environment
Every person added to the population requires energy to prepare food, provide clothing and shelter, and fuel economic life.
Can we feed everyone? Can we pull everyone out of poverty?

We must guard against demographic fatigue

The silent explosion is taking place outside the rich countries

Why is Demography Important?

Demographics of Social Planning Local agencies use demographics to plan for services (education, fire, police, sanitation, economic development) for their communities. Sickness and health are affected by sociodemographic characteristics and the demand for services shifts with demographic trends.

Why is Demography Important?

Marketing Demographics Segmenting markets - tailoring products and services to a specific demographic group Targeting - aiming the advertising of a product or service to a specific demographic group Cluster marketing relates demographic information about people to information about where they live.

Riding the Age Wave: Births and Selected Age Groups in the U.S.
60 5

50 4

40

Population (in millions)

Births (in millions)

30

2 20

10

Births 10-19 40-49 65-74

0 96 1 5 96 1 0 97 1 5 97 1 0 98 1 5 98 1 0 99 1 5 99 2 0 00 2 5 00 2 0 01 2 5 01 2 0 02 2 5 02 2 0 03 2 5 03 2 0 04 2 5 04 2 0 05

Is Demography Destiny?
Demography shapes the world, even if it does not determine it. Population change is an underlying component of almost everything happening in the world today, and therefore in the future as well The sun never sets on demographic change!

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