Energy & The Industrial Revolution Past, Present & Future

Arun Majumdar Google

Industrial Revolution: Horse Power to Horsepower

300 Horsepower

10,000 Horsepower

100,000 Horsepower

Global per Capita GDP

1750s: 2013: 2050: 2100:

0.7B 7.0B 9.0B 10.0B

Do we have enough fossil fuels to support population & economic growth?

Global Oil Reserves Global Gas Reserves w/o US Shale

BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012)

120 100 Price ($/barrel) 80

Global Oil Price & Economic Unpredictability

Real

60 40 20
Nominal

Thousands of Barrels per day

0 25000 20000 15000 10000 US Total Oil Consumption

US Balance of Payments

100

60 40 $300B/yr US Imports

5000
0

20
0

1976

1982

2009

1973

1979

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2012

Imported Oil Percentage

80

We are not alone!

9

Million barrels per day

8 7 6 5 4 3 2

China

Domestic Consumption

Domestic Production

1 0 1965
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Averages & Extremes

Hansen, Sato, Ruedy, Perception of climate change, PNAS, Aug. 6 (2012)

Cumulative CO2 emissions since Industrial Revolution About 1 Trillion Tons

How much more CO2 can we emit based on known fossil fuel reserves? About 3 Trillion Tons 75-100 years Worth $10s of Trillion!!

The Stone Age did not end because we ran out stones
Sheikh Ahmed Yamani, former Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia

We transitioned to better solutions A New Industrial Revolution

Nature, Vol. 488, pp. 294-303 (2012)

Technologies that lead to fundamentally new learning curves

Enhance U.S. economic, energy & environmental security Ensure U.S. lead in advanced energy technologies
Multiple shots at goal

TRANSFORMATIONAL
Steam-powered Cugnot (1769)

Cost Performance

Benz Motorwagen (1885)

existing technology

DISRUPTIVE Time, Scale

Ford Model T (1914)

Energy Systems

US Department of Energy. Report on the First Quadrennial Technology Review. (US DOE, 2011).

Horizontal Drilling & Hydraulic Fracturing

Shale Gas Extraction Coupled Chemistry, Transport, Mechanics

10-100 nm pores

Courtesy: Mark Zoback, Stanford

Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation

10-15 8-15 5-12 8-14 8-14

4-10

Sunshot 2020 Wind Geothermal Coal Nuclear NGCC

Distributed & Modular

5 cents/kWh

Source: Sustainable Energy in America 2013 Factbook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Jan (2013)

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

Fully Installed Residential PV ($/W)

Fully Installed Utility PV ($/W)

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

Tesla

Edison

$100B/yr lost in power outages

One-way flow

Grid

Distributed Load

Cyber-Physical Security

PG&E Metcalf 600kV Substation

2am, April 16, 2013 120 shots fired at the radiators of only energized transformers >50,000 gallons of cooling oil leaked Fiber optic & telephone cables cut 15 mins before the shootings 911 disabled

Boston Marathon Bombing April 15, 2013

Age
Expected Lifespan = 40 years

Average Age =

42 years

Negative Load

CALIFORNIA LOAD

Load
Ducks Belly

Ramp Rate= 150200 MW/min

Midnight

Noon

4pm

6pm

Midnight

Current Paradigm

California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Supply-Demand Balance 24/7

DayAhead

HourAhead

15minAhead

Electric Utility

Shifting Paradigm

CAISO Supply-Demand Balance 24/7

Dynamic Prices Dynamic Demand & Supply

Electric Utility INFORMATION FLOW Gas Utility

Generator

Waste Heat

Grid-Scale Storage (GWh Scale)

$1000/kWh
Others City College New York
90Ah 12V battery

Capital Cost $100/kWh

Levelized Cost

Zn-MnO2 Battery Highlights

2-2.5 /kWh
ASU Rechargeable Zn-Air Battery

MIT
Li-ion Flow Battery

$10/kWh

Zn-based Battery

Power Electronics
Switches (w)
Integrated WBG >13kV WBG

Magnetics (jwL)
High Flux Soft Magnets

SiC

GaN

Converters
High >10 W, >95% Efficiency
Single-Chip

Capacitors (1/jwC)
Reliable + fast + high energy density

Single Chip AC

Power Electronics

8000 lbs, 60 Hz Distribution Transformer Average Age: 42 years, 2 years beyond projected lifespan

Silicon Carbide IGBT; 15 kV, 100 A; 50 kHz from Cree Inc. Potentially 100 lbs transformer 26

Low Loss High Frequency Soft Magnets

SOFT MAGNETS

Loss (kW/m3)

Transportation
Water

Rail Pipeline 5

Fuel
Gasoline/Diesel Natural Gas Biofuel Electricity

Air 7.8

Power Train
Trucks

22.2

58.8

Light Duty Vehicles

IC Engine Batteries/Electric Motor Fuel Cells Hybrids

Buses

Light Weighting

Courtesy: E. J. Moniz (DOE)

29

Vehicle Electrification
Electric Vehicles Comparable in Range and Cost
Today ARPA-E $500/kWh$250/kWh
Li-air Li-S Adv Li-ion

Mg-ion
Zn-air

Li-ion
NiMH Pb-acid

BEEST

40

210

400

4000

Practical energy density (Wh/kg)

30 30

POROUS Si ANODE

Mn-BASED CATHODE

400 Wh/kg; C/10 80% depth of discharge Roughly $250/kWh

Argonne National Lab

Sunlight to Fuels
Electrons Reducing Equivalents

Chemical Catalysis Biomass Algae

Syngas CH3OH CH4 Advanced fuels?

Biological Catalysis

Advanced fuels

Ethanol Advanced biofuels Pyrolysis oil

Biodiesel Advanced biofuels

Electrofuels
(via Non-Photosynthetic Microbes)
OPX Biotechnology & North Carolina State University

Assimilate Reducing Equivalents

Reducing equivalents: other than reduced carbon or products from Photosystems I & II NH3 eH2S H2 Fe2+ Pathway for carbon fixation: reverse TCA, Calvin- Benson, Wood-Ljungdahl, hydroxpropionate/hydroxybutyrate, or newly designed biochemical pathways Fuel synthesis metabolic engineering to direct carbon flux to fuel products + numerous possibilities alkanes butanol

Fix CO2 for Biosynthesis

Generate Energy Dense Liquid Fuel

Plants Engineered to Replace Oil (PETRO)

Today 80 GJ/ha-yr Future 160 GJ/ha-yr @ $50/BOE Algae

?
Tobacco

LBL & UC Berkeley

(In)Famous Predictions from the Past

Radio has no future X-rays will prove to be a hoax.

Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible

Lord Kelvin in 1890s

(In)Famous Predictions from the Past

Man will not fly for 50 years. Wilbur Wright in 1901

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Arthur C. Clarke

Thank you!