15-1

Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd

PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

Chapter 15

Elementary Probability
Introductory Mathematics
& Statistics
15-2
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

Learning Objectives
Understand elementary probability concepts
Calculate the probability of events
Distinguish between mutually exclusive, dependent and
independent events
Calculate conditional probabilities
Understand and use the general addition law for
probabilities
Understand and apply Venn diagrams
Understand and apply probability tree diagrams
15-3
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.1 Introduction
In everyday language we often refer to the probability that certain
events will happen
We also use the word chance as a substitute for probability on
some occasions
While we all use the word probability in our language, there
would be few people who could provide a formal definition of its
meaning
Examples
There is a 10% chance that it will rain
There is a 30% chance that Essendon will win the AFL
premiership in the year 2010
There is a 25% chance that a certain investment will yield a profit
in the coming year
There is a 5050 chance that I will get a tax refund next year
The probability that a 767 jet plane will crash into the Sydney
Harbour Bridge before the year 2030 is 1 in 100 million
15-4
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.2 Probability of events
Sample space
When a statistical experiment is conducted, there are a
number of possible outcomes
These possible outcomes are called a sample space and
this is denoted by S
E.g. a coin is tossed. What is the sample space?
Solution: S = {head, tail}
Events
An event is a specified subset of a sample space.
E.g. a coin is tossed. Define event A as the outcome
heads
Solution: A = outcome is a head
15-5
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Events (cont)
More than one event can be defined from a sample
space.
E.g. suppose a card is drawn at random from a pack of
52 playing cards. Define events A, B and C as drawing
an ace, red card and face card, respectively
Solution: A = card drawn is an ace, B = card drawn is
red, C = card drawn is a face card

The impossible event (or empty set) is one that contains
no outcomes. It is often denoted by the Greek letter
(phi)
E.g. a hand of 5 cards is dealt from a deck z. Let A be
the event that the hand contains 5 aces. Is this
possible?
Solution : Since there are only 4 aces in the deck, event
A cannot occur. Hence A is an impossible event.

u
15-6
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Probability
If A is an event, the probability that it will occur is denoted by
P(A)
The probability (or chance) that an event A will occur is the
proportion of possible outcomes in the sample space that yield
the event A. That is:





The definition makes sense only if the number of possible
outcomes (the sample space) is finite
If an event can never occur, its probability is 0. An event that
always happens has probability 1
The value of a probability must always lie between 0 and 1
A probability may be expressed as a decimal or a fraction
( )
outcomes possible of number total
A event yield that outcomes of number
= A P
15-7
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Mutually exclusive events
Two events A and B are said to be mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur simultaneously
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the following
relationship holds:



Suppose that are mutually exclusive
events. Then:

( ) ( ) ( ) B P A P B or A P + =
n 3 2 1
A , A , A , A
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
n 3 2 1
n 3 2 1
A P A P A P A P
A A or A or A P
+ + + + =

15-8
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Independent events
Two events A and B are independent events if the occurrence of
one does not alter the likelihood of the other event occurring
Events that are not independent are called dependent events
If two events A and B are independent, the following relationship
holds:



Suppose that are n independents events. Then
( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
n 3 2 1
n 3 2 1
A P A P A P A P
A and A and A and A P
=

( ) ( ) ( ) B P A P AandB P =
n 3 2 1
A , A , A , A
15-9
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
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15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Complementary events
The complement of an event is the set of outcomes of a
sample space for which the event does not occur
Two events that are complements of each other are said to
be complementary events
(Note: complementary events are mutually exclusive)
Suppose we define the events:
A = no one has the characteristic
B = at least 1 person has the characteristic
Then A and B are complementary events

P (at least 1 person has the characteristic)
= 1 P (no person has the characteristic)
15-10
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
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15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Conditional probabilities
The probability that event A will occur, given that an event
B has occurred, is called the conditional probability that A
will occur, given that B has occurred
The notation for this conditional probability is P (A|B)
For any two events, A and B, the following relationship
holds:


( )
( )
( ) B P
B and A P
B A P =
15-11
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.2 Probability of events (cont)
Conditional probabilities (cont)
If two events A and B are independent



Substituting this result





That is, for independent events A and B the conditional
probability that event A will occur, given that event B had
occurred, is simply the probability that event A will occur

( ) ( ) ( ) B P A P B A P =
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( ) A P
B P
B P A P
B A P
=

=
15-12
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
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15.2 Probability of events (cont)
The general addition law

When two events are not mutually exclusive, use the
following general addition law



If the events A and B are mutually exclusive,
P(A and B) = 0
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) B and A P B P A P B or A P + =
15-13
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.3 Venn diagrams
Sample spaces and events are often presented in a visual
display called a Venn diagram

Use the following conventions
A sample space is represented by a rectangle
Events are represented by regions within the rectangle. This
is usually done using circles

Venn diagrams are used to assist in presenting a picture of
the union and intersection of events, and in the calculation of
probabilities
15-14
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
Definitions
The union of two events A and B is the set of all outcomes that
are in event A or event B. The notation is:

Union of event A and event B = A B

Hence, we could write, for example, P (A B) instead of
P(A or B)

The intersection of two events A and B is the set of all
outcomes that are in both event A and event B. The notation
is:

Intersection of event A and event B = A B

Hence, we could write, for example, P (A B) instead of
P(AandB)
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15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The shaded area is event A
15-16
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
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15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The union of two events A and B is the set of all
outcomes that are in event A or event B

B A B A = event and event of Union
15-17
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The intersection of two events A and B is the set of all
outcomes that are in both event A and event B.

B A B A = event and event of on Intersecti
15-18
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.3 Venn diagrams (cont)
The intersection of events A, B and C is the set of all
outcomes that is in events A, B and C
C B A C and B and A events of on Intersecti =
A B
C
15-19
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.4 Probability tree diagrams
Probability tree diagrams can be a useful visual display
of probabilities
The diagrams are especially useful for determining
probabilities involving events that are not independent
The joint probabilities for combinations of these events
are found by multiplying the probabilities along the
branches from the beginning of the tree
If the events are not independent, the probabilities on
the second tier of branches will be conditional
probabilities, since their values will depend on what
happened in the first event
15-20
Copyright 2010 McGraw-Hill Australia Pty Ltd
PowerPoint slides to accompany Croucher, Introductory Mathematics and Statistics, 5e

15.4 Probability tree diagrams (cont..)
Example
A clothing store has just imported a new range of suede
jackets that it has advertised at a bargain price on a rack
inside the store. The probability that a customer will try on a
jacket is 0.40. If a customer tries on a jacket, the probability
that he or she will buy it is 0.70. If a customer does not try
on a jacket, the probability that he or she will buy it is 0.15.
Calculate the probability that:
(a) a customer will try on a jacket and will buy it
(b) a customer will try on a jacket and will not buy it
(c) a customer will not try on a jacket and will buy it
(d) a customer will not try on a jacket and will not buy it
15-21
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15.4 Probability tree diagrams (cont..)
Solution
15-22
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Summary
We have looked at understanding elementary
probability concepts
We calculated the probability of events
We distinguished between mutually exclusive,
dependent and independent events
We also looked at calculating conditional probabilities
We understood and used the general addition law for
probabilities
We understood and applied Venn diagrams
We understood and applied probability tree diagrams