Forecasting Methods

Gold Price Forecasting

Content
Introduction
Forecasting Models
Gold Price Data
Graphs



Introduction
Forecasting is a process of predicting or estimating the future
based on past and present data. Forecasting provides
information about the potential future events and their
consequences for the organisation. It may not reduce the
complications and uncertainty of the future. However, it
increases the confidence of the management to make
important decisions. Forecasting is the basis of premising.
Forecasting uses many statistical techniques. Therefore, it is
also called as Statistical Analysis.
Forecasting vs. Prediction:
Forecasting: Estimating future by casting forward from past
data.
Prediction: Estimating future based on any subjective
consideration other than just past data.

Forecasting Models





Forecasting
Techniques
Qualitative
Models
Time Series
Methods
Causal
Methods
Delphi
Method
Jury of Executive
Opinion
Sales Force
Composite
Consumer Market
Survey
Naive
Moving
Average

Weighted
Moving Average

Exponential
Smoothing

Trend Analysis

Seasonality
Analysis

Simple
Regression
Analysis
Multiple
Regression
Analysis
Multiplicative
Decomposition
Holts Method
We begin with an estimate of the intercept and slope at the
start (by Lin. Reg.?)
lt = *Yt + (1-)*(lt-1 + bt-1)
bt = *(lt lt-1) + (1- )*bt-1
Yt is obs. demand;
lt estimate of the label of the series at time t;
Bt estimate od the scope of the series at time t;
Ft+m = lt+ bt*m (forecast for time m into the future)

Gold Price Data




Serial Year Price Forecast Price
1 2000 4400 -
2 2001 4300 4300
3 2002 4990 4271.67
4 2003 5600 5288.63
5 2004 5850 5855.18
6 2005 7000 5984.23
7 2006 8400 7541.64
8 2007 10800 9027.19
9 2008 12500 11909.06
10 2009 14500 13304.66
11 2010 18500 15506.40
12 2011 26400 20367.33
13 2012 30000 29983.46
14 2013 - 31725.68
Assumptions :-
= 0.801
= 0.801
M=1
l1 = 4400
b1 = Y2-Y1

Year And Price
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Year
Price Y(t)
Year, Price And Forecast data


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Price Y(t)
f(t)
Year, Price, Forecast and MAPE

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Price Y(t)
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MeanPercentage Error


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Serial
Year
Price Y(t)
f(t)
l(t)
b(t)


m
MeanPercentage Error
Thanks