Bachelor in Civil

Engineering

Seismic Hazard
Analysis

Earthquake Resistant
Design of Structures

Hazard vs Risk
Seismic Hazard Analysis
Describes the potential for dangerous
earthquake-related natural phenomena
such as ground shaking, fault rupture,
or soil liquefaction.
Seismic Risk Analysis
Assesses the probability of occurrence
of losses (human, social, economic)
associated with the seismic hazards.

Approaches to Seismic
Hazard Analysis
Deterministic
The earthquake hazard for the site is a
peak ground acceleration of 0.35g
resulting from an earthquake of
magnitude 6.0 on the Balcones Fault at a
distance of 12 miles from the site.
Probabilistic
The earthquake hazard for the site is a
peak ground acceleration of 0.28g with a
2 percent probability of being exceeded
in a 50-year period.


DSHA involves the development
of a particular seismic scenario
upon which a ground motion
hazard evaluation is based. The
scenario consists of the postulated
occurrence of an earthquake of a
specified size occurring at a
specified location.
Deterministic Seismic
Hazard Analysis
Steps in Deterministic Seismic
Hazard Analysis

Source Types

Step-1- Sources
Identification and
characterization of all
earthquake sources
capable of producing
significant ground
motion at the site.
Source
characterization
includes definition of
each sources
geometry (the source
zone) and earthquake
potential
Source Types

Localizing structure: An identifiable
geological structure that is assumed to
generate or localize earthquakes.
This is generally a concentration of
known or unknown active faults.
Seismotectonic provience: A region
where there is a known seismic hazard
but where there are no identifiable active
faults or localizing structures.
Maximum Earthquake
Maximum possible earthquake: An
upper bound to size (however unlikely)
determined by earthquake processes (e.g.,
maximum seismic moment).
Maximum credible earthquake: The
maximum reasonable earthquake size based on
earthquake processes (but does not imply
likely occurrence).
Maximum historic earthquake: The
maximum historic or instrumented earthquake
that is often a lower bound on maximum
possible or maximum credible earthquake.
Maximum considered earthquake:
Described later.

Step-2 Controlling Earthquake
Selection of source to site distance
parameter for each source zone.
In DSHA the shortest distance between
source zone and the site is selected.
The distance may be expressed as an epi-
central distance or hypo-central distance,
depending on the measure of distance of
the predictive relationship.
Ground Motion
Attenuation

Step-3 Ground Motion
Attenuation
Selection of
controlling earthquake.
Selection is made by
comparing the levels of
shaking produced by
EQ( step-1) assumed to
occur at the distances
(step-2).
The controlling EQ in
terms of its size and
distance from the site.




Hazard at Site
Step-4 Hazard at Site
The hazard at site is formally defined
usually in terms of ground motions
produced at the site by the controlling
earthquakes.
Peak acceleration, peak velocity and
response spectrum ordinates are
commonly used to characterize the seismic
hazard.

.
Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Analysis
The PSHA provides a framework
in which these uncertainties can
be identified, quantified and
combined in a rational manner to
provide a more complete picture
of the seismic hazard

Source Types
Identification and
characterization of all
earthquake sources
capable of producing
significant ground
motion at the site same
as DSHA except that
the probability
distribution of potential
rupture locations within
the source must also be
characterized.
Source Types
In most cases, uniform probability
distributions are assigned to each source
zone, implying that earthquakes are equally
likely to occur at any point within the source
zone.
These distributions are then combined with
the source geometry to obtain the
corresponding probability distribution of
source to site distance.
The probability of occurrence is 1 at the
points in each source zone closest to the site
and zero elsewhere.
Recurrence
The seismicity or temporal
distribution of earthquake recurrence
must be characterized.
A recurrence relationship which
specifies the average rate at which an
earthquake of some size will be
exceeded is used to characterize the
seismicity of each source zone.
The recurrence relationship may
accommodate the maximum size of
earthquake but it does not limit
consideration to that earthquake DSHA
often do.
Ground Motion
The ground motion produced at the
site by earthquake of any possible size
occurring at any possible point each
source zone must be determined with
the use of predictive relationship.
Probability of
Exceedance
The uncertainties in earthquake
location, size and ground motion
parameter prediction are combined to
obtain the probability that the ground
motion parameter will be exceeded
during a particular time period.
Earthquake Occurrence and
Return Period It is of importance to estimate the frequency of
occurrence of earthquakes that are likely to
occur in an area that may influence the
construction site during the lifetime of the
intended facility. Account should be taken of the
uncertainty in the demand imposed by the
earthquake, as well as the uncertainty in the
capacity of the constructed facility. Current
seismic design approaches deal with
uncertainties associated with structural demand
and capacity by utilizing probabilistic analysis
(e.g. Cornell et al. , 2002 ).
Earthquakes are usually modeled in
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment as a
Poisson process.
The Poisson model is a continuous time,
integer-value counting process with stationary
independent increments. This means that the
number of events occurring in an interval of
time depends only on the length of the
interval and does not change in time
Poisson model is simple because it is defined
by a single parameter N , which expresses the
mean rate of occurrence of an earthquake per
unit of time.




Seismic Zoning
ZONE FACTORS FOR SELECTED
MUNICIPALITIES
MANICIPALITY FACTOR.Z MUNICIPALITY
FACTCR.Z
Shadrapur 0.93 Dharan 1.00

Bharatpur 0.99 Dipayal 1.10

Bidur 1.00 Gaur 0.82
Birendra Nagar 1.02 Ilam 0.97

Biratnagar 0.93 Janakpur
0.89
Birganj 0.85 Kathmandu 1.0
Butwal 0.90 Valley Towns 1.00

Byas 1.00 Mahendra Nagar 0.91

Damak 0.96 Nepalganj
0.91
Dhanagadi 0.90 Pokhara 1.00

Dhanakuta 1.00 Tulsipur 1.00