Spatio-Temporal variability of Water

resources in the Ganga basin

By
Subashisa Dutta
Associate Professor
E-mail : subashisa@iitg.ernet.in

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY GUWAHATI
GUWAHATI, ASSAM-781039
For

National Students Conference On River Basin Planning
IIT Kanpur, 4 to 5
th
November 2011
Sattriya dance-Assam,
http://www.gurleenmehak.blo
gspot.com/

Overview of the lecture
2
1. Spatio-temporal variation of surface water resources in the basin
( annual water yield, monsoon flow, non-monsoon flow,
lean month flow, dependable flow)

2. Current Ground water utilization : crop statistics and GIS analysis

3. Spatio-temporal variability of Ground water Resources in the Basin


4. Fertilizer application and crop productivity :
an indicator for non-point source pollution


5. Resilience in the Water Resources system: How long ?


Hydrological Storage, release function and interdependency
3
Surface water
storage
M J S D J
M J S D J
M J S D J
Q
Q
Q
Monsoon recharge
Ground water
storage
Flood recharge
Irrigation
ET
ET
P
SM
ET : Evapo-transpiration, P: Precipitation, SM: Snow Melting Run-off, Q: Discharge
Note for Ganga Basin:
Ground water Irrigation controlled by the farmers and Agricultural Economy,
Flood recharge depending upon the frequency of wet-Monsoon
ET depending upon the distribution of Landuse/landcovers remains fairly constant
Hydrological links between groundwater and surface water storage defined by Hydro-geological
characteristics

Study Area: Ganga River basin in Bihar
4
Data used:
1. Hydrological data
(1960 to 1992)

2. Satellite Altimetry data
(1993 to 2003)

3. Ground water level
data (2001 to 2009)

4. Agricultural
statistics (Crop
water requirement,
productivity, Area,
Crop type etc.)

5. Other ancillary
information (Bhuvan
satellite imagery,)

Hydrological Trends of the Ganga
river flow* at the downstream of Farakka
* Webster, J. P., Jian, J., Hopson, M. T., Paula, A. A., Chuang, H., Curry, J. A., Grossman, R. L., Palmer, T. N., Subiah, A. R.,
(2010) Extended-range probabilistic forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra floods in Bangladesh. Bulletin of the Am.
Met. Society., 2911.1.

5
y = -0.014x + 33.77
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
F
l
o
w

i
n

1
0
4

c
u
m
e
c

Year
Monthly peak flow
y = -0.009x + 20.51
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
F
l
o
w

i
n

1
0
4

c
u
m
e
c

year
Annual Water yield
Pre-Surface water
development
Project
Ground water
development
Project

Hydrological trends of Major tributary flows
* Report of the 2
nd
Bihar State Irrigation Commission 1994
6
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
M
C
M
)

Year
Monsoon Water yield Non-Monsoon Water yield
Monsoon season
Water yield: 43215 MCM
Hydrological trend : Variable
Non-Monsoonal Season
Water yield: 9491 MCM
Hydrological trend : Fairly Constant

0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1
9
6
3
-
6
4
6
4
-
6
5
6
5
-
6
6
6
6
-
6
7
6
7
-
6
8
6
8
-
6
9
6
9
-
7
0
7
0
-
7
1
7
1
-
7
2
7
2
-
7
3
7
3
-
7
4
7
4
-
7
5
7
5
-
7
6
7
6
-
7
7
7
7
-
7
8
7
8
-
7
9
7
9
-
8
0
8
0
-
8
1
8
1
-
8
2
8
2
-
8
3
8
3
-
8
4
8
4
-
8
5
8
5
-
8
6
8
6
-
8
7
8
7
-
8
8
8
8
-
8
9
8
9
-
9
0
9
0
-
9
1
9
1
-
9
2
9
2
-
9
3
D
i
s
c
h
a
r
g
e

(
M
C
M
)

Year
Monsoonal Water yield
Non-Monsoonal Water yield
Annual variation of water yield of the Ghagra river at Turtipar station
Annual variation of water yield of the Kosi
river at Saptakosi station
Monsoon season
Water yield: 72287 MCM
Hydrological trend : Variable
Non-Monsoonal Season
Water yield: 11467 MCM
Hydrological trend : Variable


Flow duration curve and dependable annual water yield
7
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 20 40 60 80 100
A
n
n
u
a
l

I
n
f
l
o
w

Y
i
e
l
d

i
n

M
C
M

Probability of Exceedence
Kosi River Basin
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
0 20 40 60 80 100
A
n
n
u
a
l

I
n
f
l
o
w

Y
e
i
l
d

i
n

M
C
M

Probability of Exceedence
Ghaghra River Basin
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 20 40 60 80 100
A
n
n
u
a
l

I
n
f
l
o
w

Y
i
e
l
d

i
n

M
C
M

Probability of Exceedence
Punpun River Basin
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 20 40 60 80 100
A
n
n
u
a
l

I
n
f
l
o
w

Y
i
e
l
d

i
n

M
C
M

Probability of Exceedence
Karmnasa River Basin

Long term Average February month flow in Ganga river
8
106
Main
Ganga
Bay of
Bengal
Tons-Karmnasa
Chambal
Yamuna
Sone
Bhagirathi
Indo-Bangladesh
Border
Azamabad
Farakka Barrage
Ramganga Gomti
Ghaghra
Gandak-Burhi Gandak
Ground
water(Buxar
to
Azamabad)
Mahananda
Kosi
Buxar
Mahananda
3888

1
1
8
4


3
1
6
4


2
2
8

8
9
9


7
1
2


2
1
5

3
9
3


6
7

7
2
3


3
4
9

2
1
7

(
1
4
8
7
)

All data are 75% dependable flow (Million Cubic Meter)
Findings:
Indo-Bangladesh Ganga water sharing treaty: 3888 MCM at
Farakka
Ground water contribution: 1487 MCM
* Report of the 2
nd
Bihar State Irrigation Commission 1994

Long term Average March month flow in Ganga river
9
114
Main
Ganga
Bay of
Bengal
Tons-Karmnasa
Chambal
Yamuna
Sone
Bhagirathi
Indo-Bangladesh
Border
Azamabad
Farakka Barrage
Ramganga Gomti
Ghaghra
Gandak-Burhi Gandak
Ground
water(Buxar
to
Azamabad)
Mahanandaa
Kosi
Buxar
Mahananda
3888

1
1
8
4


3
1
2
0


2
3
5

9
2
2


7
1
5


2
2
0

2
9
8


4
9

7
6
7


3
6
5

1
9
9

(
1
2
3
6
)

All data are 75% dependable flow (Million Cubic Meter)
Findings:
Indo-Bangladesh Ganga water share treaty: 3888 MCM at
Farakka
Ground water contribution: 1236 MCM
* Report of the 2
nd
Bihar State Irrigation Commission 1994

Long term Average April month flow in Ganga river
10
215
Main
Ganga
Bay of
Bengal
Tons-Karmnasa
Chambal
Yamuna
Sone
Bhagirathi
Indo-Bangladesh
Border
Azamabad
Farakka Barrage
Ramganga Gomti
Ghaghra
Gandak-Burhi Gandak
Ground
water(Buxar
to
Azamabad)
Mahanandaa
Kosi
Buxar
Mahananda
3888

1
0
1
8


2
9
6
7

2
4
6

9
5
3


7
1
5


2
2
8

2
7
9


3
1

9
2
0


2
4
6

1
2
9

(
5
0
2
)

Findings:
Indo-Bangladesh Ganga water share treaty: 3888 MCM at Farakka
Ground water contribution in April Month : 502 MCM
Total three lean month flow
GW = 3225 MCM ( 27%), Kosi and Gandak River flow = 4552 MCM ( 40%), U/S catchments at Buxer : 3386 MCM ( 29%)
* Report of the 2
nd
Bihar State Irrigation Commission 1994

Satellite Altimetry measurement* for water level
11
Main River
Tributary
Wet land
y = 0.813x + 9.138
R = 0.954
34
36
38
40
42
44
32 34 36 38 40 42
River Stage (m)
(b)
Observed River Stage (m)
A
l
t
i
m
e
t
r
y

R
i
v
e
r

S
t
a
g
e

(
m
)

Performance of Satellite altimetry for
water level prediction in Brahmaputra
3.1
3.4 3.4
2.6
3.7
2.9
3.4
3.1
3.3
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
M
i
n
i
m
u
m

w
a
t
e
r

l
e
v
e
l


(
m
)

Year
Minimum water level variation from altimetry measurement
* http://www.legos.obs-mip.fr/soa/hydrologie/hydroweb

Spatio-temporal variation of ground water depth
12

Analysis of Groundwater variation: Depletion, Recharge and withdrawal

13
* Report of the 2
nd
Bihar State Irrigation Commission 1994

Water requirement for Agriculture system
14
Multiple cropping during Non-Monsoon season
Estimated Ground water irrigation = 9800 MCM

Total crop water requirement and Annual variation of recharge
15
2004: Flood year

Temporal variability of Groundwater and Potential recharge
MSS (1970s)
TM (1990) ETM (2000)
16
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Begusarai
Patna
Purnia
R
e
c
h
a
r
g
e

D
e
p
l
e
t
i
o
n

Temporal trend of annual recharge/depletion zones in three districts
Flood Area
Flood inundation in Bihar in 2007 showing potential recharge zones
Field photograph of a wetland

District-wise variation of fertilizer Application
17

Agriculture productivity and Fertilizer Application
18

Conclusion
19
Ground water irrigation, controlled by the farmers, is expected to
be the major water resources user ( 10,000 MCM to 15,000 MCM)

Conflict between Ground water irrigation and lean period flow in
the river

Wet monsoon year produces large-scale flood inundation based
recharge system

Availability of monsoon water yield is high and efficient
management of the surface water projects

Now, the water resources system is at resilience stage.
How Long ?


ACADEMIC Building, IIT Guwahati
Research Group
Thank You
1. Dr Subashisa Dutta
2. Dr. Bimlesh Kumar
3. Dr Suresh A. Kartha
4. Amit Kr Dubey
5. Ikram Ali
6. Pritam Biswas
7. Sangita Devi
8. Titas Ganguly

Farmer in a wheat field crop harvesting at Bihar