5

Human population
growth
This lecture will help you understand:
Human population growth
Demography
Affluence, technology, the
status of women, and the
environment
Population control programs
Demographic transition theory
Consumption and the
ecological footprint
HIV/AIDS and human
population
Key Words
age pyramid
age structure
AIDS epidemic
demographic transition
demography
doubling time
ecological footprint
family planning
greater-than-exponential
growth rate
human
immunodeficiency
virus/acquired
immunodeficiency
syndrome (HIV/AIDS)
industrial stage
IPAT model
life expectancy
population density
population distribution
population size
post-industrial stage
pre-industrial stage
replacement fertility
sex ratio
total fertility rate (TFR)
transitional stage

Central Case: Chinas One-Child Policy
Unfettered population growth posed challenges for
Chinas environment, economy, and political stability.
China tried to control its growth with a system of rewards
and punishments to encourage one-child families.
The program decreased population growth, but meant
government intrusion in private reproductive choices.
Baby Six Billion
The worlds population now exceeds 6 billion people.

The UN marked this symbolically by declaring a child born
in 1999 in war-torn Sarajevo as the six-billionth baby.
Figure 7.1
World population has risen sharply
Global human population was <1 billion in 1800.
Population has doubled just since 1963.
We add 2.5 people every second (79 million/year).
Figure 7.2
Population growth rates, 1990-1995
Growth rates vary from place to place.
Growth peaked at 2.1% in the 1960s; it has now declined
to 1.3%.
Figure 7.3
Is population growth really a problem?
Some say NO:

People can find or
manufacture additional
resources to keep pace
with population growth.
Nations become stronger
as their populations
grow.
Some say YES:

Not all resources can be
replaced.
Even if they could,
quality of life suffers.
Nations do not become
stronger as their
populations grow.
Modeling population and its consequences
Some models show population growth leading to resource
depletion, which can result in declining food production,
industrial output, and population.
Figure 7.4
Increasing our carrying capacity
Technology has allowed us to raise Earths carrying
capacity for our species time and again.
Tool-making, agriculture, and industrialization each
enabled humans to sustain greater populations.
Figure 7.5
Demography
Demography is the study of human populations.

Human populations exhibit the same fundamental
characteristics as do populations of all other
organisms.
Population size: National populations
Nations vary from Chinas 1.3 billion down to Pacific
island nations of 100,000.
Shown are the 15 most populous countries, and selected others; 2002 data.
Figure 7.6
Population size: Future projections
Demographers project population growth trends to estimate
future population sizes.

Different fertility rate scenarios predict global population
sizes in 2050 of 7.4 billion, 8.9 billion, or 10.6 billion.
All these projections assume fertility rates below todays; at todays rate, the
population would reach 12.8 billion.
Figure 7.7
Population density and distribution
Figure 7.8
Humans are unevenly distributed, living at different
densities from region to region.
Age structure
Age structure
can influence
population
growth rates.
Figure 7.9
Age structure: Age pyramids
Canada (left) has a much slower growing population than
does Madagascar (right).
Figure 7.10
Age structure: Graying populations
Demographers project that Chinas population will become
older over the next two decades.
Figure 7.11a,b
Age structure: Graying populations
Chinas aging population will mean fewer working-age
citizens to finance social services for retirees.
Figure 7.11c
Age structure: Baby booms
The United States baby boom is evident in age bracket
4050. U.S. age structure will change as baby boomers
grow older.
Figure 7.12
Sex ratios
A populations
sex ratio can
affect its
growth rate.
Figure 7.13
Factors affecting population growth rates
Population growth depends on rates of birth, death,
immigration, and emigration.

(birth rate + immigration rate)
(death rate + emigration rate)
= population growth rate
Migration can have environmental effects
Immigration and emigration play large roles today.

Refugees from the 1994 Rwandan genocide endured great
hardship, and deforested large areas near refugee camps.
Figure 7.14
Natural rate of population change
Change due to birth and death rates alone,
excluding migration

Is often expressed in % per year
Chinas natural rate of change has fallen
Chinas rate has fallen with fertility rates. It now takes the
population 4 times as long to double as it did 25 years ago.
Global growth rates have fallen
The annual growth
rate of the world
population has
declined since the
1960s.

(But the population
size is still rising!)
Figure 7.15
Fertility rates affect population growth rates
Total fertility rate (TFR) = average number of
children born per woman during her lifetime

Replacement fertility = the TFR that keeps
population size stable

For humans, replacement fertility is about 2.1.
Total fertility rates by region
African nations have the highest TFRs.
European nations have the lowest TFRs.
Demographic transition theory
Demographic transition = model of
economic and cultural change to explain
declining death rates, declining birth rates, and
rising life expectancies in Western nations as
they became industrialized

Proposed by F. Notestein in the 1940s-1950s
Demographic transition: Stages
Figure 7.18
Demographic transition: Stages
The demographic transition consists of several stages:
Pre-industrial stage: high death rates and high birth rates
Transitional stage: death rates fall due to rising food
production and better medical care. Birth rates remain high, so
population surges.
Industrial stage: birth rates fall, as women are employed and
as children become less economically useful in an urban
setting. Population growth rate declines.
Post-industrial stage: birth and death rates remain low and
stable; society enjoys fruits of industrialization without threat
of runaway population growth.
Female education and TFR
Female literacy and
school enrollment are
correlated with total
fertility rate:

More-educated women
have fewer children.
Figure 7.16
Family planning and TFR
Family planning, health care, and reproductive education
can lower TFRs.

A counselor advises African women on health care and
reproductive rights.
Figure 7.17b
Family planning and TFR
Nations that
invested in
family
planning
(green)
reduced
TFRs more
than similar
nations that
did not
(red).
Figure 7.17a
TFR decline in Bangladesh
Bangladesh
reduced TFR
from 7.1 to 4.6
in 25 yr, and is
at 3.3 today.
Family
planning,
education, and
outreach were
responsible.
From The Science behind the Stories
HIV/AIDS and human population
AIDS cases are increasing rapidly worldwide.
Figure 7.26
HIV/AIDS and human population
Infects 1 in 5 people in southern African nations
Infects 5 million new people each year
Kills babies born to
infected mothers
Has orphaned
14 million children
Has cut 15 years off
life expectancies in
parts of
southern Africa
Figure 7.27
Poorer countries will experience most future
population growth
98% of the
next billion
people born
will live in
developing
nations.
Figure 7.20
Population and the environment
Population growth can lead to environmental degradation.

Overpopulation in Africas Sahel region has led to
overgrazing of semi-arid lands.
Figure 7.21
Affluence and the environment
Poverty can lead to environmental degradation

BUT

wealth and resource consumption can produce even
more severe and far-reaching environmental impacts.
The ecological footprint
The cumulative amount of Earths surface area
required to provide the raw materials a person or a
population consumes and to dispose of or recycle
the waste that is produced
Ecological footprints
Residents of some
countries consume
more resourcesand
thus use more land
than residents of
others.

Shown are ecological
footprints of an
average citizen from
various nations.
Figure 7.23
The wealth gap
Residents of developed
nations have larger houses,
more possessions, and more
money than residents of
developing nations.

The richest 20% of the
worlds people consumes
86% of its resources, and
has >80 times the income of
the poorest 20%.
Figure 7.25
Demographic fatigue and demographic
transition
Many governments of developing countries are
experiencing demographic fatigue, unable to meet the
social, economic, and environmental challenges imposed by
rapid population growth.

This raises the question:
Will todays developing countries successfully pass
through the demographic transition?
The IPAT model
Shows how Population, Affluence, and Technology interact
to create Impact on our environment.

I = P A T

Further factors can be added to the original equation of Holdren and
Ehrlich to make it more comprehensive.
Conclusions: Challenges
Human population is rising by 79 million people annually.
Many more people are born into poverty than into wealth.
Rich and poor nations are divided by a wealth gap.
HIV/AIDS is taking a heavy toll.
Population growth has severe environmental effects.
Conclusions: Solutions
Expanding womens rights is crucial to encourage the
demographic transition.
Health and reproductive education and counseling can
reduce fertility rates.
Education, medicine, and policies can lessen the toll of
HIV/AIDS.
New green technologies can help reduce population
growths environmental impacts.
Viewpoints: Population control?
Timothy
Cline
Douglas
Sylva
Access to
reproductive health
care, including family
planning, is a basic
human right.
Governments do not
have an interest in
further reducing
fertility. Nor should
they have the authority
to do so.
From Viewpoints
QUESTION: Review
Using the I = P A T equation, what would happen if
the population doubled?

a. Affluence and technology would decline.
b. The environment would become more sensitive.
c. The environmental impact would double.
d. Nothing, because Earth can compensate.
QUESTION: Review
What has allowed us to increase Earths carrying capacity
for our species?

a. Agriculture
b. Industrialization
c. Tool-making
d. All of the above
QUESTION: Review
Which statement is FALSE?

a. The global population growth rate is decreasing.
b. The global population is increasing.
c. At a TFR of 2.4, a human population grows.
d. Populations with age distributions skewed
toward young people grow more slowly.
QUESTION: Review
Women who are more educated tend to ?

a. Have higher TFRs.
b. Live in developing nations.
c. Have fewer children.
d. Contract HIV/AIDS.
QUESTION: Weighing the Issues
Should the United States fund family planning efforts in
other nations?

a. Yes, without reservation
b. Yes, in nations whose programs it approves
c. Only if it can influence the nations policies
d. Never under any circumstances
QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data
What happens
during the
transitional
stage of the
demographic
transition?

a. Birth rates rise; death rates drop; population increases
b. Birth rates drop; death rates drop; population decreases
c. Death rates drop; birth rates are stable; population
increases
Figure 7.18
QUESTION: Viewpoints
Do you believe that national governments should implement
policies, subsidies, or other programs to reduce birth rates?

a. No, not at all
b. Yes, but only positive incentives for fewer
children
c. Yespenalties for too many children
d. Yes, both incentives and penalties