A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a

mathematical theory of probability by two famous

French mathematicians
Blaise
Pascal
Pierre de
Fermat
Suppose a game has n equally likely outcomes, of
which m outcomes correspond to winning. Probability
of winning is m/n.
Repeat a game several times under
the same conditions. The probability
of winning is approximately equal to
the proportion of wins in the repeats.
From Pascal and Fermats theory, Huygens
wrote the first book on probability.

The book:
devoted to calculating value(expectation)
of a game of chance.
treatise on problems associated with
gambling(hypergeometric distribution).

Describes the probability of k successes
in n draws without replacement from
a finite population of size N
containing exactly K successes.
James Bernoulli (1654-1705)
proved that the frequency method and the
classical method are consistent.
Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754)
provided tools to make the classical method
more useful, including the multiplication rule.
obtained the normal approximation to the
binomial distribution.
almost found the Poisson distribution.
In the 18
th
century, many mathematicians found the classical
method to be unrealistic for general use and were attempting to
redefine probability in terms of the frequency method.
Andrew Kolmogorov (1667-1754)
developed the first rigorous approach to
probability.
built up probability theory from fundamental
axioms comparable with Euclids treatment of
geometry.
PROBABILITY 101
Introduction
Probability is the likelihood of an event
occurring.
Probability can be expressed in a variety of
ways including a mathematically formal
way such as using percentages.
It can also be expressed using vocabulary
such as "unlikely," "likely," "certain," or
"possible."
Examples in daily life
Since it is sunny and hot, it is very likely I will go
to the pool today.
She comes to work late nearly everyday; so, it is
likely she is going to be reprimanded.
In a drawer of ten socks, 8 of them yellow, there
is a twenty percent chance of choosing a sock
that is not yellow.
The probability of winning the lottery is one in a
million.
SAMPLE SPACE OF AN
EXPERIMENT
The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment is called the sample space and
usually denoted by letter S.
Each outcome in a sample space is called an
element of the sample space or sample point.
Different sample spaces may be used to
demonstrate an experiment.
EVENTS
An event is a subset of a sample space
It consists of all the elements of the sample
space for which the event occurs
Also, by subset, it mean that any part of a set ,
including the set as a whole and an empty set
which is denoted by that has no element at
all.
Example
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and
red. What are the chances of landing on blue after spinning
the spinner? What are the chances of landing on red?


Definition Example
An experiment is a situation involving
chance or probability that leads to
results called outcomes.
In the problem above, the experiment
is spinning the spinner.
An outcome is the result of a single
trial of an experiment.
The possible outcomes are landing on
yellow, blue, green or red.
An event is one or more outcomes of
an experiment.
One event of this experiment is
landing on blue.
Probability is the measure of how
likely an event is.
The probability of landing on blue is
one fourth.

If A is an event, P (A) is read the probability of A

P (A) = number of favorable outcomes
total number of outcomes
Where 0 P(A) 1
PROBABILITIES OF COMPOUND
EVENTS
When probability involves two or more
events, the events are compounded or
combined in the form of
Unions
Intersections
Complements
UNIONS
The unions of A and B is the subset of
S that contains all the elements that
are either in A, in B or in both. It is
written as A or B and denoted by AUB
using the word or
A
B
INTERSECTION

The intersection of A and B is the subset of
S that contains all the elements that are in
both A and B. It is written as A and B
denoted by AB using the word and,

A
B
COMPLEMENT
The complement of A (A) is the subset
of S that contains all the elements of S
that are not in A.
A
B
Example
There are 48 families in a village. 32 of them have
mango trees, 28 has an guava tress and 15 have
both. A family is selected at random from the
village. Determine the probability that the
selected family has

a)Mango and guava trees
b)Mango or guava tress
c)Neither mango or guava tress


RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
COMPOUND EVENTS

The relationship between compound
events can be classified as:
(1) Mutually exclusive
(2) Not-mutually exclusive
(3) Independent
Mutually exclusive
A
B
If two events cannot occur at the same time, they
are said to be mutually exclusive.
no intersection, an empty set

FORMULA TO FIND NUMBER OF
OUTCOMES IN MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENT
In mutually exclusive events, there is no
common outcome, thus no intersection.
The number of outcomes in the two
mutually exclusive events can be written
as
n(S) = n (A) + n (B)

FORMULA (GENERAL ADDITION RULE)
TO FIND THE PROBABILITY OF
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

P (A or B) =P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B)

Non mutually exclusive
A B
there is common element(s) shared by the two events.
the intersection of the two sets is not an empty set.
FORMULA TO FIND NUMBER OF
OUTCOMES IN NON-MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

In non-mutually exclusive events, there
is/are common outcome/s, thus there is
intersection. The number of outcomes in
the two non-mutually exclusive events
can be written as
n(S) = n (A) + n (B) n (AB)


FORMULA (GENERAL ADDITION
RULE) TO FIND THE PROBABILITY OF
NON- MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

P (A or B) =P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) P (AB)

Example
A student is picked at random from a class. Events K, L, M and N
are defined as:
K = event that the student picked is a boy
L = event that the student picked is a girl
M= event that the student picked wear spectacles
N = event that the student picked does not wears spectacles.

Determine whether the following pairs of events mutually
exclusive?
i)K and L
ii)K and M
iii)L and M

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
DEFINITION 1
The two events are independents if the
occurrence of one of them has no effect on
the occurrences of the other.
Two events A and B are independent if and
only if
P (AB) = P (A). P (B)
Independent Event
A dresser drawer contains one
pair of socks with each of the
following colors: blue, red, yellow,
green and pink. Each pair is folded
together in a matching set. You
reach into the sock drawer and
choose a pair of socks without
looking. You replace this pair and
then choose another pair of
socks. What is the probability that
you will choose the red pair of
socks both times?


MULTIPLICATION RULE TO FIND
THE PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT
EVENTS


P (A and B) =P (A B) = P (A) x P (B)

P (A1 A2 A3 An) = P (A1) x P (A2) x P (A3) x P (An)

Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of an event B in relationship to an
event A is the probability that event B occurs given that event
A has already occurred. The notation for conditional
probability is P(B|A), read as the probability of B given A. The
formula for conditional probability is:
Example 2
A math teacher gave her class two tests. 25% of the class passed
both tests and 42% of the class passed the first test. What
percent of those who passed the first test also passed the
second test?

P(Secon
d|First)
=
P(First
and
Second)
=
0.25
= 0.60 = 60%
P(First) 0.42
Tree Diagram
REPRESENT THE OUTCOMES IN
MUTUALLY AND NON- MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS BY TREE DIAGRAM
A part from using Venn diagram, and addition
rule formula, the outcomes in mutually and non-
mutually exclusive events can be also be
represented by tree diagram.
In addition, the probability of both events can
also be computed by using tree diagram.
An important rule that needs to be remembered
in using tree diagram is the complementary event
concept.
Example
A bag contains 3 black balls and 5 white balls. Paul picks a ball
at random from the bag and replaces it back in the bag. He
mixes the balls in the bag and then picks another ball at
random from the bag.

a) Construct a probability tree of the problem.

b) Calculate the probability that Paul picks:

i) two black balls

ii) a black ball in his second draw