China’s Future Role in the Pacific Rim Trade

of Forest Products

Forest Resources Association, May 2002

Port Angeles, Washington

Håkan Ekström
Wood Resources International Ltd.

Wood Resources
International Ltd.
• The Current Status of Timber Resources

• Use of Industrial Roundwood

• Current Trade of Wood and Paper Products

• Future S/D Balance and Implications on Trade

Wood Resources
International Ltd.
Status of the Timber Resources

• Est. 128 million ha of “forested” land

• Est. 88 million ha of industrial timber

• Est. 35 million ha of plantation forests

• Est. 6 million ha of S/M plantations

Wood Resources
International Ltd.
Probable Timber Supply by Forest Type in 1998
80

70 S/M Rot Plantations

60 Nat/Ext Mgt Forests

50
Million m3

40

30

20

10

0
Conifer Non-conifer
Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd. International Ltd.
 Industrial Roundwood Consumption in 1998

Conifer, pulp Conifer, other ind

Conifer, 6.9% uses
Plyw/veneer 23.1%
8.9%

Non-conifer,
Conifer, sawnwood
sawnwood 11.1%
26.2%

Non-conifer,
Non-conifer, plyw/veneer
Non-conifer, 5.5%
other ind uses board
14.6% 3.6%
Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd.
International Ltd.
 Wood Fiber Consumption by the Pulp Industry
9

7 Chips
6 Roundwood
Million m3

0
Conifer Non-conifer
Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd. International Ltd.
 Est. Probable Supply/ Demand Balance in 1998
80

70

60 Probable Supply

50
Ind Rwd demand
Million m3

40

30

20

10

0
Conifer Non-conifer
Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd. International Ltd.
 Log Imports to China 1990-2001
18

16

14

12 Hardwood
Million m3

10 Softwood
8

0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Wood Resources
Source: FAS and ChinaWood International Ltd.
 Softwood Lumber Imports to China 1997-2001
300

250 1997
1998
1999
200 2000
2001
1000 m3

150

100

50

0
Russia Mongolia NZ Canada US Other

Wood Resources
Source: FAS and ChinaWood International Ltd.
 Pulp & Paper Imports to China 1990-2000
12000

10000
P & Pb
Pulp
8000
1000 tons

6000

4000

2000

0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Wood Resources
Source: APP & PPI International Ltd.
 Changes in Probable Timber Supply 1998-2010
80

70
S/M Rotation plantations
60
Nat/Ext Mgt Forests
Million m3/year

50

40

30

20

10

0
1998 2010 1998 2010
Conifer Non-Conifer
Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd. International Ltd.
 Forecast of Paper & Paperboard Consumption
80

70

60

50
Million tons

40

30

20

10

Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd.
International Ltd.
Industrial Roundwood Demand by Product Area
80

70 1998 2010
60
Million m3 (rwe)

50

40

30

20

10

0
Sawnwood Plywood Composite Wood pulp Other Ind
board Wood

Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd. International Ltd.
 Change in Forest Product Net Trade in 2010
Net Trade in 1998 Req Net Trade in 2010 Change in Net Trade
0

-20
Million m3 (rwe)

-40

-60

-80

-100
Conifer Non-conifer
-120

Wood Resources
Source: Pacific Rim Trade Outlook Study, WRI Ltd. International Ltd.
 Conclusions
There will be:
• Strong economic growth and increased per
capita consumption of forest products.

• Reduced harvests from native forests.

These two factors will cause China to emerge as the

principal conifer import market in the Pacific Rim.

Wood Resources
International Ltd.