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Evaluacin de su Exportacin
2007
Hidroenerga
Gas Natural
Carbn
Derivados
Total
Total Nacional
Hidroenerga
Gas Natural
Carbn
Derivados
Total
TJ / Da
221
287
42
851
1,400
100%
16%
20%
3%
61%
100%
5.1
2.1
7.2
Sector Elctrico
71%
29%
100%
TJ / Da
221
203
23
51
498
36%
44%
41%
5%
10%
100%
Otros Sectores
Hidroenerga
Gas Natural
Carbn
Derivados
Total
TJ / Da
0
84
19
800
903
64%
0%
9%
2%
89%
100%
2015
Crecimiento
5.2%
Hidroenerga
Gas Natural
Carbn
Derivados
Total
Total Nacional
Hidroenerga
Gas Natural
Carbn
Derivados
Total
TJ / Da
288
749
21
1,046
2,104
100%
Sector Elctrico
14%
36%
1%
50%
100%
TJ / Da
288
521
0
0
809
38%
36%
64%
0%
0%
100%
6.3%
Otros Sectores
12.5%
13.3%
12.8%
Hidroenerga
Gas Natural
Carbn
Derivados
Total
TJ / Da
0
228
21
1,046
1,295
62%
0%
18%
2%
81%
100%
4.6%
2,500
TJ / Da
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
Hidro
2,013
Gas Natural
2,014
Carbn
2,015
2,016
Derivados
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
4
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
Hidro
2,013
Gas Natural
2,014
Carbn
2,015
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
Derivados
5
1,200
TJ / Da
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
GGEE
Industria
2,014
GNV
2,015
Otros
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
6
1,000
Milln PC / Da
800
600
400
200
0
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
GGEE
Industria
2,014
GNV
2,015
Otros
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
7
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
GGEE
Industria
2,014
GNV
2,015
Otros
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
8
TJ / Da
500
400
300
200
100
0
2,007
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
Hidro
2,012
2,013
Gas Natural
2,014
Carbn
2,015
Residual
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
Diesel
9
2,008
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
Hidro
Gas Natural
2,014
Carbn
2,015
Residual
2,016
2,017
2,018
2,019
2,020
Diesel
10
Probable
0.67
1.08
4.06
0.10
0.08
3.88
2.70
1.18
Posible
Total
Costa
0.75
1.62
Zocalo
3.18
4.54
Selva
4.19
19.58
Selva Norte
0.07
0.16
Selva Centro
0.19
0.65
0.92
Selva Sur
11.15
3.47
18.50
Lote 88 (Pluspetrol)
8.21
0.21
11.12
Lote 56 (Hunt Oil - Pluspetrol)
2.94
0.79
4.91
Lote 57 (Repsol)
0.27
0.27
Lote 58 (Pluspetrol)
0.18
0.18
Resto
2.02
2.02
Total Pas
11.82
5.80
8.12
25.74
Fuente: Libro Anual de Reservas (DGH-Ministerio de Energa y Minas) 31-12-2007
Nota: Shell descubri lo que hoy se conoce como Lote 88 + 56
11
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
90
116
163
207
244
387
415
447
478
512
542
579
622
646
690
721
747
774
803
833
869
869
869
869
869
869
869
869
869
869
869
77
103
190
252
281
382
492
575
485
524
622
663
781
793
895
981 1,067 1,154 1,240 1,326 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412 1,412
0
0
0
0
0
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
625
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Consumo Anual
Tera Pies Cbicos
Plan Referencial 2005 (Lote 56)
Proyeccin 2008 (DGN)
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
0.033 0.042 0.059 0.076 0.089 0.141 0.151 0.163 0.174 0.187 0.198 0.212 0.227 0.236 0.252 0.264 0.273 0.283 0.293 0.305 0.317 0.317 0.317 0.318 0.317 0.317 0.317 0.318 0.317 0.317 0.317
0.028 0.038 0.069 0.092 0.103 0.139 0.180 0.211 0.177 0.191 0.227 0.243 0.285 0.289 0.327 0.359 0.390 0.421 0.453 0.485 0.515 0.515 0.515 0.517 0.515 0.515 0.515 0.517 0.515 0.515 0.515
Consumo Acumulado
Tera Pies Cbicos
Plan Referencial 2005 (Lote 56)
Proyeccin 2008 (DGN)
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
0.033 0.075 0.134 0.210 0.299 0.441 0.592 0.755 0.930 1.117 1.314 1.526 1.754 1.989 2.241 2.505 2.778 3.061 3.354 3.658 3.975 4.292 4.609 4.927 5.244 5.561 5.878 6.196 6.513 6.830 7.148
0.028 0.066 0.135 0.227 0.330 0.469 0.649 0.859 1.036 1.228 1.455 1.697 1.982 2.272 2.598 2.957 3.347 3.768 4.221 4.706 5.221 5.737 6.252 6.769 7.285 7.800 8.316 8.832 9.348 9.863 #####
11.15 TPC
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
341
262
186
146
123
77
71
65
60
55
51
46
42
40
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
395
296
160
120
106
78
59
50
58
53
44
40
33
32
27
24
21
19
16
14
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Consumo Anual
Tera Pies Cbicos
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
Plan Referencial 2005 (Lote 56) + Exportacin0.033 0.042 0.059 0.076 0.089 0.369 0.380 0.392 0.402 0.415 0.426 0.441 0.455 0.464 0.480 0.493 0.501 0.511 0.521 0.534 0.545 0.545 0.545 0.318 0.317 0.317 0.317 0.318 0.317 0.317 0.317
Proyeccin 2008 (DGN) + Exportacin
0.028 0.038 0.069 0.092 0.103 0.367 0.408 0.439 0.405 0.419 0.455 0.471 0.513 0.518 0.555 0.588 0.618 0.649 0.681 0.714 0.744 0.744 0.744 0.517 0.515 0.515 0.515 0.517 0.515 0.515 0.515
Consumo Acumulado
Tera Pies Cbicos
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
Plan Referencial 2005 (Lote 56) + Exportacin 0.03 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.67 1.05 1.44 1.84 2.26 2.68 3.12 3.58 4.04 4.52 5.02 5.52 6.03 6.55 7.08 7.63 8.17 8.72 9.04 9.35 9.67 9.99 10.31 10.62 10.94 11.26
Proyeccin 2008 (DGN) + Exportacin
0.03 0.07 0.14 0.23 0.33 0.70 1.11 1.54 1.95 2.37 2.82 3.30 3.81 4.33 4.88 5.47 6.09 6.74 7.42 8.13 8.87 9.62 10.36 10.88 11.39 11.91 12.42 12.94 13.46 13.97 14.49
11.15 TPC
2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009 2,010 2,011 2,012 2,013 2,014 2,015 2,016 2,017 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035
Plan Referencial 2005 (Lote 56) + Exportacin 341
262
186
146
123
29
28
26
24
22
21
19
18
16
15
13
12
11
10
9
7
6
5
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Proyeccin 2008 (DGN) + Exportacin
395
296
160
120
106
29
26
23
24
22
19
18
15
14
12
11
9
8
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
12
Proyeccin de Consumos de GN
Consumo Promedio de Gas Natural de Camisea con Exportacin
1,600
1,400
1,000
800
600
400
200
2,035
2,033
2,031
2,029
2,027
2,025
2,023
2,021
2,019
2,017
2,015
2,013
2,011
2,009
2,007
2,005
Milln de PC/da
1,200
Exportacin
13
Proyeccin de Consumos de GN
Consumo Promedio de Gas Natural de Camisea con Exportacin
2,500
1,500
1,000
500
2,035
2,033
2,031
2,029
2,027
2,025
2,023
2,021
2,019
2,017
2,015
2,013
2,011
2,009
2,007
2,005
Milln de PC/da
2,000
Proyeccin de Consumos de GN
Consumo Acumulado de Gas Natural de Camisea con Exportacin
16
14
10
8
6
4
2
2,035
2,033
2,031
2,029
2,027
2,025
2,023
2,021
2,019
2,017
2,015
2,013
2,011
2,009
2,007
2,005
12
2,035
2,034
2,033
2,032
2,031
2,030
2,029
2,028
2,027
2,026
2,025
2,024
2,023
2,022
2,021
2,020
2,019
2,018
2,017
2,016
2,015
2,014
2,013
2,012
2,011
2,010
2,009
2,008
2,007
2,006
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2,005
Aos
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2,035
2,034
2,033
2,032
2,031
2,030
2,029
2,028
2,027
2,026
2,025
2,024
2,023
2,022
2,021
2,020
2,019
2,018
2,017
2,016
2,015
2,014
2,013
2,012
2,011
2,010
2,009
2,008
2,007
2,006
Inicio de Exportacin
2,005
Aos
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sin Exportacin
2,035
2,034
2,033
2,032
2,031
2,030
2,029
2,028
2,027
2,026
2,025
2,024
2,023
2,022
2,021
2,020
2,019
2,018
2,017
2,016
2,015
2,014
2,013
2,012
2,011
2,010
2,009
2,008
2,007
2,006
La Exportacin
Reduce en 50 aos
La Duracin de la Reserva
2,005
Aos
Con Exportacin
18
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Sin Exportacin
2,035
2,034
2,033
2,032
2,031
2,030
2,029
2,028
2,027
2,026
2,025
2,024
2,023
2,022
2,021
2,020
2,019
2,018
2,017
2,016
2,015
2,014
2,013
2,012
2,011
2,010
2,009
2,008
2,007
2,006
La Exportacin
Reduce en 40 aos
La Duracin de la Reserva
2,005
Aos
Con Exportacin
19
Exportacin a Mxico
Lzaro
Crdenas
20
Nov-08
Nov-07
Nov-06
Nov-05
Nov-04
Nov-03
Nov-02
Nov-01
Nov-00
Nov-99
Nov-98
Nov-97
Nov-96
Nov-95
Nov-94
Nov-93
16
14
12
10
21
Costos de Exportacin
Henry Hub - X%
3%
0.40
0.50
1.00
0.80
2.70
22
23
40%
1.8
38%
1.6
36%
1.4
34%
1.2
32%
1.0
30%
0.8
28%
0.6
26%
0.4
24%
0.2
22%
0.0
20%
0
10
12
14
16
18
20
%Regala
24
Nov-08
Nov-07
Nov-06
Nov-05
Nov-04
Nov-03
Nov-02
Nov-01
Nov-00
Nov-99
Nov-98
Nov-97
Nov-96
38%
Nov-95
Nov-94
Nov-93
Regalas Resultantes
Porcentaje de Regalas segn VR
40%
Mercado Interno
36%
Mercado LNG
34%
32%
30%
28%
26%
25
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Henry Hub
Net Back
Precio Valorizacin
Neto Per
-0
8
ov
N
-0
7
ov
N
-0
6
ov
N
-0
5
ov
N
-0
4
N
ov
-0
3
ov
N
-0
2
N
ov
-0
1
ov
N
-0
0
ov
N
-9
9
ov
N
-9
8
ov
N
-9
7
ov
N
-9
6
ov
N
-9
5
ov
N
-9
4
ov
N
ov
-9
3
-2
26
27
28
29
30