Los Angeles

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2004 Accelerating.org
Challenges for World Security Policy










John Smart
USAWC, August 2004, Carlisle, PA
Adapting to the Future:
The Impact of Accelerating Change
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2004 Accelerating.org
Systems Theory

Systems Theorists Make Things Simple
(sometimes too simple!)

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
Albert Einstein
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2004 Accelerating.org
Institute for the Study of
Accelerating Change
ISAC (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of scientists,
technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators,
analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and
dissecting accelerating change.

We practice developmental future studies, that is, we seek to
discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent
capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future,
and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary
choices.

Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity,
and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems,
increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy
of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.
Intro to Future Studies
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2004 Accelerating.org
Four Types of Future Studies
Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art)
Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans)
Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations)
Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends)
The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and
singularity studies
It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses
Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous,
miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a
fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend.
Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address.

Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Observation 1:
The Prediction Wall
The faster change goes, the shorter-term our average
business plans. Ten-year plans (1950's) have been
replaced with ten-week (quarterly) plans (2000's).
Future appears very contingent, on average.
There is a growing inability of human minds to
imagine some aspects of our future, a time that must
apparently include greater-than-human technological
sophistication and intelligence.
Judith Berman, in "Science Fiction Without the
Future," 2001, notes that even most science fiction
writers have abandoned attempts to portray the
accelerated technological world of fifty years hence.
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2004 Accelerating.org
Observation 2:
The Prediction Crystal Ball
What does hindsight tell us
about prediction?

The Year 2000 was the
most intensive long range
prediction effort of its time,
done at the height of the
forecasting/ operations
research/ cybernetics/
think tank (RAND) driven/
instrumental rationality
era of future studies

(Kahn & Wiener, 1967).
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2004 Accelerating.org
Lesson 1: Forecasting in certain domains of
the modern environment is highly predictable
Example: Information and Communication Technologies
Evaluating the predictions of The Year 2000,
technology roadmapper Richard Albright notes:
Forecasts in computers and communication stood
out as about 80% correct, while forecasts in all other
fields (social, political, etc.) were judged to be
less than 50% correct.
Why? Here TY2000 used trend extrapolation (simple).
The major ICT change they missed was morphological
(nonsimple) the massive network transition, to
decentralized vs. centralized computing.
Richard Albright, What can Past Technology Forecasts Tell Us About the Future?,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Jan 2002
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2004 Accelerating.org
Many Technology-Related Transformations
are Amazingly Predictable
Miniaturization (per linear dimension)
Price Performance in Computing (Moores Law)
Input-Output, Storage, Bandwidth
Network Node Density (Poors Law)
Protein Structure Solution (Dickersons Law)
Algorithmic Efficiency (Statistical NLP, etc.)
Software Performance (6 year doubling)
Economic Growth (2-4% year, over long spatial scales)

Thought Question: Is annual economic growth
a function of exponential technological surprise
interfacing with human expectation?
(Remember: Efficient market hypothesis in
Economics would predict zero annual growth)
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2004 Accelerating.org
Relative Growth Rates are Also
Amazingly Predictable
Brad DeLong (2003) noted that memory density predictably
outgrows microprocessor density, which predictably outgrows
wired bandwidth, which predictably outgrows wireless.
Expect: 1
st
: New Storage Apps, 2
nd
: New Processing Apps, 3
rd
: New
Communications Apps, 4
th
: New Wireless Apps
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Some Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are
Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles
There are many natural cycles:
Political-Economic Pendulum,
Boom-Bust, War-Peace
Ray Kurzweil first noted that a
generalized, century-long Moores
Law was unaffected by the U.S.
Great Depression of the 1930s.
Conclusion: Human-discovered,
Not human-created complexity here.
Not that many intellectual or physical
resources are required to keep us on
the accelerating developmental
trajectory. (MEST compression
is a rigged game.)
Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999
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2004 Accelerating.org
Lesson 2: Both Social and Developmental
Factors Determine Forecasting Expertise
Professional futurists Joseph Coates, John Mahaffie,
and Andy Hines, a broad literature review, note:
In reviewing the 54 areas (in science and technology) in which we
gathered forecasts, four clearly stood out as the best: aerospace,
information technology, manufacturing, and robotics.
They also note:
In aerospace and information technology, there is widespread
interest and governmental emphasis on forecasts In other
fields, such as economics and basic mathematics, there is little or
nothing [in forecasting the futures of the field, vs. using the field for
forecasts].
Q: What causes this selective interest?
Joseph Coates, John Mahaffie, Andy Hines, Technological Forecasting: 1970-1993,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1994
Accelerating Systems Theory
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2004 Accelerating.org
Something Curious Is Going On
Unexplained.
(Dont look for this in your physics or information theory texts)
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Brief History of Accelerating Change
Billion
Years Ago
12 Big Bang (MEST)
11.5 Milky Way (Atoms)
8 Sun (Energy)
4.5 Earth (Molecules)
3.5 Bacteria (Cell)
2.5 Sponge (Body)
0.7 Clams (Nerves)
0.5 Trilobites (Brains)
0.2 Bees (Swarms)
0.100 Mammals
0.002 Humans, Tools &
Clans Co-evolution
Generations Ago
100,000 Speech
750 Agriculture
500 Writing
400 Libraries
40 Universities
24 Printing
16 Accurate Clocks
5 Telephone
4 Radio
3 Television
2 Computer
1 Internet/e-Mail
0 GPS, CD, WDM
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2004 Accelerating.org
Observation 1:
Tech Interval Time Compression








3 million years ago collective rock throwing; early stone tools
1.5 million years ago lever, wedge, inclined plane
500,000 years ago control of fire
50,000 years ago bow and arrow; fine tools
5,000 years ago wheel and axle; sail
500 years ago printing press with movable type; rifle
50 years ago commercial digital computers
10 years ago commercial internet
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2004 Accelerating.org
Obs. 2: Continuous Tech Innovation
(Even in 400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Technological or Sociotechnological Innovation Date (A.D.), Location

Alchemy (pre-science) develops a wide following 410, Europe
Constantinople University 425, Turkey
Powers and Roots (Arybhata) 476, India
Heavy plow; horse shoes; practical horse harness 500, Europe
Wooden coffins (Alemanni) 507, Germany
Draw looms (silk weaving) 550, Egypt
Decimal reckoning 595, India
Canterbury Monastery/University 598, England
Book printing 600, China
Suan-Ching (Science Encyclopedia) 619, China
Originum Etymologiarum Liibri XX (Sci. Encyc.) 622, Spain
First surgical procedures 650, India
Water wheel for milling (Medieval energy source) 700, Europe
Stirrup arrives in Europe from China 710, Europe
Early Chemistry (Abu Masa Dshaffar) 720, Mid-East
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Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Medicine, Astronomy, Math, Optics, Chemistry 750, Arab Spain
Hanlin Academy 750, China
Pictorial Book Printing 765, Japan
Iron and smithing become common; felling ax 770, Europe
Chemistry (Jabir) 782, Mid-East
Mayan Acropoli (peak) 800, Mexico
Algebra (Muhammed al Chwarazmi) 810, Persia
Ptolemaic Astronomy; Soap becomes common 828, Europe
Rotary grindstone to sharpen iron 834, Europe
Paper money 845, China
Salerno University 850, Italy
Iron becomes common; Trebuchets 850, Europe
Astrolabe (navigation) 850, Mid-East
Angkor Thom (city) 860, Cambodia
New Mathematics and Science (Jahiz, Al-Kindi) 870, Mid-East
Viking shipbuilding 900, Europe
Paper arrives in Arab world 900, Egypt
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2004 Accelerating.org
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Salerno Medical School 900, Italy
Linens and woolens 942, Flanders
First European bridges 963, England
Arithmetical notation brought to Europe by Arabs 975, Europe
1,000 volume encyclopedia 978, China
First Mayan and Tiuanaco Civilizations 1000, Cent./S.America
Horizontal loom 1000, Europe
Astrolabe arrives in Europe 1050, Europe
Greek medicine arrives in Europe (Constantine) 1070, Europe
Water-driven mechanical clock 1090, China
Antidotarum (2650 medical prescriptions) 1098, Italy
Bologna University 1119, Italy
Mariner's compass 1125, Europe
Town charters granted (protecting commerce) 1132, France
Al-Idrisi's "Geography" 1154, Italy
Oxford University 1167, England
Vertical sail windmills 1180, Europe
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Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Glass mirrors 1180, England
Second Mayan Civilization 1190, Cent. America
Cambridge University 1200, England
Arabic numerals in Europe (Leonardo Fibonacci) 1202, England
Tiled roofs 1212, England
Cotton manufacture 1225, Spain
Coal mining 1233, England
Roger Bacon, our first scientist (Opus; Communia) 1250, England
Goose quill writing pen 1250, Italy
The inquisition begins using instruments of torture 1252, Spain
Tradesman guilds engage in street fighting over turf 1267, England
Toll roads 1269, England
Human dissection 1275, England
Wood block printing; spectacles 1290, Italy
Standardization of distance measures (yard, acre) 1305, England
Use of gunpowder for firearms (Berthold Schwarz) 1313, Germany
Sawmill; wheelbarrow; cannon (large and hand) 1325, Europe
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2004 Accelerating.org
Continuous Tech Innovation
(400-1400 A.D., Fall of Rome to Black Plague)
Pisa and Grenoble Universities; Queens College 1330, Europe
First scientific weather forecasts (William Merlee) 1337, England
Mechanical clock reaches Europe 1354, France
Blast furnaces; cast iron explodes across Europe 1360, Europe
Steel crossbow first used in war 1370, Europe
Vienna, Hiedelberg, and Cologne Universities 1380, Europe
Incorporation of the Fishmonger's Company 1384, England
Johann Gutenberg, inventor of mass printing, born 1396, Germany

Lesson: Tech innovation appears to be a developmental process,
independent of Wars, Enlightenments, Reformations, Inquisitions,
Crusades, Subjugations, and other aspects of our cyclic
evolutionary ideological, cultural, and economic history.
Tech advances are something we consistently choose, even
unconsciously, regardless of who is in power, because they have
strong "non-zero sum" effects on human aspirations.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Moore's Law - Miniaturization
Processing, Storage, ...
Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months
Metcalf's Law - Interconnection
Economic value of a network increases as the square of
the number of connections
Gilder's Law - Quantization
Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months
Negroponte's Law - Digitization
Superiority of "bits over atoms"
Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where
ideas are ultimate raw material
Smith's Law - Simulation
Alvy Ray Smith, Microsoft Research (to Howard Rheingold)
Reality is 80 million polygons a second.
A demand saturation threshold, like CPUs and
productivity apps (which human-saturated in 1990s).
No market saturation until we reach this point
Many Capacity-Based Meta-Trends in
and Thresholds in Tech Acceleration
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Transistor Doublings (2 years)
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
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2004 Accelerating.org
Processor Performance (1.8 years)
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years)
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
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2004 Accelerating.org
Many Unexpected Physical Processes are
Moores-Related, e.g. Dickersons Law
Richard Dickerson,
1978, Cal Tech:

Protein crystal
structure solutions
grow according to
n=exp(0.19y1960)
Dickersons law predicted 14,201 solved crystal
structures by 2002. The actual number (in online
Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more.
Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.

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2004 Accelerating.org
Hans Moravec, Robot, 1999
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Henry Adams, 1909:
The First Singularity Theorist
The final Ethereal
Phase would last
only about four
years, and
thereafter "bring
Thought to the
limit of its
possibilities."
Wild speculation
or computational
reality?
Still too early to
tell, at present.

Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
The Technological Singularity:
2
nd
Order Envelope of S-Curves?
Each unique physical-
computational substrate
appears to have its own S-
shaped capability curve.

The information inherent in
these substrates is apparently
not made obsolete, but is
instead incorporated into the
developmental architecture of
the next emergent system.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Eldredge and Gould
(Biological Species)




Paretos Law (The 80/20 Rule)
(income distribution technology, econ, politics)
Rule of Thumb: 20% Punctuation (Development)
80% Equilibrium (Evolution)
Suggested Reading:
For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma
For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More
Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology,
Technology, Economics, Politics)
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2004 Accelerating.org
Saturation: A Biological Lesson
How S Curves Get Old
Resource limits in a niche
Material
Energetic
Spatial
Temporal
Competitive limits in a niche
Intelligence/Info-Processing

Curious Facts:
1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational
substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last
2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition
Result: No apparent limits to the acceleration of local intelligence,
interdependence, and immunity in new substrates over time.

Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
P.E. Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium
is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy
While we gamely try unpredictable evolutionary strategies
to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and
resiliency, these dont always work. What is certain
is that successful solutions always increase MEST
efficiency, they do more, better, with less.
Strategies to capitalize on this:
Teach efficiency/OR as a civic and business skill.
Look globally to find most resource-efficient solutions.
Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency.
Build a culture that rewards MEST refinements.

Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System, Copied in LA.
Open Source Software. Last years mature technologies.
Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S., send to ENs.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Saturation Example 1:
Total World Population
Positive
feedback loop:
Agriculture,
Colonial
Expansion,
Economics,
Scientific Method,
Industrialization,
Politics,
Education,
Healthcare,
Information
Technologies, etc.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
So What Stopped the Growth?
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Saturation Example 2:
Total World Energy Use
DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in
the 1970s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since.
Saturation factors:
1. Major conservation after 1973-74 oil shocks
2. Stunning MEST efficiency of each new
generation of technological system
3. Saturation of human population, and of
human needs for tech transformation
Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state
lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the
world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years.
Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand.
Expect such MEST efficiencies to be multiplied dramatically in
coming years. Technology is becoming more energy-effective in
ways very few of us currently understand.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
End of Fossil Fuels?
Dont Hold Your Breath
Hydrogen, Solar, and other renewables may well turn out to have
been an unachievable dream, like Nuclear Powered Houses and
20
th
Century Mars Colonies. Promising on paper but ruthlessly
outcompeted by accelerating MEST efficiencies in older, mature
legacy technologies, like zero emission fossil fuel combustion,
carbon sequestration, nanofiltration (desalination, etc.).

China is pioneering coal liquefaction and nuclear power. China,
Australia, Canada, several others are very coal-rich nations.
Natural gas conversion is now down to $40/barrel.
We have hundreds of years of planetary NG reserves, at least a
thousand years of proven coal reserves, and (theoretically) similar
methane hydrate and deep ocean oil reserves.

Bucky Fuller was right. Energy is so plentiful on Earth it is becoming
steadily less geopolitically important, as the economy etherealizes
(virtualizes). Old paradigm.
The Theory of
Evolutionary Development
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Evolution vs. Development
The Twins Thumbprints
Consider two identical twins:
Thumbprints Brain wiring
Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns.
Development creates the predictable global patterns.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding Development
Just a few thousand
developmental genes ride
herd over all that molecular
evolutionary chaos.
Yet two genetic twins look, in
many respects, identical.
How is that possible?
Theyve been tuned, cyclically,
for a future-specific
convergent emergent order,
in a stable development
environment.
Origination of Organismal Form, Mller and Newman, 2003
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2004 Accelerating.org
Cambrian Explosion
C
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Selection/Emergence/
Phase Space Collapse/
MEST Collapse
Development
Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since!
Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication).
Body/brain plans: eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.
Invertebrates
Vertebrates
Bacteria
Insects
Multicellularity
Discovered
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Memetic Evolutionary Development
C
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I
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Selection, Convergence
Convergent Selection
MEST Compression
Development
Replication, Variation
Natural Selection
Pseudo-Random Search
Evolution
Variations on this ev. dev. model have been proposed for:
Neural arboral pruning to develop brains (Edelman, Neural Darwinism, 88)
Neural net connections to see patterns/make original thoughts (UCSD INS)
Neural electrical activity to develop dominant thoughts (mosaics, fighting
for grossly 2D cortical space) (Calvin, The Cerebral Code, 1996)

Input to a neural network starts with chaos (rapid random signals), then
creates emergent order (time-stable patterns), in both artificial and biological
nets. Validity testing: Hybrid electronic/lobster neuron nets (UCSD INS)
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
The Left and Right Hands of
Evolutionary Development
C
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Selection & Convergence
Convergent Selection
Emergence,Global Optima
MEST-Compression
Standard Attractors
Development
Replication & Variation
Natural Selection
Adaptive Radiation
Chaos, Contingency
Pseudo-Random Search
Strange Attractors
Evolution
Right Hand Left Hand
Well-Explored Phase Space Optimization New Computatl Phase Space Opening
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2004 Accelerating.org
RVISC Life Cycle of
Evolutionary Development
Replication
Spacetime stable structure, transmissible partially by internal
(DNA) template and partially by external (universal
environmental) template. Templates are more internal with time.
Variation
Ability to encode requisite variety of adaptive responses to
environmental challenges, to preserve integrity, create novelty.
Interaction (Complex, Spacetime Bounded)
Early exploration of the phase space favors natural selection, full
exploration (canalization) favor developmental selection.
Selection (Natural/Evolutionary Selection)
Information-producing, randomized, chaotic attractors.
Convergence (Developmental Selection)
MEST-efficient, optimized, standard attractors.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins
(Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development)
The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each
taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths
predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST
compression), the attractors at the bottom of each basin.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
How Many Eyes Are
Developmentally Optimal?
Evolution tried this experiment.
Development calculated an operational optimum.

Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, certain skinks) still
have a parietal (pineal) vestigial third eye.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Optimization and MEST Efficiency:
The Promise of Operations Research
Is a Four Wheeled Automobile an Inevitable
Developmental Attractor?









Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device.
Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis
Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid
forms as a standard attractor.
A number of small dinosaurs
(raptors and oviraptors) developed
bipedalism, binocular vision,
complex hands with opposable
thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios
equivalent to modern birds. They
were intelligent pack-hunters of
both large and small animals
(including our mammalian
precursors) both diurnally and
nocturnally. They would likely
have become the dominant
planetary species due to their
superior intelligence, hunting, and
manipulation skills without the K-T
event 65 million years ago.

Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Why is Upright Posture
Energetically More Efficient?
Observation: The smartest bioorganisms are slow-moving bipeds.
Once a species is culturally computing using behavioral mimicry (and
later, sounds), in high-density living environments, and using mimicry
defenses like collective rock throwing at 80 mph (which requires
opposable thumbs and strong arms), such favored species no longer need
to be fast, thick-skinned, or sharp-taloned.
From this point forward, they can optimize computation by moving more
densely and slowly on average, within their newest phase space for
evolutionary development: mimicry and memetic culture.
Theory: Our once-horizontal backs have only very recently been coaxed
into an almost always upright position, for maximum hand manipulation
ability, hence the "scoliosis curve" of our lower back with its pains.
In the modern world niche, we spend most of our days physically inactive
inside large boxes (now mainly in front of electronic boxes), or moving
between boxes inside smaller wheeled boxes, while our collective
computations flow across the planet at the speed of light.
The brains of our electronic successors (not their sensors and effectors) will
most certainly be even more immobile still, if the developmental singularity
hypothesis is correct.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Challenge in Managing
Technological Development
Since the birth of civilization, humanity has been
learning to build special types of technological systems
that are progressively able to do more for us, in a more
networked and resilient fashion, using less resources
(matter, energy, space, time, human and economic
capital) to deliver any fixed amount of complexity,
productivity, or capability.

We are faced daily with many possible evolutionary
choices in which to invest our precious time, energy, and
resources, but only a few optimal developmental
pathways will clearly "do more, and better, with less."
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development:
Yin and Yang
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Evolution and Development:
Two Universal Systems Processes
Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting
models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that
both processes have explanatory value in different contexts.

The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate.
Evolution
Chance
Randomness
Variety/Many
Possibilities
Uniqueness
Uncertainty
Accident
Bottom-up
Divergent
Differentiation
Development
Necessity
Determinism
Unity/One
Constraints
Sameness
Predictability
Design (self-organized or other)
Top-Down
Convergent
Integration
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Evo-Devo Provides
Reasons for Polarities
Evolution

Creativity
Novelty-Seeking
Female
Right Brain
Democratic
Freedom
Experimentation
Play
Entropy Creation
Watch a Movie at 1am
Sleep at 1pm
Development

Discovery
Truth-Seeking
Male
Left Brain
Republican
Justice
Optimization
Work
Entropy Density Maximization
Sleep at 1am
Watch a Movie at 1pm
We each have both of these qualities. Best use always
depends on context. Use them both! Keep the balance!
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Political Polarities:
Generativity vs. Sustainability
Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to
Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability




Developmental sustainability without generativity creates
sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive
weakness (e.g., Maoism).
Evolutionary generativity without sustainability creates
chaos, entropy, a degradation that is not natural
recycling (e.g., Anarchocapitalism).
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Human Migration Patterns and
Large Land Mammal Extinctions
Gone:
Bison
Flightless Birds
Elephants
Lions
Marsupial Tigers
Etc.
We depleted the
easiest fuel first.
Everywhere.
Likely a
computationally
optimal strategy.
Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994


Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Rise and Fall of Complex Societies
Mesopotamia, Cradle of Civilization (Modern
Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians)
6000 BC 500 BC. Mineral salts from
repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated
farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more.




Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Rise and Fall: Nabatea
Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC 400 CE (Jordan:
trading experts, progressively wood-depleted
overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows)

Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994
Rock Hyrax
(burrows are
vegetation
time capsules)
Los Angeles
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2004 Accelerating.org
Rise and Fall: Anasazi
Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 1200
CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and
industry hubs, wood depleted (100,000 timbers used in
CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde).
No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech.
Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, CO Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion
(Phase I: Near East-to-West)
Babylonian Egyptian (New Kingdom) Hellennistic (Alexander)
Roman
British
Spanish
French
Austria
Germany
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion
(Phase II: West-to-Far East)
American
Japan
(Temporary: Pop density,
Few youth, no resources.
East Asian Tigers
(Taiwan
Hong Kong
South Korea
Singapore)
India

China
Expect a Singapore-style Autocratic Capitalist
transition. Population control, plentiful resources,
stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital.
U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year.
Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now.
BHR-1, 2002
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Subtle Lessons:
Life Cycles of Dominant Cultures
Each culture burns through its resource base (wood, farmland,
population, natural resources) as fast as it can, creating as much
innovation as it can.
Even civilizations go through growth, maturity, decline, and
renewal.
The more powerful technology gets, the less painful and
environmentally impactful this natural renewal/rebirth cycle.
(Example: Japan doesnt collapse, only suffers a decade of
malaise, even as it gets technologically greener every year.)

Key Question: Why is a civilization life cycle apparently
the optimal evolutionary developmental strategy?
Assumption: Weve seen this pattern for too long, and
in too many contexts, for it to be suboptimal.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Life Cycles: Further Thoughts
Compare and Contrast:
universes, stars, complex
planets, life forms,
civilizations, cities,
technologies, states of mind.
The more complex a system becomes, the more MEST
efficient and information-protective the life cycle.
Consider species extinction vs. cultural extinction (and
digital capture).
When was the last time the death of a less adaptive
thought in your mind was seen as wasteful or disruptive?
Stellar Life Cycle
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Simplicity and Complexity
Universal Evolutionary Development is:
Simple at the Boundaries, Complex In Between
Simple Math
Of the Very Small
(Big Bang,
Quantum Mechanics,
Chemistry)

Simple Math
Of the Very Large
(Classical Mechanics,
General Relativity)
Complex Math
Of the I n Between
(Chaos, Life, Humans,
Coming Technologies)
Ian Stewart, What Shape is a Snowflake?, 2001
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Complex systems
are evolutionary.
Simple systems
are developmental.
The universe is painting complex local evolutionary pictures, on a
simple universe-wide developmental scaffolding.
The picture (canvas/intelligence, in the middle) is
mathematically complex (Gdelian incomplete),
and trillions of times evolutionarily unique.

The framework (easel/cosmic structure, very large,
& paint/physical laws, MEST structure, very small)
is uniform, and simple to understand.
The Meaning of Simplicity
(Wigners ladder)
Evolution Development
Non-Pattern Pattern
Variety Uniformity
Symmetry and
Supersymmetry
Symmetry
Breaking
Chaotic Math Simple Math
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Our Universe Has an Evolutionary
Developmental Purpose
The more we study the dual processes of Evo-Devo, the
better we discover the simple background, and can
create a complex foreground. Take Home Points:
Evolutionary variation is generally increasing and
becomes more MEST efficient with time and substrate.
Development (in special systems) is on an accelerating
local trajectory to an intelligent destination.
Humans are both evolutionary & developmental actors,
creating and catalyzing a new substrate transition.
We need both adequate evolutionary generativity,
(uniqueness) and adequate developmental
sustainability (accelerating niche construction) in this
extraordinary journey.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding the Bifurcation
Prediction Wall is Evolutionary Change




Prediction Crystal Ball is Developmental Change
Examples of
Hierarchical Emergence
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Cosmic Embryogenesis
(in Three Easy Steps)
Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)

Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)

Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Le Phnomne Humain, 1955
Pierre Tielhard de Chardin
(1881-1955)

Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist,
Developmental Systems Theorist

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Eight Useful Systems For Universal
Computation (a.k.a. Substrates)
Substrate I.P. System

1. Galactic-Subatomic "Galactic"
2. Stellar-Elemental "Atomic"
3. Planetary-Molecular "Chemetic"
4. Biomass-Unicellular "Genetic"
5. Neurologic-Multicellular "Dendritic"
6. Cultural-Linguistic "Memetic"
7. Computational-Technologic "Algorithmic
8. AI-Hyperconscious "Technetic"

Note: Each is Vastly More MEST-Compressed and IP-Enabled
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Every Substrate Has its Niche
Niche Construction, Odling-Smee, Laland, Feldman, 2004
The entire evolutionary history of life
involves each organisms increasingly
intelligent (value driven) modification
of their niche, and environmental
responses to these changes.

Organisms do not simply 'adapt' to
preexisting environments, but actively
change and construct the world in which
they live. Not until Niche Construction,
however, has that understanding been
turned into a coherent structure that brings
together observations about natural history
and an exact dynamical theory.

Richard Lewontin, Harvard

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Niches are Increasingly Local in Spacetime
Biogenesis required a cooling Earth-crust, and billennia.
Multicellular organisms required a Cambrian Explosion,
and millennia.
Human culture required a Linguistic Explosion, and tens
of thousands of years.
Science and technology revolutions required a Cultural
Enlightenment, the decomposing biomass of a fraction of
Earths dead organisms, and hundreds of years.
Intelligent computers will likely be able to model the birth
and death of the universe with the refuse thrown away
annually by one American family. In tens of years?
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Five Astrobiologically Developmental
Systems for Human Computation?
Individual (Vitality,Creativity,Spirituality)
Family/Relationship (Culture,Psychology)
Tribal/Nation (Politics,Economics)
Species/Planet (Peace,Globalization,Environment)
Universal (Science,Technology,Computation)
Question: Which is unlike the others? This last
system is growing apparently asymptotically in
local capacities
These five systems/dialogs seem likely to exist
on all Earth-like planets (e.g., astrobiologically
developmental).

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Three Hierarchical Systems
of Social Change
Sociotechnological (dominant since 1950!)
Its all about the technology (what it enables, how
inexpensively it can be developed)
Economic (dominant 1800-1950s, secondary now)
Its all about the money (who has it, control they gain with it)
Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800s, tertiary now)
Its all about the power (who has it, control they gain with it)
Developmental Trends:
1. The levels have reorganized, to fastest first.
2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level.
Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGOs, rise of the power
of media, tort law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.


Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Developmental Spiral
Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 yrs ago
Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs
Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 yrs
Agricultural Age 7,000 yrs
Empires Age 2,500 yrs
Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770)
Industrial Age 180 yrs (1770-1950)
Information Age 70 yrs (1950-2020)
Symbiotic Age 30 yrs (2020-2050)
Autonomy Age 10 yrs (2050-2060)
Tech Singularity 2060
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Gently Tightening Subcycles
1390-1500, 110 yrs
1500-1600, 100 yrs
1600-1690, 90 yrs
1690-1770, 80 yrs
1770-1840, 70 yrs
1840-1900, 60 yrs
1900-1950, 50 yrs
1950-1990, 40 yrs
1990-2020, 30 yrs
2020-2040, 20 yrs
2040-2050, 10 yrs
2050-2060, 5/2/1

Circa 2060
Pre-Scientific Rev.
1
st
Scientific Rev.
2
nd
Scientific Rev.
3
rd
Scientific Rev.
1
st
Industrial Rev.
2
nd
Industrial Rev.
3
rd
Industrial Rev.
1
st
Computer Rev.
2
nd
Computer Rev.
1
st
Symbiotic Rev.
2
nd
Symbiotic Rev.
Autonomy Revs

Tech Singularity
Oresme, Coord.Geom., Series
Copernicus, Vesalius
Bruno, Kepler, Descartes
Newton, Linnaeus
CWT: Coal, Wood, Textiles
SST: Steam,Steel,Telegrph
ICE: Int.Comb,Chem, Electr
Dig.Comp,Engrg,MNCs,TV
Planetnet, MIME, Security
GUI,LUI,NUI, Peace/Justice
Coll. Intell., Minor Magic
Autonomy-Under-the-Hood

AI,Earthpark(Next:Uploads)
Period Subcycle Some Features
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles?
A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020
1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd
gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins.
A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040
LUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation,
Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades.
A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050
LUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature
Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing.
2050: Era of Strong Autonomy
Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles,
each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Tech Singularity Overview
Circa 2060: Technological Singularity
The AI (shortly thereafter, AI's) claim self-
awareness. True, 3rd-gen uploading begins.
World population hits its maximum (2030-2050),
declines increasingly rapidly thereafter.
2040
1970
Warren Sanderson, Nature, 412, 2001
Tom McKendree, Hughes Aircraft, 1994
The Envelope Curve is
Local Universal Computation
Any Fixed-Complexity
Replicating Substrate
(e.g. Homo Sapiens)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Types of Singularities
Mathematical
Physical
Cosmological (our best model?)
Computational
Developmental (our best model?)
Technological
"singular" human-competitive A.I. Emergence
discontinuous (physical-dynamical singularity)
unknowable (computational-cognitive singularity)
convergent (developmental singularity)
hierarchical (developmental singularity)
instantaneous (developmental singularity)
reproductive (developmental singularity)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Finite-Time Singularities
PDEs of General Relativity in a mass field, leading to
black hole formation
PDEs of Euler equations of inviscid fluids in relation
to turbulence
Rotating coin spinning down to a table (Eulers disk)
Earthquakes (ex: slip-velocity Ruina-Dieterich friction
law and accelerating creep)
Micro-organism chemotaxis models (aggregation to
form fruiting bodies)
Stock market crashes (as catastrophic events).
Source: Didier Sornette, Critical Phenomena in the Natural Sciences, 1999
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Finite-Time
Singularities
Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003

Singularity 2050 10 years
The Singularity is Near, 2005

Singularity 2050 20 years
Ray Kurzweil
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Macrohistorical Finite-Time
Singularities (contd)
The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998

Singularity 2130 20 years
Trees of Evolution, 2000

Singularity 2080 30 years
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
From the Big Bang to Complex Stars:
The Decelerating Phase of Universal ED
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology:
The Accelerating Phase of Universal ED
Carl Sagans
Cosmic
Calendar
(Dragons of
Eden, 1977)

Each month is
roughly 1
billion years.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
A U-Shaped Curve of Change?
Big Bang Singularity
100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap.
1B yrs: Protogalaxies 8B yrs: Earth
100,000 yrs: Matter
50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds
Developmental Singularity?
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Eric Chaissons Phi ():
A Universal Moores Law Curve
Free Energy Rate Density
Substrate (ergs/second/gram)

Galaxies 0.5
Stars 2 (counterintuitive)
Planets (Early) 75
Plants 900
Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4)
Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5)
Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5)
Int. Comb. Engines (10^6)
Jets (10^8)
Pentium Chips (10^11)
Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001

time
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Just what exactly are black holes?
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Lee Smolins Answer:
Cosmological Natural Selection
At least 8 of the 20 standard model
universal parameters appear tuned for:
black hole production
multi-billion year old Universes
(capable of creating Life)

The Life of the Cosmos, 1996
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Post 2060
Full AI Sim of Human Thoughtspace (ref.: Our multimillion
dollar sims of bacterial metabolome)
Historical Computational Closure (astronomy, geography,
brains, etc.). Maps rapidly close the very large and very
small, leaving only the very complex






"Inner space," not outer space, now appears to be our constrained
developmental destiny, incredibly soon in cosmologic time. "
Developmental Singularity Overview
For astronomical closure, see Martin Harwit, Cosmic Discovery, 1981
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Physics of a MESTI Universe
Physical Driver:
MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density

Emergent Properties:
Information Intelligence (World Models)
Information Interdepence (Ethics)
Information Immunity (Resiliency)
Information Incompleteness (Search)

An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory:
Entropy = Negentropy
Universal Energy Potential is Conserved.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Binding Energy (of Computational Structure)
Systems theorist Ervin Laszlo (Evolution, 1987) notes each hierarchically
emergent universal substrate greatly decreases the binding energy of its
diverse (evolutionary) physical configurations. Examples:
matter (earliest emerging physical substrate), e.g., protons and neutrons
within the nucleus of atoms, is bound by nuclear exchange ("strong") forces
atoms are joined by much weaker ionic or covalent (electromagnetic) bonds
cells within multicellular organisms are connected "another dimension down
the scale of bonding energy."
memes encoded in a vesicular-morphologic language of synaptic weights and
dendritic arborization involve vastly less binding energy still
technemes, in communicable electronically-encoded algorithms and logic
circuitry involve orders of magnitude less binding energy yet again.
gravitons. Note gravity is the 2
nd
weakest of the five known forces (only dark
energy is weaker). Yet in Smolins model gravity guides us to black holes as a
developmental attractor for substrate computation in this universe.

In other words, the MEST efficiency, or energy cost of computation, of
learning (encoding, remembering, reorganizing) rapidly tends to zero in
emergent substrates as we approach the developmental singularity.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Growth and Limits of Computation
Universal Computing to Date: 10^120 logical ops
Turing, Von Neumann, Ed Fredkin, John Wheeler
Digital Computing to Date: 10^31 logical ops
Half this was produced in the last 2 year doubling.
300 Doublings (600 years) to a Past-Closed
Omega Computer?
Understanding most Developmental History and some of
Evol. History. (e.g., CAs, Gen. Engrg.)
Computing right down to Planck Scale?
No Minimum Energy to Send a Bit (Landauer)
Quantum and Femto-Scale Processes

Sources: Seth Lloyd, Computational Capacity of the Universe, Phys.Rev.Lett., 2002
C. Bennett & R. Landauer, Fund. Phys. Limits of Computation, Sci. Am., July 1985
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding MEST Compression
MEST compression/Time
The Finite
Universe Box
Six Billion
Years Ago
We
End Up
Here
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
A Developmental Universe?
Developmental Lesson: A Possible Destiny of Species

MEST compression, Intelligence, Interdependence, Immunity
Inner Space, Not Outer Space (Mirror Worlds, Age of Sims)
Black Hole Equivalent Transcension?
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Fermi Paradox
So where are the ETs?
Our Milky Way Galaxy is just
45,000 light years in radius.
Earth-like planets 3-5 Billion years
older than us nearer the core.
Andromeda Galaxy
Only 2 mill light yrs away
A Dev. Sing. Prediction:
SETI Fossils by 2080
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Present Score:
13 for Transcension, 2 for Expansion
The Case For Transcension
1. Universal Speed Limit (c), and Isolation of Everything Interesting
2. Singularities Everywhere
3. Hyperspace (Our Universe is a Riemann Manifold in 4D Space)
4. String and Supersymmetry Theory (10, 11, or 26 Dimensions)
5. Multiverse Theories (CNS, INS)
6. Fermi Paradox (Parsimonious Transcension Solution)
7. Relentless MEST Compression of Substrate Emergence
8. Technological Singularity Hypothesis
9. Plenty of Room at the Bottom (Richard Feynman about Nanotech)
10. Bottom is Strange (Quantum Weirdness), But Stably Convergent!
11. A Non-Anthropomorphic Future
12. Lambda Universe Message (The Kerrigan Problem. "Why Now?")
13. Midpoint Principle (Subset of Cosmic Watermark Hyp./Wigner's Ladder)
The (Highly Suspect) Case for Expansion
1. 3D Space is Suited to Humanity
2. A Comfortable Extrapolation of our Frontier Experience

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Virtual Space:
Is Inner Space the Final Frontier?
Mirror Worlds, David Gelernter, 1998.
Large scale structures in spacetime are:
A vastly slower substrate for evolutionary development
Relatively computationally simple and tractable (transparent)
Rapidly encapsulated by our simulation science
A rear view mirror on the developmental trajectory of
emergence of universal intelligence?




versus


Non-Autonomous ISS Autonomous Human Brain
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Physical Space:
A Transparent Society (Panopticon)
Hitachis mu-chip:
RFID for paper currency

David Brin,
The Transparent Society, 1998

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Ephemeralization (MEST Efficiency of
Physical-Computational Transformations)
In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), the poet and polymath
Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization, positing
that in nature, "all progressions are from material to
abstract" and "every one of the ephemeralization
trends.. eventually hits the electrical stage" such that
"even efficiency (doing more with less) ephemeralizes."
In 1981 (Critical Path), he called ephemeralization, "the invisible
chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-
efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment
of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function
formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the
principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy
per each given level of functional performance This meta-trend has
also been called virtualization by other theorists.
Combined, these statements may be among the first to name MEST
compression/efficiency/density of computational transformations,
the apparent driver of accelerating change in special physical
environments.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Practical Benefit of Understanding MEST
Compression: Developmental Foresight
GDP weight trends down in every developed
country.
More MEST-efficient systems have increased
system dynamism/degrees of structural
freedom (Jack Hipple, TRIZ)
New technological paradigms generally use
dramatically less MEST/capital investment.
(Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno vs. Coal, Steel, and
Oil development). Exception: Some infotech
hardware (chip fab plants, microrobotics, etc.).

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Seeing MEST Efficiency and
Compression Everywhere in the World
Cities (>50% of world population circa 2005)
Working in Offices (or telecommuting with
coming videophone virtual offices)
Wal-Marts, Mega-Stores, 99 Cent Stores
(Retail Endgame: Wal-Mart #1 on Fortune 500
since 2001)
Flat-Pack Furniture (Ikea)
Big Box Retail (Home Depot, Staples)
Supply-Chain & Market Aggregators (Dell,
Amazon, eBay)
Local community/Third Space (Starbucks)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org

Switching is shifting from circuits to packets.
Data, then voice; Backbone, then access
Transmission is shifting from electronic to photonic.
First long haul, then metro, then local access
Functions are moving from the enterprise to the Net.
IP universal protocol/ platform of choice is the Net
Offerings are moving from products to services.
"Utilitization" of processing, applications, storage, knowledge
Bioscience is moving from in vitro to in silico.
First Genomics, then Proteomics, then nanotechnologies

Key Shifts in the Venture Capital Market
Source: Jim Spohrer, IBM Almaden, 2004
(More agent-based, more MEST-compressed, more network-like,
more information-based, more hardware oriented.)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Border monitoring
(low altitude drug flights)
City monitoring
Early warning radar
Urban broadband
Inventor: Hokan Colting
21stCenturyAirships.com
180 feet diameter. Autonomous.
60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles)
Permanent geosynch. location.
Onboard solar and navigation.
A quarter sized receiver dish.

Why are satellites presently losing
against the wired world?

Latency, bandwidth, and launch costs.

MEST compression always wins.
Dont bet against it!

Stratellites:
A Developmental Attractor?
The Future of
Automation and Economics
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
World Economic
Performance
GDP Per Capita in
Western Europe,
1000 1999 A.D.

This curve looks
very smooth on a
macroscopic scale.

The knee of the
curve occurs at the
industrial revolution,
circa 1850.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Understanding Automation
Between 1995 and 2002 the worlds 20 largest economies lost
22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing
to a Service/Information Economy.

1995-02, America lost 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China.
China lost 15 million such jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune)
Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, our
country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since
1992. (Economist)

Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in
mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also
being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by
electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on
shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is
jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we
knew on farms and the assembly line. (Tsvi Bisk)

"The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003
"Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003
The Future of Making a Living, Tsvi Bisk, 2003

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Interface:
Understanding Process Automation
Perhaps 80-90% of today's First World
paycheck is paid for by automation
(tech we tend).
Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in
Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox,
Theory of Economic Growth)
7/8 comes from technical progess.
Human contribution (10-20%) to a First
World job is Social Value of Employment
+ Creativity + Education
Developing countries are next in line
(sooner or later).
Continual education and grants
(taxing the machines) are the final job
descriptions for all human beings.
Termite Mound
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Work in 2050 Scenario:
100:10:1 Tax:Foundation:Corporate Global Philanthropy
As technology-driven corporate GDP grows exponentially at 4% or more
each year, historical analysis argues governments will continue to do by far
the most social contract giving, (100:10:1 govt. to individual to corporate
giving ratio). That would mean that the service work of many, perhaps even
most of our 200 million+ employees (total 2050 pop. of 300-400 million) circa
2050 will be supported by the equivalent of grant proposals to the
government to do various public works, in the same the way our countrys
1.5 million nonprofits presently are supported by government and private
foundation grants today. Thus the 1/6 of us that presently work for (or live
off) the government will likely double by 2050 (European model).

Secondarily, individuals and their foundations, with progressively increased
social leverage due to tech-aided wealth increase, will do more giving each
year. Look to individuals, with their uniquely creative and transformative
giving styles (through foundations, legacy, and discretionary giving) to
usher in an Age of Global Philanthropy in the post-LUI era after 2020.

To recap, while corporations will bring lots of new technology-enabled
wealth into the world, philanthropy will likely continue to be driven first by
governments (100X) then individuals (10X) and finally business (1X).

See: Millionaires and the Millennium, Havens and Schervish, 1999
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Process Automation Example:
Oil Refinery (a Multi-Acre Automatic Factory)
Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators,
each needing only a high school education.
The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Problem: Social Disruption Due to
Technological Revolutions
Manufacturing Globalization Revolution (1980s)
Info Tech (IT) Globalization Revolution (2000s)
LUI Automation Revolution (2020s)

Some jobs that went to Mexican maquiladoras in the
1980s are going to China in the 2000s. Many of these
jobs will go to machines in the 2020s.


What to do?
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Automation Development Creates
Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts
Automating of farming pushed people into
factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today)
Automating of factories is pushing people
into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today)
Automating of service is pushing people into
information tech (2003, 65% of GDP is in service industry)
Automating of IT will push people into
symbiont groups (personality capture)
Automating of symbiont groups will push
people beyond biology (transhumanity)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
ITs Exponential Economics
Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio,
110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1
Automation and the Service Society
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
De Chardin on Acceleration:
Technological Cephalization of Earth
"No one can deny that
a world network of
economic and psychic
affiliations is being woven
at ever increasing speed
which envelops and
constantly penetrates more
deeply within each of
us. With every day that
passes it becomes a little
more impossible for us
to act or think otherwise
than collectively."


Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Phase Transition
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
U.S. Transcontinental Railroad:
Promontory Point Fervor
The Network of the 1880s
Built by hard-working
immigrants
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
IT Globalization Revolution (2000-20):
Promontory Point Revisited
The more things change, the
more some things stay the
same.

The coming intercontinental internet will be built
primarily by hungry young programmers and tech
support personnel in India, Asia, third-world
Europe, Latin America, and other developing
economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals
will outnumber the First World technical support
population between five- and ten-to-one.
Consider what this means for the goals of modern
business and education: Teaching skills for global
management, partnerships, and collaboration.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Technological Globalization: Winners
Globalization is less a choice than a
statistical inevitability, once we have
accelerating, globe-spanning technologies
(communication, databases, travel) on a
planet of finite surface area (sphericity).
There are some clear winners in this phase transition, such as:

Network Memes and Traditions like Free Markets,
Democracy, Peace and other Interdependencies
(The Ideas that Conquered the World, Michael Mandelbaum)
Big Cities (backbone of the emerging superorganism)
(Global Networks, Linked Cities, Saskia Sassen)
Global Corporations (large and small)
(New World, New Rules, Marina Whitman)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Some of the longer term losers:

Non-Network Memes and Traditions like
Autocracy, Fascism, Indefinite Protectionism, Communism
(Power and Prosperity, Mancur Olson)
Centrally-Planned (mostly Top-Down) vs. Market-Driven
(mostly Bottom-Up) Economies (Third World War)
(The Commanding Heights, Daniel Yergin)
(Against the Tide, Douglas Irwin)
Groups or Nations with Ideologies/Religions Sanctioning
Network-Breaking Violence (Fourth World War)
(The Clash of Civilizations, Samuel Huntington)
Centrally-Planned vs. Self-Organizing Political Systems
(excepting critical systems, like Security)
(The Future and Its Enemies, Virginia Postrel)

Technological Globalization: Losers
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Technological Globalization: Uncertains
Most elements of modern society, of course, are evolutionary,
meaning they remain indeterminate actors which may or may
not become winners. Their fate depends critically on the paths
we choose. Some key examples:

Humanist Memes like Justice, Equal Opportunity,
Individual Responsibility, Education, Charity, Compassion,
Cultural Diversity, Sustainability, Religious Tolerance
(The Dignity of Difference, Jonathan Sacks)
The Unskilled Poor (In All Economies, U.S. to Uganda)
(A Future Perfect, Micklethwait and Wooldridge)
The Developing World
(The Mystery of Capital, Hernando de Soto)

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
NBICS: 5 Choices for Strategic
Technological Development
Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology)
Biotech (biotechnology, health care)
Infotech (computing and comm. technology)
Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors)
Sociotech (remaining technology applications)
It is easy to misspend lots of R&D money on a still-early
technology in any field.
Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless
It is even easier to misspend disproportionate amounts of
R&D budgets on a less centrally accelerating field.
Current examples: Nanotech and biotech
Assumption: Any nation today can far more quickly get
substantially better infotech than biotech or nanotech.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Is Biotech a Saturated Substrate?
21
st
century neuropharm and neurotech wont
accelerate biological complexity (seems likely now).
Neural homeostasis fights top-down interventions
Most complex structure in the known universe
Strong resistance to disruptive biointerventions
In-group ethics, body image, personal identity
Well learn a lot, not biologically redesign humans
No human-scale time, ability or reason to do so.
Expect regression to mean (elim. disease) instead.
Neuroscience will accelerate technological complexity
Biologically inspired computing. Structural mimicry.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Computational Limits on
21
st
Century Biotechnology
Biology is Bottom-Up Designed, Massively Multifactorial,
and Nonlinearly Interdependent.
Genetically engrd humans (2000) are atomic vacuum cleaners (1950)

Increased Differentiation = Decreased Intervention
Clipping growth genes into frogs vs. mice vs. pigs. Developmental damage!
Negative pleiotropy increases with complexity.

Our Genetic Legacy Code Appears Highly Conserved
The entire human race is more genetically similar than a single baboon troop.
A massive extinction event circa 70,000 years ago is one proposal for this (ref).
Much more likely is simple developmental path dependency.

Mental Symbolic Manipulation is Deep Differentiation
Wernickes and Brocas are apparent equivalent of metazoan body plans!
(see Terrence Deacon, The Symbolic Species, on co-evolution of lang. & brain)
Even with preadaptation (Gould) & requisite variety (Ashby), drift = dysfunction.

Features of Evol. and Expansion of Modern Humans, Inferred from
Genomewide Microsatellite Markers," Zhivotovsky, 2003, AJHG

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Nanotech and Cognotech are both
AI-Dependent Systems
Key Assumptions:

Nanotech Will Require Bottom-Up,
Biologically-Inspired AI to Realize the full
Drexlerian molecular assember vision
(Erik Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1986).

Cognotech (e.g., human consciousness) will
only expand past its current saturation when
we have nanotech and fine-grained AI
personality capture interfaces
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Infotech and Sociotech Are the Engine and
Driver of the Coming Transition
Infotech (AI):
Process Automation
Storage, Networking, and Simulation
Biologically-Inspired Computing

Sociotech (IA):
Digital Ecologies
Immunity, Compassion, and Interdependence
Linguistic User Interface
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
5 Info- and Socio-technological Levers
for Third World in the 21
st
Century
1. Infotech (Education, Digital Ecologies)
2. Globalization (Education, Bilingualism,
Unique Competitive Advantages)
3. Transparency (Education, Accountability,
Anti-Corruption)
4. Liberalization (Education, Legal and
Democratic Reform)
5. Compassion (Education, Rich-Poor Divides,
NGOs, Workfare, Philanthropy)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Infotech: Digital Ecologies
Radio
Low Power TV
Cell Phones
Newspapers
(Program Guides)
Internet
PDAs
Game PCs
Cordless Phones
Desktop PCs
Key Questions: Public access? Subsidized? Education?
Strong network effects. Intrinsically socially stabilizing.
There is no digital divide. (Cato Institute)
Email
Avatars
Groupware
Social Software
IM/SMS
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. IA)
AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003)
$1B in 93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002
(now mostly commercial). AGR of 12%
U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong
Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing
faster than decision support and agents
Incremental enhancement of existing apps
(online catalogs, etc.)
Computer telephony (CT) making strides
(Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys).
ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs
on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?)
Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI)
Persuasive Computing, and
Personality Capture

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Linguistic User Interface
Googles cache (2002, % non-novel)
Watch Windows 2004 become
Conversations 2020
Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Today: Gmail
Free, search-based webmail service with 1,000
megabytes (1 gigabyte) of storage. Google
search quickly recalls any message you have
ever sent or received. No more need to file
messages to find them again.
All replies to each retrieved email are
automatically displayed (threaded). Relevant
text ads and links to related web pages are
displayed adjacent to email messages.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Tomorrow:
Social Software, Lifelogs
Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything weve ever
typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who dont know it).
Next, well store everything weve ever said. Then
everything weve ever seen. This storage (and
processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in
ways we never dreamed.

Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and
MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of LifeLogs.
Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life
experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other
early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Phase Transitions: Web, Semantic
Web, Social Software, Metaweb
Nova Spivak, 2004
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Robo sapiens
AIST and Kawadas HRP-2

(Something very cool
about this algorithm)
Huey and Louey
Aibo Soccer
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
What Computers Do that Humans Dont
Humans Need Secrecy, Lies, Violence.
They Solve Computational Problems for Us.
(Harold Bloom, The Lucifer Principle). But Computers?
Open-Ended Learning Capacity: Hyperconsciousness
Greater Degrees of Freedom, "Perfect" Retention and Forgetting
Communication of Knowledge Structures, Not Just Language
Maintain Multiple Perspectives Until Data Come In. No Variation Cost.
Computational Ethics: NZS Games, Global Optima
Information Flow Hypothesis of Self (Boundary, Dennett)
Information Flow Hypothesis of Conflict (Rummel, etc.)
Tolerance of Human Beings vs. Human Brains (Minsky, Society of Mind)

Conclusion: AIs Will Be Far More Interdependent,
Ethical, Empathic to Others, & Stable Than
Humans Could Ever Be, By Apparent Design
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
In the long run, we become seamless with our machines.
No other credible long term futures have been proposed.









Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming
technologic. (Brian Arthur, SFI)
Solution: Personality Capture and
Transhumanity
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Your Digital You (Digital Twin)
Greg Panos (and Mother)
PersonaFoundation.org
I would never upload my consciousness
into a machine.
I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life
for my children.

Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050,
your digital mom will be 50% her.
When your best friend dies in 2080, your
digital best friend will be 80% him.
When you die in 2099, your digital you will be
99% you. Will this feel like death, or growth?
Successive approximation, seamless
integration, subtle transition.
When you can shift your consciousness between
your electronic and biological components, the
encapsulation and transcendence of the biological
will feel like only growth, not death.
We wouldnt have it any other way.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
System Meta-Properties: Intelligence
Informational Intelligence
The Cosmic Watermark Hypothesis (E. Wigner)

Evidence: Ashbys Law of Requisite Variety
Game is Rigged to Make Watermarks & Intelligence
Strongly Coadaptive.
Evidence: Historical Computational Closure:
Columbus's Geography Harwit's Astronomy
Smolin's Universe?
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
System Meta-Props: Interdependence
Informational Interdependence
The Empirical Ethics Hypothesis (E.O. Wilson)

Evidence: Evolutionary Psychology
Matt Ridley on reciprocal altruism, Guppies to Gangsters.
Evidence: Non-Zero Sum Games
Robert Wright on capitalism, cooperation, ethics.
Evidence: Statistical Elimination of Social Violence
R.J. Rummel on Statistics for Democide

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
System Meta-Properties: Immunity
Informational Immunity
The Child-Proof Universe Hypothesis (J. Smart)
Evidence: Average Distributed Complexity (ADC)
This measure always accelerating. Catastrophes only
catalyze and stabilize ADC.
Evidence: History of Tech (vs. Civilizations)
Fall of Egypt,Maya,Rome no effect on global tech diffusion.
Evidence: K-T Extinction
Genetic complexity only increased
Evidence: History of Plagues
Never, ever a species threat. Immunity always catalyzed.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
System Meta-Props: Incompleteness
Informational Intelligence
The Incompleteness Theorem (K. Godel)

Evidence: Godel, Church-Turing, Chaitin
Every system is computationally incomplete.
New substrates are necessary to answer undecidable
questions that can be posed from within any
formal logical system.

Accelerating Change, World Security,
and the Non-Integrating Gap
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Connectivity is a
Developmental Attractor
Francis Fukuyama (The End of History),
Thomas Friedmann (The Lexus and the Olive
Branch), Robert Kagan (Of Power and
Paradise) Thomas Barnett (The Pentagons
New Map) and Samuel Huntington (The Clash
of Civilizations) are all mostly right.
The developmental destination for nation states
is clear. But the evolutionary path is bottom
up, and so must be culturally unique.
Our job is to facilitate this one-way transition as
uniquely and as measurably as possible.
These two goals sometimes conflict.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Pentagons New Map
A New Global Defense Paradigm

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Shrinking the Disconnected Gap
The Ozone Hole
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Disconnected Gap:
Our Planetary Ozone Hole
Global Polarization (Core vs. Gap)
Disconnectedness (tech, economic, cultural) defines
danger. (Thomas Barnett, Pentagons New Map)
Strategy: Encircle, Support the Seam States
-- Plant resources in supportive soil.
-- Greatest comparative advantage for shrinking the
hole (eg. Koreas).
Strategy: Dont Stir Up the Ants Nest
-- This is difficult, as due to differential immunity, our
cultural memes (materialism, democracy, etc.) are as
powerful as the germs that wiped out up to 90% of the
less immunologically complex cultures (Rome, 1-
200AD, Europe, 1300, America, 1492-1600)
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Broken Windows Policies:
A Precondition to MEV
Broken Windows theory of political scientist
James Wilson and criminologist George
Kelling (The Atlantic Monthly, March 1982)
Rapid response to and repair of the visibly
"broken" aspects of a local community
increases sense of control, ownership,
initiative and vigilance against crime.
Billboards with easy reporting phone numbers
and list of the top acts people should report.
Giving statistics and trends. Enlisting the
collective in simple vigilance.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Unconscious Gap Strategy:
Measurable Exponential Value (MEV)
Culture-appropriate determination of needs
Invited solutions, two way communication,
feedback, local customization
Subsidize the solutions
Measure the growth rate (exponentiation)
Bottom up marketing
A mix of self sufficiency and philanthropy
(development)
If you dont see exponential adoption,
intervention will not be perceived as a
comparative advantage. Adapt and iterate.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Examples: Iraq
Communications (cellphones)
Lighting (digital solid state)
Energy (centralized economies of scale, subsidized
deflationary prices; decentralized storage and
generation)
Example: Donkey cart generators
Security (networked cameras; camera traps)
Culturally-dependent: Britain vs. S. Africa vs. U.S.
Portable CD Players/local music ($10 at Wal-Mart)
Public access radio and TV stations
Food storage, culinary, and womens needs
Sports / Youth Fads

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
IDAP Technology Processes
Innovation
Diffusion
Assessment
Policy

The future is here, its just not evenly distributed yet.
William Gibson

First to third world diffusion is arguably the greatest
gap. But culture-appropriate assessment processes,
sensitive policymaking, and fostering cultures of
innovation are also important.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Psychology of Exponential Growth
Exponential growth keeps people satisfied.
Benefits are self-reinforcing.
People maintain behavior on non-zero sum interactions,
where the size of the pie and your absolute return
grows even as your percentage decreases annually
(Robert Wright, Non-Zero, 2000)
Citizens turn toward personal and local development,
much less toward nationalism and ideology
(Ron Inglehart, The Silent Revolution, 1976;
Modernization and Postmodernization, 2002)

We can measure this (census and other surveys).

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Key Strategic Question
with any Gap Intervention
Not whether we could have been liked better,
won more hearts and minds (in Iraq or
among our allies).

The key question is the degree to which new
exponential ecologies (technological,
economic, social) are adopted and persist in
the community.
-- Tools, Markets, Rules

We can measure this (operations research).
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
The Say-Do Development Gap
2,600 Iraqi Development Projects Promised
160 under way presently. (Time, July 2004)

Of all of these, communications has been our
biggest shortcoming (failure to communicate).
We wired ourselves superbly (CPOF) but we never
wired in to the populace, or even helped them to wire
themselves, in exponential fashion.

Example: DARPA/USC ICT Tactical Language project.
Top-down thinking. Avatars vs. Persistent Worlds.
We could have had scores of Iraqi/Arabic youth teaching
our incoming soldiers tactical culture in massively
multiplayer online worlds, and using those worlds for
their own benefit as well. A tipping point among the
youth (like Satellite Television in India, etc.).
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Immune Recognition vs. Rejection
The phenomenon of immune recognition (and
immune tolerance) vs. rejection.
The honeymoon period.
Rejection, if no measurable exponential value
within the host network.
We did not pass this test (in fairness, we may
never have passed).

Nevertheless, there were many missed
opportunities for deploying MEV strategy.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Tech Immune Systems Example:
Cellphones
An intrinsically defensive asset.
-- Monitorable (location and content)
-- Strengthen personal networks
-- The mean can self-police the extremes (report
scofflaws)
-- Granular privileges (given and revoked)
-- Can be built robustly (dynamo, shoe batts)
-- Chip provides superior ID (address books)
-- Hot button to security radio band

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Tech Immune Systems Example:
Firearms for Police
Networked weapons are an intrinsically
defensive asset.
-- Single shot magazines (deterrence)
-- Cameras and microphones (Black Box)
-- Cellphone to CENTCOM when safety off
-- The best training possible (on the job)
-- The inevitable future (worldwide buyback of all
non-networked lethals except antiques (eg.
Australia) the emergence of networked non-
lethals.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
What is our control study?
How do we know providing Measurable
Exponential Value would have worked in Iraq?

Whats our control for the connectivity doctrine?
The Gaps own history:
Maoist China, Kampuchea, Afghanistan...

Every example of swings away from connectivity
has been unsustainable in space and time.

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Why the Gap Shrinks
He who can handle the quickest rate of change
survives. -- Col. John Boyd, Military Strategist
Time compression is one form of MEST compression.

Why Eurasia won the sociopolitical, technological,
military, and germ development race (Largest East-
West Axis, earliest domestication of animals, Jared
Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel).
Why Europeans decimated the Americas and Pacific
Islanders with a host of crowd infectious diseases,
and not the other way around.
Why the Gap will shrink to next-to-nothing as we
create a transparent global society this century.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
U.S. Army: Development Challenges
and Opportunities
Security Leader
Development Follower
This makes institutional sense. A natural constraint.

Many development capability options:
Specialization (Corps of Engineers, etc.).
Unique Capacities (Fire and weather mgmt, FLEs)
Competition (Cross services bidding)
Incentives if under budget and before deadline with
quality (ex: Kowloon Tunnel (Hong Kong), Human
Genome Project, etc.))
Networks (Americas Army: worldwide devel. recruits)
Partnerships. Most obvious: USAID (long term
optimists). Many others as well (bottom up).
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Professional Futuring Tools
Acceleration Forecasting (M.S.)
What is accelerating?
How fast? For how long?
What human problem does this solve?
When/how should we implement?

Operations Research (M.S.)
What are likely optima with present conditions?
What are the possible MEST efficiencies?

Developmental Future Studies (M.S.)
What are the inevitable attractors and TINA trends?
When will we get to the next phase change, PTE?
How does this influence present policy and strategy?

Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Closing Questions
Six Questions
1. What would you monitor/scan/measure today to see if we are on an
S-Curve or J-Curve of global computational change?
2. What methods would you use to distinguish evolutionary randomness
from developmental trajectory
3. Is the tech singularity coming? What? When? Where? How? Why?
4. What are our control options for accelerating and ever more
autonomous computation?
5. What are better and worse paths of technology development?
6. How do we promote unity, balance, and accelerating compassion in
the transition?
Consider the First and Third World GDP Curves, 1900 to 2000.
A Proposition: The third world curve is largely ours to choose.
Los Angeles
Palo Alto
2004 Accelerating.org
Action Items
1. Sign up for free Tech Tidbits and Accelerating
Times newsletters at Accelerating.org
2. Attend Accelerating Change (AC2004)
November 5-7 at Stanford, Palo Alto, CA



3. Send feedback to johnsmart@accelerating.org

Thank You.