Plaza

Accord Dollar Index (Monthly)

This is the very big picture chart of the Dollar Index. One of the interesting aspects of this pattern is that I cannot “easily”
count out a completed wave from the highs. However, the move in the box was the strongest countertrend move
witnessed since 1985, in terms of velocity and price. Therefore, it indicates that “something” concluded in 2008. One of
the “issues” with this chart is that from the 1985 highs, there are only three waves down. The third wave down (Wave
<C>) cannot be described as a “five.” This leaves us two realistic possibilities: Either we are still in the midst of Cycle
<C> Wave that will complete sometime in the next few years as an impulsive “five,” or the bigger picture will develop into
a massive triangle or complex (see next page). Under this model, we will likely see sidways/higher movement in the
DXY followed by a marginally lower lower, similar (fractal?) to what was observed in the early 1990s. When this Cycle
<C> finally completes (2012 Elections?), it should trigger a powerful correction higher.

<B>

- II -

- II -
- IV -

- IV -

-I-
-I-
- III -
-V-
<A>
- III -
-V-
<C>
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
Plaza
Accord Dollar Index (Monthly)

The model described here has as much plausibility as the one on the previous page. What this suggests is that the Cycle
<B> Wave has yet to complete. In other words, we have not yet fully consolidated the initial wave down after the Plaza
Accord. This is the model that can take the DXY to 97104 in the next few years before we see a CRUSHING <C> Wave.
The folks looking for hyper-inflation will see their visions become a reality a few years from now according to this theory.

-W-
(C)
“5”

<B>
-Y-
- II - “3” (C)
(A)

- IV - (A)
“1”
“4” (B)
“2”
-I- (A)
- III - (B)
-V- (B)
<A>
(C)
-X-

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (Daily)

The previous pages were a look at the really big picture possibilities which is more of
a ‘mental exercise’ than something that can help us make money now. So, now we
“b” must turn our attention to the here and now. As was pointed out on the first slide,
89.62
“something” concluded last year. The move higher that began in 2008 was not an
(A) “impulsive” pattern--it was a corrective intermediate (A) Wave. The model presented
here has been my preferred count for a few months now. It looks like there is finally
a completed wave down from 89.62. The move best counts out as a “complex
correction.” This suggests that we’re in the middle of an Intermediate (B) Wave
-b- triangle that still has two more waves before completion. Once the (B) is complete, it
should set the stage for a powerful (C).

“d”

-a-
x

-b-

-c- x “e”
w -b- (B)
“a” -a-
-a-
(2)
(4) -b-
-c-
y
-a- (1)
(5)
(3)
-c-
z of “c”
Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________
 89.62

Dollar Index (Daily) ~ Log Scale

In order to be certain of a reversal, we must see a “counter-trend” move that is more powerful than
anything witnessed on the decline from 89.62. The rectangle box from April of this year was the
strongest countertrend move witnessed. This currently rally must exceed that rally, which was a 5.1%
move over 22 trading days. We’re currently on track to match that achievement, which would require a
move over 78.15 sometime before the first week of next year. Interestingly, that’s a level that aligns
VERY well with the 23.6% retrace of the entire decline.

A break of 78.15 in the next few weeks would CONFIRM that a

major bottom is in place and much higher prices are ahead.

78.15

74.33

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 Dollar Index (60 minute)
This is my best interpretation of the price action from the orthodox low. It looks like an “impulse” up from the lows followed by a triangle -b-
wave. The -c- wave should be able to take us beyond the 78.15 level cited on the previous page. Under this model, the market should NOT
be able to break the uptrend line. Any break of this line will NEGATE this very short term bullish model. However, breaking that uptrend line
will not necessarily kill the idea that an important low was made at 74.33.

[1]?

(1)

-a- (b)
(5) (d)
(2)
(3)

(c) (e)
-b-

(4) (a)

(1)

For shorter term updates to models, please refer to

http://andystechnicals.blogspot.com
74.33
z of “c”

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 89.62

Dollar Index (DXY) Daily

This move down from 89.62 seems near a conclusion. The whole pattern is best counted as a “Triple”
b of some kind. It has simply channeled “too perfectly” at various stages to be realistically considered an
“impulsive” move of any kind. There is a good chance that we see more sideways consolidation before
rallying, but a major bottom seems imminent in the U.S. Dollar.

Longer term traders/investors should wait for a break of

the 77.47 to 78.27 resistance zone to prove that a major
bottom is in place.
a
“x”

The first “abc” channeled perfectly. Such b

perfection almost always leads to an x-
wave development. “x” 77.47  78.27
c
“w” b
a

Look how well the next waves c

channeled. It’s almost a certainty this
another move involving an x-wave. “y”
a “z”
REPRINTED from 11/11/09: DXY seems to be having c (C)
Please ignore the degree labeling problems making it to the
bottom of the channel. A sign
of waning downside
momentum?

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 REPRINTED 11/11/09: Please
Dollar Index (DXY) Daily ignore the “degree” labeling -C-
(B)
-A- 89.62 Because the development down from 89.62 looks more like a
(Z) correction than an impulse, I’m left with this count as my preferred
88.46 model: the Primary -B- Wave will become a big Triangle of some
(Y) sort.

(D)

(X)

(W)

77.69 (E)
(A) -B-
(X)
74.77
(C)
Targets: alt: - B -
74.75 for 138.2% of ( A ) = ( C )
72.19 for 161.8% of ( A ) = ( C )

Andy’s Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

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commentary only. The author is NOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/Trading
Advisor of any kind. This merely reflects the author’s interpretation of technical analysis. The
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