Bangladesh Recent Evidence on Efficiency and Equity
Mahmudul Alam Bangladesh Development Researchers Forum (BDREF), October 05, 2006 BIDS, Dhaka
2 Salients Aspects of the Presentation Section 1. Major Issues and the Country Context Section 2: Recent Evidence on Systemic Efficiency and Equity Systemic Efficiency I nternal Efficiency I ndicator Participation and Equity by SES Categories and Regions Section 3: Factors Behind Low UPE-Performance School-based Variables Non-school Variables Section 4:Challenges and Way Forward
3 Section 1. Major Issues and the Country Context
Analytical issues: How policy decision- making takes place in a developing country such as Bangladesh [e.g. (i) rational problem-solving approach with organizational control based on adequate information/estimates( Mann, 1975), (ii) Critical policy approach, a multiplex function of socio-political and economic contestations among different power-wielders such as politicians,state- functionaries, civil society activists and donors, (iii) refined critical approach- the last mentioned approach but significantly influenced by some specific social actors, their hegemonic and historical roles (Gale, 2001)] 4 More close to the refined critical approach- the historical importance of the Liberation War of 1971- A mixture of techno-economic and refined critical approach
Bangladesh has reached a bipartisan consensus (between two major political parties i..e. AL and BNP) on the envisaged development path for the country in 1991- a capitalist development strategy with social justice for the poor/disadvantaged
Naomi Hossains ( 2005) thesis is relevant here to note that the national (capital Dhaka-based) lite class in general does not consider the state-interventionist attempts to alleviate the poverty and other related aspects of the disadvantaged any more viable and urgent; the danger of insurrection by the poor is gone (or can be handled) Section 1. Major Issues ( Contd.) 5 Mechanism for drawing up of state-interventionist primary educational plan/programmes in Bangladesh (see Figures 1.1 and Figure 1.2)- multisectoral and aggregative planning mechanism-top-down-smacks of Soviet-type centralized planning Highly centralized implementation mechanism for UPE with the Directorate ( DPE) headquatered in Dhaka, district-level ( N=64) and upazila or sub-district level (N= 491) offices Section 1. Major Issues .(Contd.) 6 National Economic Council Ministry of Finance (Finance Division, ERD) ECNEC Other Line Ministries (outside MoE/ MoPME) Ministry of Planning Planning Commission Planning Division MoPME/ MoE DPE/ DSHE BNFE
POD NRC NAPE/ NAEM National-level (policy making) National-level (admin, research and training related) Fig 1.1 Bangladesh: Organisation of Educational Planning 8
Section 2 :Recent Evidence on Systemic Efficiency and Equity
Systemic Efficiency
GER has gone up from 96.6 percent in 1997 to 104.8 percent in 2003 ; it has fallen to 93.7 percent in 2005; See Table 3.1 NER has grown from 82 percent in 2004 ;it has fallen to 87 percent in 2005; See Table 3.2 Whether we consider GER or NER as the performance indicator (KPI) , Bangladesh has attained gender-parity in UPE around 2000 ; since then it has been sustained Overtime, 1997-2005, the male enrollment in absolute term has fallen and the rate of growth is statistically significant
I nternal Efficiency I ndicators
Average promotion rate (gr.1-5) for 2005, varies between 77 to 85; GPS fares better than RNGPS; Madrassas are not far off. Considering rural and urban divide, as expected urban pupils do a bit better ; when we compare male-female performance, the female are a few percent-points ahead of the female promotion rates. On the flip-side, the average (per grade) repetition rate is 10-11 percent in GPS and RNGPS. Urban schools are with lower repetition rates. No significant gender-differential in repetition rate Dropout rate varies between four percent (for urban female-GPS) to 12 percent ( male rural- RNGPS); Dropout rates are high with Madrassas 9 Section 2: Recent Evidence( Contd.) As we move from grade 1 to grade 5, there is a pattern for promotion rate and its opposites indexes of repetition rate and dropout rate. Let us consider the internal efficiency estimates for 2005. The highest estimate of promotion rate i.e., 87 percent is observed for grade 2. And the lowest promotion rates of 74-76 are for grades 4,3 and 2. As a mirror image, the highest dropout rate is for grade 4 (it is 15 percent), followed by 13 percent for grade 1; the lower dropout rates are for grades 5,2 and 3. Considering internal efficiency indicators in mainstream schools overtime, 1997- 2005 : the internal efficiency indicator of dropout rate show some small improvement. It is observed that in 1997, the average (for grade 1-5) dropout rate was around 12 percent This level is maintained up to 2003; but in the recent years of 2004 and 2005, the average dropout rate is estimated to be 10 percent. The average (for grade 1to 5) repetition has risen from five percent in 1997 to around 10 percent in 2005. Time trends of survival rates (1997-2005) and coefficient of efficiency (1997- 2005),point to quite serious deficiencies in the mainstream school sub-system; survival rate has fallen from 60-65 percent in 1997 to 53-55 in 2003-2005; coefficient of efficiency has fallen from 64 percent in 1998 to around 55 percent in 2006. Primary school annual scholarship exams reflect the overall performance of the country; Model GPS and NGO run schools perform the best, followed by PTI- experimental schools: overtime (1997-20005), both the participation rate and the pass-rate have gone up.
10 Table 3.1 Bangladesh Primary Education: Overall Gross Enrollment and Gross Enrollment Rates (GERs), in 1997-2006
Years (1) Total population age (6-10) years (2) Gross enrollment in grade I-V (3) (in million) (a)Both sex (b)Male (c)Female (a)Both sex (b)Male (c)Female 1997 18,861,583 9,675,992 9,185,591 18.031(95.60) 9.364(96.78) 8.666(94.35) 1998 19,079,888 9,760,550 9,319,338 18.337(96.11) 9.564(97.99) 8.772(94.13) 1999 18,307,265 9,294,826 9,012,439 17.621(96.26) 9.065(97,53) 8.556(94.94) 2000 18,296,312 9,351,062 8,945,250 17.667(96.57) 9.032(96.60) 8.635(96.53) 2001 18,114,201 9,236,432 8,877,769 17.659(97.49) 8.989(97.33) 8.669(97.65) 2002 18,040,023 9,154,846 8,885,177 17.561(97.35) 8.841(96.58) 8720(98.14) 2003 17,592,292 9,222,030 8,370,262 18.431(104.77) 9.358(101.48) 9.072(108.39) 2004 17,671,087 9,232,740 8,438,347 17.953(101.60) 9.046(97.98) 8.906(105.55) 2005 17,315,296 8,868,810 8,446,486 16.219(93.67) 8.089(91.21) 8.130(96.25)n
Note : Parentheses show GERs 11 Years (1) Total population age (6-10) years (2) Net enrollment in grade I-V (3)( in million) (a)Both sex (b)Male (c)Female (a)Both sex (b)Male (c)Female 1997 18,861,583 9,675,992 9,185,591 15.485(82.10) 8.035(83.04) 7.567(82.39) 1998 19,079,888 9,760,550 9,319,338 15.836(83.00) 8.196(83.97) 7.678(82.39) 1999 18,307,265 9,294,826 9,012,439 15.213(83.10) 7.809(83.97) 7.530(83.55) 2000 18,296,312 9,351,062 8,945,250 15.368(84.00) 7.765(83.04) 7.682(85.88) 2001 18,114,201 9,236,432 8,877,769 15.397(85.00) 7.670(83.04) 7.727(87.04) 2002 18,040,023 9,154,846 8,885,177 15.334(85.00) 7.602(83.04) 7.733(87.04) 2003 17,592,292 9,222,030 8,370,262 16.255(92.40) 8.001(86.76) 8.259(98.68) 2004 17,671,087 9,232,740 8,438,347 16.257(92.00) 8.096(87.70) 8.130(96.35) 2005 17,315,296 8,868,810 8,446,486 15.098(87.20) 7.505(84.63) 7.610(90.10) Table-3.2 Bangladesh Primary Education: Net Enrollment in Mainstream and other*institutions by Gender, 1997-2005
Note: Parentheses show NERs 12
Table-3.3 Bangladesh: Average promotion rates** (per grade) in primary education by major delivery mechanisms, gender and broad regions, 2005
Region (strata) Government Schools (N=37,672) Registered Non- government Schools (N=19,635) Ebtedaiye Madrassas (N=3,488) Male Female Male Female Male Female A. Rural Bangladesh (N=56,829) 82 85 77 79 80 81 B. Urban Bangladesh* (N=3,960) 86 89 81 84 88 81 1. Metropolitan Cities (N=538) 86 89 82 86 88 85 2. Municipalities (N= 3422 ) 86 89 81 83 80 81 C. All Bangladesh (N=60,705) 82 85 77 80 80 81 Source: DPE, Dhaka, August 12, 2006. Notes: * Out of 3,966 urban schools, 3,064 are GPS, 840 are RNGPS and 62 are Ebtedaiye Madrashas. Number promoted from jth class to (j+1) th ** Promotion rate (%) in ith year = ------------------------------------------------------x 100 Total students enrolled in the ith year
13 Table-3.4 Bangladesh: Average repetition** rates (per grade) in primary education by major delivery mechanisms, gender and broad region, 2005
Region (strata) Government Schools (N=37,672) Registered Non- government Schools (N=19,635) Ebtedaiye Madrassas (N=3,488) Male Female Male Female Male Female A. Rural Bangladesh (N=56,829) 11 11 11 10 9 9 B. Urban Bangladesh* (N=3,960) 10 9 9 8 10 10 1. Metropolitan Cities (N=538 ) 8 8 9 5 7 6 2.Municipalities (N=3422) 10 9 9 9 9 9 C. All Bangladesh (N=60,705) 11 11 11 10 9 9
Source: personal communications with DPE, Dhaka, August 12,Dhaka Note: * Out of 3,966 urban schools, 3,064 are GPS, 840 are RNGPS and 62 are Ebtedaiye Madrassas. Number remained in same grade in (i+1) th year ** Repetition rate (%) in ith year in jth grade = -------------------------------------------------------- x 100 Total students enrolled in the ith year
14 Table-3.5 Bangladesh: Average Dropout** Rates (per grade) in primary education major delivery mechanisms, gender and broad region, 2005
Region (strata) Government Schools (N=37,672) Registered Non- government Schools (N=19,635) Ebtedaiye Madrassas (N=3,488) Male Femal e Male Female Male Femal e A. Rural Bangladesh (N=56,829) 7 4 12 10 12 11 B. Urban Bangladesh* (N=3,960) 4 2 10 8 2 9 1. Metropolitan Cities (N=538 ) 6 3 13 9 5 9 2. Municipalities (N= 3422 ) 4 2 10 8 11 10 C. All Bangladesh (N=60,705) 6 4 12 10 11 11
Source: Personal Communications with DPE, Dhaka, August 12, 2006.
Note: * Out of 3,966 urban schools, 3,064 are GPS, 840 are RNGPS and 62 are Ebtedaiye Madrassas. Number dropping out in jth grade by end of ith year ** Dropout (%) in ith year in jth grade = ------------------------------------------------------------- x 100 Total students enrolled in jth grade in ith year
15 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 year a s
%
o f
t o t a l
e n r o l l m e n t Promotion Rates Repetition Rates Dropout Rates
Source: DPE, Dhaka; personal communications on August 12, 2006. Figure-3.1 Bangladesh Primary Mainstream Schools: Average (grade 1 to 5) Rates (as percent of total) of Promotion, Repetition, and Dropout, 1997-2005 16 Figure-3.2 Bangladesh: Survival Rates (%) of Student Cohorts in Mainstream Primary Schools, 1997-2005
Survival rates in Primary Education (1997-2005) 44% 48% 52% 56% 60% 64% 68% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year R a t e
Source: DPE, Dhaka; personal communications on August 12, 2006. Note: No. of students from the cohort surviving upto grade 5 Survival rate (%) of a cohort of students = ----------------------------------------------------------------- x 100 No. of students enrolling in grade 1 in ith year
17 Figure-3.3 Bangladesh: Coefficient of Efficiency (in percent) in Mainstream Primary Schools (GPS and RNGPS), 1997-2005
Coefficient of efficient in Primary Education (1997-2005) 56% 58% 60% 62% 64% 66% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year R a t e
Source: DPE, Dhaka; personal communications on August 12, 2006. Note: Total of ideal-years for a pupil to complete Coefficient of efficiency (%) for primary education cycle = --------------------------------------------------- x 100 Total of pupil-years actually required 18 Table-3.6 Bangladesh: Primary Scholarship Examination Results by Different Types of Mainstream Schools, 2005
Sl. No. School Type (1) No. Appeared (2) Pass-rate (%) (3) A. GPS 1 (i) Govt. Model Primary School (N=463) 12,200 (89.0) 2 (ii) PTI experimental (N=53) 1,274 (83.7) 3 (iii) Government Primary School (N=37,339) 363,066 (69.2) 4 (iv) Community (N=2056) 10,445 (44.7) B. Non-government 5 (i) RNGPS (N=19,890) 120,853 (53.9) 6 (ii) BRAC Schools (N=2695) 11,230 (89.1) 7 (iii) Other (N=1386) 28,924 (89.0) Source: DPE, Dhaka; personal communications on August 12, 2006. Note: Parentheses give percentages. 19 Table-3.7 Bangladesh: Primary Scholarship Examination Results for Mainstream School (GPS and RNGPS) Participation Rates, Pas-rates by Gender, 2002-05
1) Year (2) Participants ( (3) Pass-rate (%) (a)Number (b) As % of enrolment in class 5 (A) Both sexes (b) Girls 2002 451,033 (21.57) (44.19) (41.19) 2003 452,415 (21.89) (51.94) (48.83) 2004 487,400 (23.53) (54.21) (51.02) 2005 604,359 (31.57) (67.25) (65.05) Source: DPE, Dhaka; personal communications on August 12, 2006. Note: Parentheses give percentages. 20 Table-3.8 Bangladesh Mainstream Primary Schools: Distribution (Percent-share) Of Institutions with Basic Physical Facilities, 2005
Major Aspect Distribution by School-types (a) GPS (N=37672) (b) RNGPS (N=19682) 1. Useable classroom Pucca**, Semi-pucca (58) [38] (92) [04] 2. Potable water (91) (89) 3. Separate Toilets (a) Girls (b) Boys (37) (32) (35) (29) (c) Teacher (49) (35)
Source: DPE, Dhaka; personal communications on August 12, 2006. Note: * Parentheses give percentages. ** [ ] show classroom which are in semi-pucca structures.
21 Section 2: Recent Evidence (contd.)
Participation and Equity by SES -Categories and Regions
See Table 3.10- enrollment rate is positively related with better SES, dropout rate is inversely related with higher SES. Similar situation in terms of NER, see Annex 3.5 ( of Education Watch- 2000 Report).
22 Table 3.10 Bangladesh: Children (age 6-10) by Enrollment Status and Socio-economic Status 1 (SES), 2004 Source: CAMPE, Quality with Equity: The Primary Education Agenda, Education Watch Report 2003/4, Dhaka 2005
SES category
Enrollment Status (%)
No. of total children (6-10 yrs)
(a) Enrolled
(b) Dropout
Never enrolled
1. Always in deficit
67.6
7.1
25.2
100 (210)
2. Sometimes in deficit
87.4
3.1
9.4
100 (1178)
3. Break even
90.8
2.8
6.4
100 (2299)
4. Surplus
95.3
1.3
3.5
100 (1506)
5. All types
100 (5193)
Notes: 1, Here SES-categories are defined following the World Food Programme (WFP) categories, where the degree of food insecurity (or otherwise) has been taken as the determining criterion. 2. The estimates presented here are based on non-random sample survey of 10 upazilas (sub-districts) of Bangladesh by CAMPEs research team (2005). Purposively, the survey covered 4 upazilas of high food insecurity areas, 3 each from moderately food insecure and low food insecure areas. The estimates are based on household surveyor (N = 8212); covered all the administrative divisions, mainly rural areas (with some urban areas), proportionately more of food-deficit areas 23 24
Section 2: Recent Evidence..(contd.)
There is a clear regional pattern in UPE-performance- Metropolitan areas of Dhaka,Chittagong ,Khulna and other district-towns doing better when compared with the rural areas.
Administrative divisions of Sylhet,Rajshahi and Chittagong (in that order) lag behind in terms of quatitative and qualitative indicators of performance; the leading adminstrative areas are Khulna,Barisal and Dhaka. Per capita GDP- wise Chittagong and Sylhet do so well but it is not reflected in UPE- performance.On the contrary, Barisal in general a deficit area, does perform significantly better in UPE 25 26
Section 2: Recent Evidence..(contd.)
Figure-3.4 Bangladesh Rural Enrollment Rate of 6-10 years old by Poverty-Status and Regions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Rural Area G E R
( %
o f
e l i g i b l e
c h i l d r e n
) Poor Male Poor Female Non-Poor Male Non-Poor Female
Source: BBS 2005, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), 2000
27 Figure-3.5
Bangladesh Urban Enrollment Rate of 6-10 years old by Poverty-Status and Regions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Barisal Chittagong Dhaka Khulna Rajshahi Urban Area G E R
( %
o f
e l i g i b l e
c h i l d r e n ) Poor Male Poor Female Non-Poor Male Non-Poor Female
Source: BBS 2005, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), 2000
28 Section 3: Factors Behind Low UPE Performance School-based variables
Inadequate contact hours and in optimal teaching-learning materials. See Table 3.11
Unattractive school environment (little games/music/art-works; dull pedagogy, low teacher-student ratio; lack of subject-based and class- room-based teacher training; lack of academic supervision. See Table 3.13 29 Table 3.11 Bangladesh Mainstream Primary Schools: Contact Hours Availability of Free Textbooks and Instructional Materials, 2005 Major Aspect Distribution by School-types (a) GPS (N= 37672 ) (b) RNGPS (N= 19682) 1. Yearly contact hours 600 600 Double shift** (88) (91) 2. Timely availability of free textbooks (98) (98) 3. Availability of teaching aid and learning materials (51) (48)
Source: DPE, Dhaka; August 12, 2006. Note: * Parentheses give percentages. ** Single shift schools are 12 percent of the total GPS-type and nine percent of the RNGPS-type. The single shift-school runs on average (yearly) for about 900 hours. 30 Table-3.12 Bangladesh Mainstream Primary Schools: Distribution of Teachers by Some Salient Features, 2005
Major Aspects Distribution by School-types (a) GPS (N= ) (b) RNGPS (N= ) 1. Teacher-student ratio 1:58 1:46 2. Initial Teacher-training** [C-in-Ed] (in %) (73) (73) 3. Subject-based training*** (27) (30) 4. Sub-cluster training (80) (80) 5. Class-room-based training (35) (35) 6. Head-teacher training in teacher support & academic supervision (34) (38)
Source: DPE, Dhaka; August 12, 2006. Note: * Parentheses give percentages. ** 76 percent of the male-teachers got trained and 69 percent of the female-teachers got trained. *** Subject-based trained teachers are lower by one percent point among GPS-female teachers and by four percent points among RNGPS-female teachers. 31 Non-school variables
Low income, poor households not interested to send their children to even free primary school- questions of direct costs (about US S 19/year) plus opportunity costs e.g. at home helping the family in farming,other income-generating activities
To encourage the poor children to enrol and sustain in the school in rural areas the state has started ( from July,2002) demand-side financing (Tk.100/month per child) under Primary Education Stipend Project (PESP); significant leakages (faulty targeting, asking for premium) of PESP-money have been reported (CAMPE,2004)
First generation learners (about 45 percent of the total students) do not get optimal support from the school/teachers; teacher- student ratio is one of the highest in the world (1:60) Section 3. Factors Behind Low UPE Performance (contd) 32 Table-3.14 Bangladesh: Yearly Public Recurrent Expenditure of Primary Education by Delivery Mechanisms, Rural-Urban Locations, 2000
Areas Yearly Public Expenditure Per Pupil (in current Taka) GPS (N= ) RNGPS (N= ) Ebtedaiye (N= ) (a) Rural (N= ) 828 535 1173 (b) Urban (N= ) 1144 1548 1863 All Bangladesh
Note: 1 US$ = 53.65 Taka in 2000. Source: CAMPE-UPL, Renewed Hope-Daunting Challenges Education Watch-2001, Chapter 7, Dhaka 2002.
33 Table-3.15 Bangladesh: Yearly Private Cost of Primary Education by Rural- urban Locations, Socio-economic (Food-consumption) Status and Gender, 2000 Areas Annual Private Cost of Primary Education of household/Socio-economic Status (A) Always Deficit (b) Sometime in deficit (c) Balance (d) Surplus (a) Rural (i) Male 514 600 769 1066 (ii) Female 510 517 674 924 (b) Urban (i) Male 1280 1902 2557 5699 (ii) Female 1184 1302 2310 5397
BIDS-World Bank study (2004) finds a positive relationship between (in a household) adult male educational level and childrens primary enrolment, also primary completion rate; for first generation learners the school has to supply the complete answer (no home-work, domestic support/private tutor)
Last but not the least, lack of community involvement [ School Management Committee (SMC),Parent Teacher Association (PTA), are not given due roles]; highly centralised primary education system in the country. From the capital Dhaka, the Directorate of Primary Education( DPE) virtually regulates about 70,000 schools and about 300,000 teachers in the country.The Upazila (Sub-district) and District level DPE- functionaries are it seems mere post-boxes passing on any major decision-making to DPE,Dhaka. 35 Challenges
Way Forward
1. How to increase overall enrolment ( in relative and absolute terms)
Make the mainstream schools ( GPS+ RNGPS) more attractive in terms of teaching learning transactions, better ( interactive) pedagogy; improved academic supervision by AUEOs and Head teachers
2. How to enrol and sustain the poor children in the school
(a)Effective enforcement of Compulsory Primary Education Act of 1990; School Management Committee( SMC) and the local government body of Union Parishad( UP) must be made answerable for non-enrolment of the poor( or any) children in its catchments area, and for not sustaining in the school (b) SMC/concerned teachers will be involved in the social mobilization and follow-up activities for enrolment/sustaining the poor children in the school
3. How to devolve activities related to planning, implementation,M&E to local groups/ultimate beneficiaries ( participatory development)
Without causing any major headache/alarm to the national ( well- entrenched) elite, it may be possible to empower the local elite ( e.g. UP-members), District-level educationists, technocrats, CPE- committees ( in line the autocratic Ershad s attempt) may be formed for social mobilization, M&E and so on.
4. More resources required for quality education
State decision-makers ( whether political, technocratic or administrative) should know that US $ 19/pupil per year is not adequate for quality primary education in the country; parents are willing to pay money for quality education. Some innovative ways [ e.g. tax-exempt endowment funds at the local levels ( UP, District)] to mobilize resources may be tried. Public recognition of these philanthropies should encourage potential donors.
Innovative Strategies for Accelerated Human Resources Development in South Asia: Student Assessment and Examination: Special Focus on Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka