Probability Fundamentals

Instructor: Dr. Sohail Iqbal

Math-801: Mathematical Methods for Computing
Quote of the Day

Life is a school of
probability
Example of Probability
Problem: A spinner has 4 equal sectors
coloured yellow, blue, green and red.
What are the chances of landing on blue after
spinning the spinner? What are the chances of
NOT landing on red?
Solution: The chances of landing on blue are
1 in 4, or one fourth. The chances of not
landing on red are 3 in 4, or three fourth.
Probability Of An Event

P(A) = The Number Of Ways Event A Can Occur
The total number Of Possible Outcomes

Example 1:

A coin has two outcomes and
One way of events happening

P(A) = 1/2
Example 2
A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the
probability of each outcome? What is the
probability of rolling an even number? of
rolling an odd number?

P(1..6) = 1/6
P(even number) = 3/6
P(odd number) = 3/6
Example 3
A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3
yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen at
random from the jar, what is the probability of
choosing a red marble? a green marble? a blue
marble? a yellow marble?

P(red) = # of ways to choose red = 6
total # of marbles 22
P(green) = # of ways to choose green = 5
total # of marbles 22
Possible or Impossible?
Impossible event A; P(A)=0;

Example: picking the Ace of swords out of a standard pack of
cards.

Certain event B; P(B)=1;

Example: A teacher chooses a student at random from a class of
girls. What is the probability that the student will be a girl?

P(X) must be between 0 and 1, both inclusive;
Sample Spaces
A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. The sum of
all the probabilities in the sample space is 1.

Example: What would be the sample space for the rolling of a
standard die?

{1,2,3,4,5,6} - all the possible outcomes.

Example: What about flipping two coins?

{HH, HT, TH, TT} - all outcomes denoted by (H)eads or (T)ails.

Are Sample Spaces Unique?
Reconsidering the previous coin flipping example:
Instead of denoting the sample space using (H)eads and
(T)ails we could for example count the number of
heads in which case the sample space would be:
{0,1,2} - For example HH would be equivalent to 2 in
this sample space

So an experiment can have multiple sample spaces all of
which are technically correct depending on the
modelling choices we make.

Are all Sample Spaces as Useful?
For the coin flipping example we have Sample Spaces
of:
{HH, HT, TH, TT} - all outcomes denoted by (H)eads or
(T)ails.

OR
{0,1,2} - For example HH would be equivalent to 2 in
this sample space.

Probability Distributions
This table shows the
sample space for
rolling two dice and
the sum of their
outcomes. This only
works when events
are equally likely.
The first and last
columns represent a
probability
distribution
Empirical Probability
Empirical probability is based on observation.
The empirical probability of an event is the relative
frequency of a frequency distribution based upon
observation.
It is the ratio of the number of "favourable" outcomes
to the total number of trials.
Empirical probability is an estimate of a probability
P(E) = f / n
Example: A bird watcher logs the species that she sees.
Out of the 100 birds that are recorded, 20 were
sparrows therefore the estimated probability would be:
20/100 or 0.2.
The Compliment of an Event
Definition: The complement of an event A is
the set of all outcomes in the sample space that
are not included in the outcomes of event A.
The complement of event A is represented
by (read as A bar) .
Rule: Given the probability of an event, the
probability of its complement can be found by
subtracting the given probability from 1.
P() = 1 - P(A)

Example
A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow,
blue, green and red. What is the probability of
landing on a sector that is not green after
spinning this spinner?
Sample Space: {yellow, blue, green, red}

Probability:
P(not green) = 1 - P(green) = 1 - 1 = 3
4 4

The Compliment of an Event
A single card is chosen at random from a standard
deck of 52 playing cards. What is the probability
of choosing a card that is not a king?

There are four kings in the sample space therefore
the probability of choosing one is 4/52.

Using the compliment rule:

P(Not King) = 1 4/52 = 48/52 = 12/13
Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur
at the same time. Another word that means mutually
exclusive is disjoint.
If two events are disjoint, then the probability of them both
occurring at the same time is 0.
Disjoint: P(A and B) = 0
If two events are mutually exclusive, then the probability of
either occurring is the sum of the probabilities of each
occurring.

Specific Addition Rule

Only valid when the events are mutually exclusive.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example: What is the probability of throwing a 1 or 2
using a fair 6-sided die?
P(X=1) = 1/6
P(X=2) = 1/6
P(X=1 OR X=2) = P(X=1) + P(X=2) = 1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6
Note that the two events are mutually exclusive as the
die cant be in two states at the same time.
Example: A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the
probability of rolling a 5 or an odd number?
The number rolled can be a 5 and odd. These events
are not mutually exclusive since they can occur at the
same time.
Mutually Exclusive Events

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
(Over lapping events)

Non-Mutually Exclusive Events
In events which aren't mutually exclusive, there is
some overlap.
When P(A) and P(B) are added, the probability of
the intersection (and) is added twice.
To compensate for that double addition, the
intersection needs to be subtracted.

General Addition Rule
Always valid.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Practice

Construction of unique examples:
Please make two sample spaces each
explaining one of the following concepts:
1. Mutually Exclusive Events
2. Mutually non-Exclusive Events


Reading
Set of 52 poker playing cards, must know:
Colors
Suits
Face cards etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playing_card

Why Mathematical Methods?

Probability, Logic, Graph algorithms

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