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Development & Environment

Myths & Realities
By Garry Jacobs
The Mothers Service Society
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Options ?
No growth
De-growth
Growth
Development
Conscious Development or Evolution
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World Average PCI 1950-2000
In constant $2000 PPP
World Average (Per Capita GDP)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1
9
5
0
1
9
5
2
1
9
5
4
1
9
5
6
1
9
5
8
1
9
6
0
1
9
6
2
1
9
6
4
1
9
6
6
1
9
6
8
1
9
7
0
1
9
7
2
1
9
7
4
1
9
7
6
1
9
7
8
1
9
8
0
1
9
8
2
1
9
8
4
1
9
8
6
1
9
8
8
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
8
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
2
500 years of progress in 50 years
UNDP
World Average Per Capita GDP
Constant $2000 PPP
Geary-Khamis dollars
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PCI Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2
9
,
0
3
7
2
3
,
2
3
6
2
1
,
5
3
0
2
1
,
2
1
8
1
7
,
8
1
8
1
6
,
3
6
0
1
3
,
8
0
7
1
0
,
1
4
5
8
,
9
1
5
7
,
6
7
4
7
,
2
3
3
6
,
8
0
5
6
,
2
7
8
5
,
5
6
3
4
,
9
3
7
4
,
0
6
0
3
,
7
6
8
3
,
5
4
7
3
,
2
9
5
2
,
9
5
3
2
,
6
1
7
2
,
5
3
6
2
,
1
4
7
1
,
8
8
1
1
,
3
7
2
1
,
2
6
8
1
,
1
0
2
1
,
0
4
0
9
9
4
8
7
1
6
5
5
6
0
1
5
1
8
PCI 2003
C
u
m

P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

%
Growth of real PCI 1950-2000
PCI Growth
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
3
0
,3
8
7
9
,0
6
4
7
,2
9
1
5
,9
9
6
4
,9
8
7
3
,8
4
6
3
,5
0
2
2
,8
1
7
2
,4
4
7
2
,3
0
8
2
,1
8
9
2
,1
0
4
1
,9
8
9
1
,9
1
6
1
,7
2
0
1
,6
2
3
1
,5
5
1
1
,3
6
5
1
,2
5
9
1
,1
5
1
1
,0
8
4
1
,0
5
2
1
,0
0
1
9
1
1
8
5
4
8
1
7
7
0
1
6
5
8
6
4
3
6
1
3
5
6
0
4
9
6
4
6
4
4
3
5
3
6
0
3
0
3
PCI 1950
C
u
m

P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n

%
73% of World Population had PCI
<$2000 (constant PPP)
Only 18% of World Population had
PCI <$2000 (constant PPP)
PCI 1950
PCI 2003
Average $2100
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Pace of development is accelerating
Multiplication of real PCI (PPP) 1950-2000
Korea 19
Taiwan 18
Botswana 12
Japan 11
China & Thailand 8
Spain & Portugal 7
Ireland, Greece & Israel 6
Italy & Germany + 5 5
Indonesia, France, Turkey + 12 4
Brazil, Mexico, India, Pakistan, USA + 29 3
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UK 1780-1838 58 yrs
USA 1839-1886 47 yrs
Japan 1880-1920 40 yrs
World 1950-1973 23 yrs
India 1985-2001 16 yrs
China 1980-1992 12 yrs
Japan 1962-1971 9 yrs
Korea 1964-1971 7 yrs
Doubling real PCI took
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Per Capita GDP (PPP) 1 AD to 2001
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Year
World Per Capita GDP (PPP) China India
Growth of China, India & World PCI
1000-2000 (Constant $ PPP)
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Growth projections
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Qualitative development
Quality of products & services
Freedom through democratization
Human Rights
Equality for Women
Explosion of knowledge
Spread of education
Proliferation of skills
Instantaneous global communication
Faster, cheaper transportation
Access to entertainment
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Unanswered Questions
How can we explain the unprecedented progress since
1950?
What factors are responsible for accelerated development?
Are high growth rates sustainable?
What are the real limits to development?
What is the source of the repeated crises & threats to human
development?
Why is it that every time we solve one problem, weseem to
create another one?
If the worlds response to crisis is inadequate, are we capable
of a different response? If so, how would we define it?
Do we as leaders of thought act differently in our own lives?
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Limits to Development
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Population Projections

1 billion
6.7 billion
9 billion
More education
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Limits to Development
Viewing development as a physical
process, the limits are apparent
Land
Food
Water
Energy
Pollution
Climate Change
Malthus on Population
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Population Explosion
Result of rapid unidimensional advances in
medical & agricultural technology
Saved 100 million lives in India b/n 1950-1980
Malthus did not conceive of
Birth Control
Green Revolution
Impact of education & income on birth rates
Problems created in one way are often solved in
another way
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Food Production
40%
170%
World Food Production Index 1961-2003
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Food challenge remains
The Food Challenge Remains
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Comparative Tomato Yields
tons per acre
California avg 40
California high 60
India 10
S. India high 38
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Global Water Consumption

7 fold increase since 1900
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Excess Water Supply
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Water Demand
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Scope for Water Conservation
80% of water in India is consumed for agriculture
Water productivity in agriculture is extremely low
California farmer produces 35 x more cotton/liter of H
2
0
Furrow irrigation reduces water consumption 50-70%
Deep chiseling can 2x yields & half water usage
RWH can replenish 10 yrs consumption in one year
Normally takes 1000 liters of water per kg of vegetables,
but Dutch have done it with 1.4 liters.
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Tomato with furrows in TN
Improved technology consumed 1/3
rd
of the water
Achieved 3.2 x higher yield (38 tons)
10-fold increase in water productivity
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Coal Problem
William Stanley Jevons 1835-82
In 1865 UK led the world in GDP and per capita
income & produced 60% of the worlds coal output.
Jevons foresaw severe coal shortages
Recommended mass emigration to USA & Australia
UK coal consumption is now
10% of the peak level in 1913
25% of the level in 1975
7% of total UK energy

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Energy Consumption & GDP per capita
40-50%
lower
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Energy Intensity 1980-2000
Constant $$ PPP
Constant $$ PPP
Global energy
intensity to
decline 50%
by 2030 (IEA)
Constant PPP $
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McKinsey Energy Studies
Investment in energy efficiency can half the
growth in global energy demand, equivalent to
$900 billion in savings a year from 2020.
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Resources
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What is a resource?
Resources are inputs for
carrying out any activity.
Mind discovering a use for
anything creates a resource.
Resources make other
resources more productive.
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Silicon
Sand
Bricks
Cement
Glass
Transistors
Fiber optics
Integrated circuits
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Land
Water
Minerals
Coal
Oil
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
Hydrogen
Physical Resources
Non-renewable finite, scarce
Renewable Abundant
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Social or Organizational Resources
Organizations multiply human productivity
Language
Law
Markets
Money
Media
Green Revolution
Education
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Educational Potential
Gap in Education - India Vs Higher countries - 2004
61
107
52
11
100
118
170
89
82
106
78
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Adult Literacy (%) GER - Primary GER - Secondary GER - Tertiary
Parameters
V
a
l
u
e
sIndia
Top Performer
World Average
Gross Enrollment Level
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Mental Resources
Technology
Information
Knowledge
Creativity

Unlike material resources, information &
knowledge are not lost when you give
them away. Harlan Cleveland
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Internet as Mental Organization
Internet multiplies human capabilities &
extends social organization 1000-fold
Global social networking
Global access to information
Global free communication
Global transactions
The potential impact on productivity of
resources & quality of life is incalculable
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Psychological Resources
Rising expectations
Skills & capacities
Culture
Values
Trust
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Theory of Resources
Vast potential to increase resource productivity &
decrease resource consumption (waste)
Non-physical resources enhance productivity of
physical resources
Non-material resources become increasingly
important at higher levels of development
Non-material resources are essentially unlimited in
potential
Human beings are the only real resource
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Does the requirement of the sustainable world
imply limit to growth and development?
Creative capacity of human beings implies a
possibility of a continuous increase of human capital
and social capital and of increasing freedom and
number of options.

The greatest obstacles are individual and social
inner limits - psychological, cultural and political.
The most valuable assets humankind can count
on..to stop the decline and to prepare for the future
are to be found in the still untapped resources of
comprehension, vision and creativity..inherent in
every human being.
A. Peccei, Agenda for the End of the Century
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Why do humans create problems?
We learn by trial & error evolving from unconsciousness
& ignorance to knowledge
Our approach to knowledge is fragmented &
compartmentalized, focused on the part, not the whole
We know more about the world around us, than about
ourselves. We are unconscious of the process of how we
learn, change and develop
Our motive for learning is largely personal & self-
interested, rather than objective and rational
We are ourselves products of natures evolution which is
subconscious. Can we become conscious of the process
of social evolution by which we change?
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New Paradigm
We need a totally new paradigm for
solving problems through knowledge
without creating other problems in the
process.
Pushpa Bhargava
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Conclusions
Development challenges & threats come to make
us more conscious
Humanity evolves by becoming more conscious &
developing more effective social organization
The increasing rates of development are due to a
progressive evolution of mental consciousness
The threat of climate change compels us to
accelerate that evolution of consciousness & to
evolve effective social organization at the global
level
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Need for a theory of social evolution
Thinking on development is the greatest
intellectual challenge of the coming
years.
Boutros Boutros Ghali