LOS CAMBIOS CLIMTICOS Y

VULNERABILIDAD DE LOS
RECURSOS HDRICOS EN BOLIVIA

(Summary of papers and implication for future
studies)
La Paz, junio de 2014


Ramiro Pillco Zol, Ph.D

rami_lund99@hotmail.com



Geographical position and
the vulnerability of ALTIPLANO

Evaporation and climate changes
of Andean Plateau in large time scale


Intense local hydrological processes
and future studies






Papers carried out
Evaporation of Andean plateau surface waters strongly influences
stable isotopes elevation reconstruction
Richard P. Fiorella
a
, Christopher J. Poulsen
a
, Ramiro Pillco Zol
b
, M.
Louise Jeffery
a, d
and Todd A. Ehlers
a,c
(submited to PPHYSICAL
SCIENCE, 2014)

Spatial interpretation of precipitation in Altiplano derived from
TRMM and PERSSIAN satellites (Presented at fifth Scientific Meeting
of ORE-HYBAM, Bolivia, 2013)
F. Satg
a
, A. Arsen
b
, M.P. Bonnet
a
, F. Timouk
a
, S. Calmant
b
, R. Pillco
Zola
b
, J. Molina
c
, W. Lavado-Casimiro
d
, J.F. Crtaux
b

Accuracy assessment of SRTM v4 and ASTER GDEM v2 over the
Altiplanos watershed using ICES/GLAS DATA (submitted in 2013) .
F. Satg
a
, A. Arsen
b
, M.P. Bonnet
a
, F. Timouk
a
, S. Calmant
b
, R. Pillco
Zola
c
, J. Molina
c
, W. Lavado-Casimiro
d
, J.F. Crtaux
b


Response of Bolivian Altiplano Lakes to Seasonal and Anual
Climate Variation (Doctoral Thesis, Ramiro Pillco Zol, Lund University, 2007)

Additional works
Tectonic control on denudation rates in the central Bolivian Andes
Gerold Zeilinger (1), Florian Kober (2), Kristina Hippe (3), Theodora Lendzioch (1), Reto
Grischott (2), Ramiro Pillco Zol (4), and Markus Christl (5) (University of Potsdam) (Published
at Geophysical Research, 2013) (EU FUNDS)

Sediment production in Tuni river glacier watershed, Bolivia (Presented at AOGS
meeting, Taiwan, 2012) (JICA FUNDS)

Geomorphology and the erosion behavior of glacier watershdes in Bolivia (Presented
at Grande International Symposium, Tohoku University, Sendai, 2012) (JICA FUNDS)

Runoff prediction with swedish Hvb model in the small Azanaque watershed with
porpuse of water planign
Marco Limachi (a), Ramiro Pillco Zol (b) (Presented at National workshop in modeling of
water resources in Bolivia, 2013) (SIDA FUNDS)

Recharge zones defined for Azanaque watershed on satellite images and based on
empirical model
Mauro Reyes Ayaviri, Ramiro Pillco Zol (Presented at local workshop, La Paz, Bolivia, 2013)
(SIDA FUNDS)

Desing of groudwater dam in Huacani watershed for irrigation purposes, 2012
(SIDA FUNDS)
Alejandra Mollinedo, Ramiro Pillco Zol

Motivation








(close at 4000 masl, 14S and 22S and longitude 66W and 71W)
Living under
risk!
(J. Allen, 2000)

Geographical position and the vulnerability of
ALTIPLANO (Context)








( MCQUARRIE, 2005)
Orographic barrier and high
position/
climate changes consequences
(Smith, 1979; Seager, 2002; Takahashi, 2007)
Geodynamic mechanism






- Precipitation distribution at regional scale

Data comparison between TRMM and observed, northern part
(F. Stage, R. Pillco, et al., 2013)
Geographical position and the vulnerability of
ALTIPLANO (Context)









Geographical position and the vulnerability of
ALTIPLANO (Context)








The positive precipitation
anomalies in Altiplano is linked to
La-Nia of ENSO phenomena an the
contrary to El-Nio

The southern of Altiplano is
becoming warmer than the northern
of Altiplano. For tropical region we
may expect 4, 7 C (IPCC, 2010)

According to climate treats we
may expect high vulnerability for
changes of ecosystems, agriculture,
health

(R. Pillco & C. Uvo, 2006)

Geographical position and the vulnerability of
ALTIPLANO (Context)








Water level changes for the
present climate, observed/computed






Water level for future scenarios
warmer climate and cold climate

Titicaca Lake
(R. Pillco, et al, 2007)

Evaporation of Andean Plateau
and from surface water

- Isotopic composition of Altiplano, today










(2009-2012)
-The streams have experienced
highly evaporation than the precipitation

- There is encrease in the 18O of
precipitation with increasing elevation



..or with altitude more evaporative water
(F. Stage, R. Pillco, et al, 2013)
-In long-term the water with uplift of Altiplano
will become more evaporative ???
GDEM/ICE

Evaporation of Andean Plateau and
from surface water

- It was applied stable-isotopes/orogenic histories











Miocene
arid
The surface evaporation
was pervasive during all
the time of Andean uplift
Uplift
2.5 km
(Garzione, 2008; Leier, 2013)

Evaporation of Andean Plateau and
from surface water













(Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, M;
Pillco, R.; 2013)

Intense local hydrological processes
and future activities






- The precipitation trend at local scale

0,000
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1,000
1,100
1,200
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oct 2008 nov 2008 dic 2008 dic 2008 ene 2009 mar 2009 mar 2009 abr 2009 may 2009 jun 2009 jul 2009 ago 2009 sep 2009
Qobs
Qsim
(M. Limachi & R. Pillco, 2012)
(R. Pillco & C. Uvo, 2006)

Intense hydrological processes/future activities






- Climate changes impact on poor developed societies

Water limited

Increasing pressure

Over-extraction

Fragile ecosystems

Basic water management

Climate changes impact


(M. Reyes & R. Pillco, 2012)

Intense hydrological processes/future activities




- Informative map at small scale

Trend and climate changes
at regional scale
Trend and climate changes
at local scale
Prediction at regional scale and models
Prediction at local scale and models
Conventional actions
Adaptation actions
What should be the model for reasonable economic development?

Thanks !
(Ramiro, 2014)