PROBABILITY

Counting and Sets

1. Sets
- Elements/member of set
- Number of elements n(A)
Example:
The possible results obtained when flipping a
coin are either head and tail.




- Universal set S
- Complement of a set A
- n(A) = 1 n(A)
A


Example:
Let the universal set, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8,
9} and A is the set which is defined as the set
of odd numbers. Enumerate the set A and A.
- Union of set U

A U B


- Intersection of set


A B



Example:
Given that A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and B = {5, 6, 7,
8, 9}, find and .

Rules of operation
a)
b)
c)
d)
A B A B
( ') ' A A =
( )' ' ' A B A B =
( ) ' ' ' A B A B =
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
A B C A C B C
A B C A C B C
=
=
- Empty set { } or
- Exclusive set





-
Example:
Given A = {1, 2, 5, 6}, B = {3, 4}, C = {2, 7, 9} and
D = {8}. Find
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
C

A B = C
( ) ( ) ( ) n A B n A n B = +
( ) n A B
( ) n A C
( ) n A B ( ) n A B D
Not exclusive



- The rule can also be generalised to that of three
sets:


( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) n A B n A n B n A B = +
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) n A B C n A n B n C n A B n B C n A C n A B C = + + +
The multiplication principles
If an operation can be carried out in r ways, a
second operation in s ways, a third operation in
t ways and so on, then there are r x s x t x ..
ways of carrying out all the operation.

Example 1:
There are 3 possible routes from town A to town
B and 4 possible routes from town B to town C.
How many different routes are there for a
person to travel from A to C through B.
Example 2:
A manufacturer can choose 3 design of casing
for a computer and he can also choose 2 type
of CPU and 4 types of hard disks to fit in the
casing. How many different types of computer
can he makes?
Permutation
1. Permutation of n different object
- Number of arrangements of n different
objects in a row is .


Example:
A teacher plans to use 5 pots of different
flower to decorate a stage. These pots are to
be arranged in arow. In how many ways can
she make the arrangement.


!
n
n
P n =
2. Permutation of n object, taking r objects each
time
- In general, this is true for all n. if we represent
the permutation of n objects taking r objects
each time as


Example:
How many three digit numbers can be formed
from the 7 digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 if every digit
can be used only once?
!
( )!
n
r
n
P
n r
=

3. Permutation when there are similar objects

- In general, if there are a total of n objects, out of
which p of them are the same object, q of another
object, r of another object and so on, then the
total number of arrangements is



Example 1
We wish to arrange 8 pots of follows in a row. 3 of
which are red roses, 2 of which are white hibiscus
and the rest are different flowers. How many ways
are there?

!
! ! !...
n
p q r
Example 2:
I have 6 card with the digits 1, 2, 2, 3, 4 and 5
written on each of them. In how many ways can
arrange 3 out of the 6 card in a row.

4. Permutation in a circle
(n 1)!
Example 1:
In how many ways can you arrange 6 customers at a
round table?
Example 2:
In how many ways can you arrange 6 customers,
two of them identical twins who look alike and are
dressed a like, at a round table?



5. Permutation with conditions
Example 1:
6 men and 4 women are to be seated in a row. Find the
number of ways to arrange them if
(a) the men sit together in a group and the women in
another group,
(b) the women sit together in a group,
(c) all the women are separated.

Example 2:
In how many ways can 4 people be seated in a Kancil car if
(a) all of them can drive?
(b) only one of them can drive?
(c) only two people can drive?


Combination
1. Combination of n different objects taking r objects each time
(r n)


Example 1:
5 points are marked on a piece of paper with the condition that no
three points are collinear (i.e. on the same line). Find the number
of
(a) straight line (b) triangles
that can be drawn by joining the point?
Example 2 :
There are 5 female teachers and 8 male teachers. We are to choose a
team of 5 invigilator for an examination, with the condition that
there should be more male than females in the team. Find the
number of ways this can be done.
s
!
( )! !
n
r
n
n
C
r n r r
| |
= =
|

\ .
Event and Probabilities
Sampling space and situation
- Sampling space, S is the set of all possible
outcomes in a situation.
- Event is a set of outcomes which satisfies a given
condition.
Probability

( )
( )
( )
number of outcomes in A
P A
number of outcomes in S
n A
n S
=
=
Example 1:
A die is tossed. What is the probability of getting a
number bigger than 4?
Example 2:
A bag contains 20 pebbles, 7 of which are yellow
and the rest red. A pebble is selected at random
from the bag. What is the probability that a yellow
pebble will be selected?
Example 3
For students Pat, Qwee Choo, Rosli and Thomas are
required to stand in a row. What is the probability
that Pat and Qwee Choo will stand side-by-side?
Example 4
Two similar prize are to be given to two people
selected randomly from 5 male and 3 female
candidates. What is the probability that one of
the winner is male and the other is female?


Basic probability rules




( )
( )
( )
n A
P A
n S
=
- Since A is a subset of S, we have






Complementary of an event


0 ( ) ( )
0 ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( )
0 1
( )
0 ( ) 1
n A n S
n A n S
n S n S n S
n A
n S
P A
s s
s s
s s
s s
( ') 1 ( ) P A P A =
Example 1:
What is the probability that 2 will not appear
when a die is tossed?

Example 2:
The digits 2, 3, 4 and 5 are to be rearranged to
form 4-digit numbers without repetitions. What
is the probability that such a number is not
divisible by 5?
Exclusive Events
Composite Events
- A and B and A or B are two examples of
composite events.
- A and B is just the intersection
- A or B is the union
A B
A B
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B P A B = +
Example 1:
A die and a coin are tossed together. Find the probability that
we get
(a) a head
(b) a number greater than 2
(c) a head and a number greater than 2
(d) a head or a number greater than 2

Example 2
Two events A and B are such that

and . Find

(a)
(b)


17 1
( ) , ( )
25 5
P A P A = =
3
( )
5
P A B =
( ) P A B
( ') P A B
Example 3:
In a class of 40 students, 5 out of the 15 girls
and 7 out of the 25 boys are members of the
Mathematics Society. A student is selected
randomly. what is the probability that the
student is either a girl or a member of the
Mathematics Society?
Exclusive Event





Example 1:
A bag contains 4 red marbles, 2 white marbles and
8 black marbles. What is the probability that a
marble picked from te bag in random is either
red or white?



A B
( ) 0
A B
P A B
= C
=
( ) ( ) ( ) P A B P A P B = +
Example 2:
Mrs. Halimah invited 10 people to a party. Among
the guest are her 3 younger sisters, her elder
brother, 2 cousins and 4 friends. The first guest
has arrived. What is the probability that the first
guest is
(a) either a younger sister or a cousin?
(b) either a younger sister or a friend?
(c) either a elder brother or a cousin?
Mutually exclusive events
- we can generalize the concept of mutually
exclusiveness to four or more events.
- In this case of only two events, mutually
exclusive and exclusive are the same, and so
there is no need to use mutually in this case.
Example 1:
The school Bowling Club has 20 members from
the Upper Six Forms and 10 from the Lower
Six Forms. The club wishes to form a
committee comprising of 3 members. Find the
probability that
(a) either all the committee members are from
Upper Six or the committee members are
from Lower Six.
(b) at least one the committee members is from
Upper Six.

Conditional Events and Independent Events
Conditional events
- when whether an event happens is considered
with the condition that another event happens.
- is the event B conditional on A happening.
- is the event A conditional on B happening.
B A
A B
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
P B A
P B A
P A
P A B
P A B
P B

=
- If A and B are mutually exclusive



- Note:



( )
( ) 0
( ) ( ) ( ) 0
P A B
P B A P A P A B P B
=
= =
( ) ( ' )
( ) ( ) ( ' )
( )
( )
( )
( ) 1
( ' ) 1 ( )
P S B P A A B
P S B P A B P A B
P S B
P S B
P B
P S B
P A B P A B
=
= +

=
=
=
Example 1:
A number is selected randomly from set {1, 2,..30} If this
number chosen is odd, what is the probability that it is a
complete square?

Example 2:
The probability that a worker in company X gets a pay
increase is 0.7, the probability that he gets job promotion
is 0.5 and the probability that he gets both is 0.3.
(a) Mr Yong has been given a pay increase. What is the
probability that he is getting a job promotion as well?
(b) Mr Ravi has been promoted. What is the probability that
he is getting a pay increase too?


Example 3
4 apples are selected from a lot of 10 apples. Find the
number of possible selections.
On scrutiny, its was found that 4 of the apples are green
and they are all good. The other 6 are red annd 3 of the
red ones are rotten. If events X and Y are defined as
X = events that of the 4 apples chosen, 2 are green and 2
are red,
Y = events that of the 4 apples chosen, one is rotten,
Find







( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
( )
a P X
b P Y
c P X Y
d P Y X

Complementary events


Example 1:
The probability that Rozaimah goes shopping is
0.8 on a sunny day and 0.4 on a rainy day. It is
forecasted that the probability it will rain
tomorrow is 0.3. What is the probability that
Rozaimah will go shopping tomorrow?



( ) ( ) ( ) ( ') ( ') P B P B A P A P B A P A = +
Independent events
If A is independent of B,


Example 1:
All 40 students in a class have their own hobbies.
Among them, 7 like reading (R) only, 22 likes
games (G) only and the rest have both hobbies.
State whether the two events R and G are
(a) mutually exclusive,
(b) independent


( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
P A B P A
P A B P A P B
=
=
Example 2:
Events A and B are independent. P(A) = 0.3 and
P(B) = 0.5. Find
(a) (b)

Example 3
The probability a student is late for school is for
each day. Find the probability that the student is
late for school at least once on two consecutive
days.

( ) P A B ( ) P A B
1
4
Example 4:
A die is tossed 6 times. What is the probability that it
will give a 6 at least once?

Example 5:
Alwi and Borhan are shooting at a target. The
probability that Alwis shot hits the target is
and the probability that Borhans shot misses the
target is . Alwi shoots first, then followed by
Borhan. What is the probability that
(a) both their shots hit the target?
(b) only one of their shots hits the target?
(c) none of their shots hits the target?

1
2
1
3
1
3
Example 6:
A and B are two events such that P(A) = 0.4, P(BA) =
0.7 and P(A B) = 0.3. Find
(a) P(A B), (b) P(B)
(c) P(A B), (d) P(AB)

Example 7:
If A and B are two events and P(B) = , P(A B) =
and P(BA) = , find
(a) P(A) (b) P(AB) (c) P(AB)
State with reason, whether events A and B are
(d) independent
(e) mutually exclusive


1
6
1
12
1
3
Probability involving three or more events


If A, B and C are three mutually exclusive events,
then


If A, B and C are three independent events, then

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B C P A P B P C P A B P B C P C A P A B C = + + +
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B C P A P B P C = + +
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) P A B C P A P B P C =
Example 1:
There are three sports clubs in a secondary school, namely
Badminton, Ping Pong and Tennis Clubs. Events A, B and C
are defined as follows.
A = the event a student selected is in Badminton Club.
B = the event a student selected is in Ping Pong Club.
C = the event a student selected is in Tennis Club.
Given that P(A) =0.45, P(BC) = 0.19, P(AB) = 0.15, P(AC)
= 0.25, P(AB) = 0.6 ,P(AC) = 0.84 and P(ABC) = 0.9.
A student is selected at random. What is the probability that
the student is in
(a) Ping Pong Club?
(b) Tennis Club?
(c) All the clubs?
(d) None of the clubs?
Example 2:
Three students are taking part in a Mathematics Contest.
The probabilities that they become the champion are
0.15, 0.27 and 0.38 respectively. What is the probability
that
(a) one of them becomes the champion?
(b) none of them becomes the champion?

Example 3:
A, B and C are three candidates contesting in three different
constituencies during and election. The probabilities of
them winning are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.8 respectively. What is
the probability that
(a) Only one them wins the election?
(b) All of them win the election?
(c) At least one of them wins the election?
The tree diagram
P(A) X P(BA) = P(AB)
P(B) X P(AB) = P(AB)

A
A
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
AB
Example 1:
Based on the records, 20% of pots supplied by
Factory A have cracks, while 10% of pots supplied
by factory B have cracks. Our company purchases
pots from A and B in the ratio 3: 7. What is the
probability that a pot randomly selected has crack?

Example 2:
A bags contains 5 yellow marbles and 3 red marbles.
Two marbles are selected randomly without
replacement. What is the probability that the
marbles are of
(a) different colours? (b) the same colour?


Example 3:
Jing Hong goes to school in the morning by taking
either bus A or bus B. The probability he takes
bus A is . The probability that he is late when
taking bus A is and the probability he is late
when taking bus B is .
(a) What is the probability that Jing Hong is late on
Monday
(b) Given that he is late, what is the probability
that he has taken bus B?
1
3
1
5
1
6
Example 4:
Events X and Y are such that P(X)= , P(YX) = and P(YX)
= . With the aid of a tree diagram, find the probabilities
(a) P(Y) (b) P(X Y) (c) P(X Y)

Example 5
40% of Malaysian adult males smoke cigarettes. Among
those who smoke, there is a 0.3 probability that they will
have lung cancer. Among the non-smoker, there is also a
0.1 probability that they will have the disease.
(a) What is the probability that a Malaysian male adult
suffer from lung cancer?
(b) What is the probability that a Malaysian male adult who
is suffering from lung cancer is a smoker?
2
5
1
3
1
4
Example 6
The government allocates 50% places in Sixth Form to
Science Stream, 30% to Arts and 20% to Business. A
student in the Science Stream has 0.7 probability to
passing his STPM, a student in the Arts has 0.6
probability of passing STPM, and a student in
Business Stream has 0.8 probability of passing
STPM. A student Fatimah been admitted to the Sixth
Form.
(a) What is the probability that she will pass her
STPM?
(b) If it is already known that she has pass STPM, what
is the probability that she had entered the Science
Stream?

Example 7:
There are 12 red balls and 8 green balls in an urn.
Two balls are taken out sequence without
replacement.
(a) What is the probability that the first one is red?
(b) What is the probability the second one is red if
the first is red?
(c) What is the probability the second one is red if
the first is green?
(d) If the second one is red, what is the probability
the first is also red?