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5-1

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Lecture Slides

Elementary Statistics

Twelfth Edition

and the Triola Statistics Series

by Mario F. Triola

Section 4.5-2

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Chapter 4

Probability

4-1 Review and Preview

4-2 Basic Concepts of Probability

4-3 Addition Rule

4-4 Multiplication Rule: Basics

4-5 Multiplication Rule: Complements and

Conditional Probability

4-6 Counting

4-7 Probabilities Through Simulations

4-8 Bayes Theorem

Section 4.5-3

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Key Concepts

Probability of at least one:

Find the probability that among several trials, we

get at least one of some specified event.

Conditional probability:

Find the probability of an event when we have

additional information that some other event has

already occurred.

Section 4.5-4

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Complements: The Probability

of At Least One

The complement of getting at least one item of a

particular type is that you get no items of that

type.

At least one is equivalent to one or more.

Section 4.5-5

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Finding the Probability

of At Least One

To find the probability of at least one of

something, calculate the probability of

none and then subtract that result from 1.

That is,

P(at least one) = 1 P(none).

Section 4.5-6

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Example

Topford supplies X-Data DVDs in lots of 50, and

they have a reported defect rate of 0.5% so the

probability of a disk being defective is 0.005. It

follows that the probability of a disk being good is

0.995.

What is the probability of getting at least one

defective disk in a lot of 50?

Section 4.5-7

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Example continued

What is the probability of getting at least one

defective disk in a lot of 50?

50

at least 1 defective disk in 50

1 all 50 disks are good

1 0.995

1 0.778 0.222

P

P

Section 4.5-8

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Conditional Probability

A conditional probability of an event is a

probability obtained with the additional

information that some other event has already

occurred. denotes the conditional

probability of event B occurring, given that

event A has already occurred, and it can be

found by dividing the probability of events A

and B both occurring by the probability of

event A:

( | ) P B A

( and )

( | )

( )

P A B

P B A

P A

Section 4.5-9

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Intuitive Approach to

Conditional Probability

The conditional probability of B given A can

be found by assuming that event A has

occurred and then calculating the probability

that event B will occur.

Section 4.5-10

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Example

Refer to the table to find the probability that a

subject actually uses drugs, given that he or she

had a positive test result.

Positive Drug Test Negative Drug Test

Subject Uses Drugs 44 (True Positive) 6 (False Negative)

Subject Does

Not Use Drugs

90 (False Positive) 860 (True Negative)

Section 4.5-11

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Example - continued

Positive Drug Test Negative Drug Test

Subject Uses Drugs 44 (True Positive) 6 (False Negative)

Subject Does

Not Use Drugs

90 (False Positive) 860 (True Negative)

subject uses drugs | subject tests positive

subject uses drugs and subject tests positive

subject tests positive

44

44

1000

0.328

134

134

1000

P

P

P

Section 4.5-12

Copyright 2014, 2012, 2010 Pearson Education, Inc.

Confusion of the Inverse

To incorrectly believe that and

are the same, or to incorrectly use

one value for the other, is often called

confusion of the inverse.

( | ) P B A

( | ) P A B

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