Decision Making

Problems
Problems occur because of dissatisfaction
with the status quo.
Dissatisfaction is the result of a difference
between what people expect and what is
occurring (gap analysis).
Determine whether the problem exists
Identify the symptoms
Determine its magnitude
Problems
Read the two pages.
Please specify
what is the problem?
is there existing solution?
is there any drawbacks of existing solution?

Problems
Often, what is described as a problem (e.g.
excessive cost) may be only a symptom (e.g.
measure) of a problem (e.g. improper
inventory levels).
Studi kasus: Percetakan
Case

Design
The design phase involves finding or
developing and analyzing possible courses of
action. These include understanding the
problem and testing solutions for feasibility.
Output of design phase is a model.

Based on level of abstraction, mention what is
the three model!
Design
Relations between two variables.
Design
Further analysis
Design
A relationship between two variables may be
assumed to be linear even though in reality
there may be some nonlinear effects.
A simpler model leads to
lower development costs
easier manipulation
a faster solution
but is less representative of the real problem
can produce inaccurate results.
Design
Menurut kalian, bagaimana cara untuk
membuat model yang representative namun
efisien?
Perwakilan dari operational staff
Perwakilan dari strategic person
Ask for third opinion
Choice
Normative Models are models in which the
chosen alternative is demonstrably the best of
all possible alternatives.
To find it, the decision maker should examine
all the alternatives and prove that the one
selected is indeed the best, which is what the
person would normally want.
This process is basically optimization.
Choice
Normative decision theory is based on the
following assumptions of rational decision
makers:
Humans are economic beings whose objective is to
maximize the attainment of goals; that is, the
decision maker is rational.
All viable alternatives and their consequences, or at
least the probability and the values of the
consequences, are known.
Decision makers have an order or preference that
enables them to rank the desirability of all
consequences of the analysis (best to worst)
Choice
Jenis Olahraga Waktu Kalori yang dibakar Harga

Tipe
Olahraga
Berenang gaya
dada
1 jam 620 kalori Rp 20.000 4
Jogging dengan
kecepatan 5 km
per jam
1 jam 310 kalori Rp 0 4
Yoga 1 jam 155 kalori Rp 50.000 2
Bulutangkis 1 jam 279 kalori Rp 15.000 2
Bersepeda dengan
kecepatan 10
km/jam
1 jam 248 kalori Rp 25.000 4
Aerobic 1 jam 403 kalori Rp 40.000 2
Choice
Desys goal?
Reduce more calories
In a short time(an hour)
With minimum expenses
Can be done at anytime (without partner)
Choice
Alternative and Consequences
Berenang gaya dada > Memerlukan biaya
Aerobic > Memerlukan biaya yang mahal untuk
setiap pertemuan > Membutuhkan instruktur
sehingga jadwal olahraga bergantung pada orang
lain.
Jogging > Mengeluarkan kalori yang tidak terlalu
besar > Kaki saya yang rentan terkilir apabila
jogging


Choice
Selecting viable alternatives by sorting Total Nilai

Jenis
Olahraga
Waktu
Kalori yang
dibakar(40%)
Harga
(35%)
Tipe
Olahraga
(25%)
Total Nilai
Berenang
gaya dada
1 jam 248 0,0175 1 249,0175
Jogging (5
km/jam)
1 jam 124 0,35 1 125,35
Yoga 1 jam 62 0,0007 0,5 62,5007
Bulutangkis 1 jam 111,6 0,0233 0,5 112,1233
Bersepeda
(10 km/jam)
1 jam 99,2 0,014 1 100,214
Aerobic
1 jam 161,2 0,00875 0,5 161,70875
Choice
Descriptive Models describe things as they
believed to be.
These models are typically mathematically based.
Descriptive models are extremely useful in DSS
for investigating the consequences of various
alternative courses of action under different
configurations of inputs and processes.
However, there is no guarantee that an
alternative selected is optimal. In many cases, it is
only satisfactory.
Choice
Please take a look for a while and create a
story based on this CLD
Choice
Simulation is the most common descriptive
modeling method.
Simulation is the imitation of reality and has been
applied to many areas of decision making.
Usage of descriptive models include the
following:
Complex decision
Environmental impact analysis
Financial planning
Information flow
Choice
According to Simon (1977), satisfactory
solution is something less than the best.
The usual reasons for satisficing are
Time pressures (selak kasep)
The ability to achieve optimization, there may be a
best solution, but it would be difficult or nearly
impossible.
A better solution is not worth the marginal cost to
obtain (gak nyucuk sama selisih cost)
Next Meeting Agenda
Bagi mahasiswa yang papernya masih dalam
status Rejected harap mengumpulkan ulang
dengan due date besok 23:55.
Print paper satu mahasiswa membawa satu
paper.
Walaupun papernya berdua, namun tiap
mahasiswa membawa printout sendiri2.